An availability bias in professional judgment

When branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch-all probability has been interpreted as an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ form of the availability bias. The present work replicates this underestimation bias with professional managers. It then demonstrates the effectiveness of a corrective tactic, extending the tree by generating additional causes, and also reveals that more easily retrieved short-term causes dominate the generation process. These results do not differ across managers' culture, education or experience. After evaluating such alternative explanations as category redefinition, we conclude that availability is a major cause, though possibly not the sole cause, of the underestimation bias.     

Reversal of genetic homeostasis in laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster under long-term selection for geotaxis and estimates of gene correlates: evolution of behavior-genetic systems

Among Drosophila melanogaster, divergently selected for geotaxis intermittently over 600 generations (28 years), about 80,000 animals have been analyzed behavior-genetically. Each major chromosome pair from two lines was isogenized on an unselected isogenic background. Measurement of their behavioral effects revealed the relative magnitudes II greater than III greater than X for the negatively geotactic (high) line and X greater than III greater than II for the positively geotactic (low) line. When reversing selection for the now phenotypically stable high and low lines and then repeatedly relaxing the reversals, a new genetic homeostasis in the low line was indicated by the return of the reversed-line average scores towards the low extreme; that is, the low line has attained a stable equilibrium for positive geotaxis, an uncharacteristic behavior and an effect not seen before 1979. This change suggests the recent evolution of a new coadaptation among genes. Although not as conclusive, a similar genetic interpretation is suggested for the high line.     

Rodents' (Rattus, Mesocricetus, and Meriones) use of learned caloric information in diet selection

When given a choice between two mashes of equal caloric density but differing flavors, rats (Rattus norvegicus) show a robust preference for the flavor previously associated with a higher calorie food. This finding suggests that rats may identify food quality by sensory cues such as taste. Our initial attempt to show this effect in the golden Syrian hamster (Mesocricetus auratus) failed, apparently because of this species's tendency to store both high- and low-calorie mashes in their cheek pouches during conditioning trials. Initially we attempted to circumvent this seeming morphological constraint on learning by presenting low- and high-calorie mashes on alternate days. This procedure too failed to produce evidence of flavor-caloric learning, although this procedure produced robust learning in another rodent, the Mongolian gerbil (Meriones unguiculatus). Another method of preventing cheek pouching--concurrently presenting low- and high-calorie liquid diets--was more successful; then, hamsters showed clear evidence of flavor-caloric learning. Thus, although flavor-caloric learning is demonstrable in species of rodent besides the rat, the circumstances under which it occurs vary.     

Learning from lectures: The effect of varying the detail in lecture handouts on note-taking and recall

Previous research on the effect of lecture handouts on student learning indicates that students who are given skeletal handouts usually perform better in course examinations than students who take all their own notes. The present study investigates whether the amount of detail in the handout is a critical factor in this. A randomized groups experiment was conducted in the context of a course on dental surgery. Four lecture handout conditions (headings and full text; headings and key points; headings only; no supplementary materials) were compared on tests 2 days and 2 weeks after the lecture. The significant differences between conditions were: ‘headings only’ better than ‘headings and key points’ on the first test; ‘headings only’ better than ‘no supplementary materials’ on the second test; and ‘headings and full text’ better than ‘no supplementary materials’ on the second test. These results indicate that the amount of detail is a critical factor in handout effectiveness.     

Computerized Career Information and Guidance Systems: Caveat Emptor

Computerized career information and guidance systems, although now commonplace, have received little psychometric scrutiny. The authors argue for examining these systems in the same way in which paper and pencil instruments are assessed. Consideration is also given to issues related to programming, technical-service problems, and staffing.     

Coping with the exposure to torture

This paper describes approaches taken at the International Rehabilitation and Research Centre in Copenhagen to helping torture victims and their families cope with the exposure to and aftermath of torture.     

Treatment recommendations for mentally disordered offenders: More than roulette?

Clinical judgments on the treatability and prognosis of mentally disordered offeenders (MDO) may strongly influence legal dispositions and the availability of treatment resources. This study examined 1,238 discharge summaries for MDOs referred for court assessments. Psychiatrists evidenced marked variability in how often they recommended treatment and how frequently they judged patients to have a poor prognosis. Two logit analyses suggested that diagnosis and consultation by other clinicians were associated with (a) treatment recommendations (i.e., Axis I diagnosis and social work consultations) and (b) prognosis (i.e., Axis II diagnosis and psychology consultations).