Individual differences in reverse Hindsight bias: I never thought something like chernobyl would happen. Did I?

Hindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition.     

Retroactive interference in the retention of prose: A reconsideration and new evidence

The sensitivity of naturalistic prose material to retroactive interference (RI) was investigated in three experiments, with due consideration given to the conditions known to produce RI in non-prose material. In experiment 1, unrelated, related, and nearly identical (parapharase) prose passage conditions yielded a pattern of results very similar to those obtained with non-prose material, with only the related condition associated with significant amounts of RI. Based upon these results and a few simple assumptions, a classificatory scheme was developed within which predictions were made regarding RI in related prose material. Several such predictions were tested and confirmed in Experiments 2 and 3. It was concluded that the many previous failures to detect RI in the retention of prose may be attributed to factors other than any inherent insensitivity of the material itself, and that RI may be just as predictable in prose as it is non-prose material.     

Learning from lectures: The effect of varying the detail in lecture handouts on note-taking and recall

Previous research on the effect of lecture handouts on student learning indicates that students who are given skeletal handouts usually perform better in course examinations than students who take all their own notes. The present study investigates whether the amount of detail in the handout is a critical factor in this. A randomized groups experiment was conducted in the context of a course on dental surgery. Four lecture handout conditions (headings and full text; headings and key points; headings only; no supplementary materials) were compared on tests 2 days and 2 weeks after the lecture. The significant differences between conditions were: ‘headings only’ better than ‘headings and key points’ on the first test; ‘headings only’ better than ‘no supplementary materials’ on the second test; and ‘headings and full text’ better than ‘no supplementary materials’ on the second test. These results indicate that the amount of detail is a critical factor in handout effectiveness.     

Marx,technocracy, and the corporatist ethos

Communism, in Marx' mind, did not mean simple liberation, but the economics of liberation. The realm of necessity (technē) was to become the primary field for emancipation (praxis), the latter taking form in new institutions, responsive to real socio-economic needs. In this sense, the problem of technocracy and the corporatist ethos in Marx are part of a broader discursive structure, which links the experiences of workers through the industrial revolution with the philosophies ofpraxis as they reach from Hegel through Marković.     

Many stimuli are frightening,but some are more frightening than others: The contributions of preparedness,dangerousness, and unpredictability to making a stimulus fearful

The nonrandom distribution of situational fears has been explained by evolutionary survival relevance of specific fears. Thirty-eight stimuli were taken from the literature on preparedness and were scored on fearfulness, objective dangerousness, and spatiotemporal unpredictability by three separate groups of students. The same items were scored on survival relevance by 15 biologists. Fearfulness of cues significantly correlated not only with survival relevance but also, and even more strongly, with dangerousness and unpredictability. While the fear/survival relevance association virtually disappeared when the unpredictability contribution was partialed out, the fear/unpredictability correlation was only marginally affected when controlling for survival relevance. This suggests that nonrandomness of feared stimuli may result from the spatiotemporal unpredictability that is attributed to these stimuli. The current practice of using snakes and spiders as phobia-relevant, and flowers and mushrooms as neutral, cues was not justified by the ratings of the 15 independent experts.This study was supported in part by a grant from the Dutch Organization for Fundamental Research (ZWO/Psychon, 560-268-001).     

MMPI profiles of adolescents charged with homicide

Study of adolescent violence has been impeded by failure to distinguish among the circumstances in which youth engage in violent behavior. The present study investigated MMPI profiles of 36 adolescent murderers and a control group of 18 adolescents charged with larceny. Homicide cases were subgrouped into those who committed homicide secondary to another crime (e.g., robbery or rape) and those who acted in the context of interpersonal conflict with the victim. While there were no significant differences between homicide and larceny groups, crime and conflict subgroups were significantly different on scales F, Hs, Hy, and Sc.     

Relaxation therapy for tension headache in the elderly: a prospective study

We evaluated the effects of an 8-week progressive muscle-relaxation therapy regimen on the headache activity of 10 elderly tension-headache subjects. Posttreatment assessment at 3 months revealed significant decreases in overall headache activity (50% or greater) in 7 subjects. Significant clinical or statistical prepost differences, or both, were also found for the number of headache-free days, peak headache activity, and medication index. This is the first prospective study of tension headache in an elderly population, and, unlike previous retrospective studies, it suggests that relaxation therapy may be an effective intervention in the treatment of such headaches.     

Leadership behavior,group climate and outcome in group psychotherapy: A study of outpatient psychotherapy groups

A recent clinical study of outpatient psychotherapy groups in a community mental health center explored the linkage between group leadership variables, group climate, and outcome. The study involved nine outpatient therapy groups, over 50 group clients, and several group therapists. A repeated measures design involving assessment of clients' outcome and level of functioning, group leadership style, and group climate was used to assess changes over a 6-month period. The findings suggest: 1) a reduction in symptoms and improved functioning for clients; 2) a similarity of perceptions by members and leaders of perceived leadership behaviors and group climate; 3) the presence of direct and indirect influences of group climate and leadership behavior on clients' outcome; and 4) a linkage between leadership behavior and group climate with the theoretical orientation of the group. The findings of the research are discussed in relation to the understanding of specific effects in group psychotherapy and the implications for construction of group psychotherapy theory.The authors would like to thank Robert Dies, Ph.D., for his helpful suggestions in the early phase of this study; Roy MacKenzie, M.D., for permission to use the Group Climate Questionnaire; Diane DePalma, Ph.D., for permission to use the Global Leadership Behavior Index; Chris Boltwood, B.A., for her untiring efforts in administering the instruments and coding and entering the data; and most importantly, the psychotherapy group members and the group therapists for their cooperation in this endeavor—without their help, this clinical study would not have been possible.A version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Group Psychotherapy Association, 1987, New Orleans, Louisiana. Lenore Phipps, R.N., M.S., C.S., was formerly Director, Group Psychotherapy Program at Park Ridge Mental Health Center, Rochester, now in private practice at Guild Medical Center, Norwood, MA 02062.