The public's probabilistic numeracy: How tasks,education and exposure to games of chance shape it

As we navigate a world full of uncertainties and risks, dominated by statistics, we need to be able to think statistically. Very few studies investigating people's ability to understand simple concepts and rules from probability theory have drawn representative samples from the public. For this reason we investigated a representative sample of 1000 Swiss citizens, using six probabilistic problems. Most reasoned appropriately in problems representing pure applications of probability theory, but failed to do so in approximations of real‐world scenarios – a disparity we replicated in a sample of first‐year psychology students. Additionally, education is associated with probabilistic numeracy in the former but not the latter type of problems. We discuss possible reasons for these task disparities and suggest that gaining a comprehensive picture of citizens' probabilistic competence and its determinants requires using both types of tasks. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Acute episodes of predator exposure in conjunction with chronic social instability as an animal model of post-traumatic stress disorder

People who are exposed to horrific, life-threatening experiences are at risk for developing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Some of the symptoms of PTSD include persistent anxiety, exaggerated startle, cognitive impairments and increased sensitivity to yohimbine, an alpha(2)-adrenergic receptor antagonist. We have taken into account the conditions known to induce PTSD, as well as factors responsible for long-term maintenance of the disorder, to develop an animal model of PTSD. Adult male Sprague-Dawley rats were administered a total of 31 days of psychosocial stress, composed of acute and chronic components. The acute component was a 1-h stress session (immobilization during cat exposure), which occurred on Days 1 and 11. The chronic component was that on all 31 days the rats were given unstable housing conditions. We found that psychosocially stressed rats had reduced growth rate, reduced thymus weight, increased adrenal gland weight, increased anxiety, an exaggerated startle response, cognitive impairments, greater cardiovascular and corticosterone reactivity to an acute stressor and heightened responsivity to yohimbine. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of acute inescapable episodes of predator exposure administered in conjunction with daily social instability as an animal model of PTSD.     

What coping tells about personality

In this study, 123 participants (non‐psychology students) who responded to an interpersonal stress situation staged in the laboratory were judged by unacquainted observers in terms of the Big Five dimensions, intelligence and social attractiveness. Coping behaviour appeared to predict personality impressions in a way that mirrors the relations between personality and coping observed in previous research: Overall, higher levels of Extraversion (E), Agreeableness (A), Conscientiousness (C) and Openness to experience (O) (as well as intelligence and social attractiveness) were predicted by problem‐focussed behaviour and cognitive restructuring, whereas higher levels of Neuroticism (N) were predicted by withdrawal/passivity. The interpersonal impact of the particular coping reactions, as indicated by a positive personality impression, were largely inconsistent with their impact on affect following the stress induction. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian journey-to-crime modelling of single and multiple crime-type series in Baltimore County,MD

This study tested different Bayesian Journey-to-Crime (JTC) models on a sample group of 850 serial offenders apprehended in Baltimore County, MD from 1993 to 1997. In this research, Bayesian JTC models were being used to predict the home locations of the offenders. The sample group data included 133 assaults, 90 burglaries, 497 larcenies, 81 robberies, and 49 vehicle thefts. The main question this research aimed to answer was whether the addition of crimes of a different type to an existing crime series of a single type would result in more accurate and/or precise Bayesian JTC models. The standard practice by law enforcement has been to consider the same-type crime series only when modelling the anchor point of the offender. Similarly, in research, geographic profiles have been constructed exclusively with the same-type crime series. The results of this study clearly indicated that the inclusion of crimes of a different type into a single crime-type series will result in significantly more accurate and more precise Bayesian JTC models. In contrast, crime series with predominantly assault and burglary showed results that were inconclusive or indicated no significant differences. These results should encourage law enforcement agencies to re-evaluate their standard practice of constructing geographic profiles with only the same-type crime series. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CROSS-CULTURAL VARIATIONS IN RELATIONSHIP RULES

A British study of the informal rules of 22 social relationships was replicated among Japanese, Hong Kong and Italian samples. Subjects were asked to rate the importance of 33 common and varying numbers of relationship-specific rules to each of these relationships on a 9-point bipolar scale. Multivariate analyses showed each culture has a structure of highly endorsed rules, although a number of cross-cultural differences emerged in the nature of these rules, particularly those relating to intimacy. Certain cross-cultural predictions were confirmed.     

Construct similarity, self-meaningfulness, and interpersonal attraction

Self-meaningfulness, a concept arising from personal construct theory research, has been defined in terms of the importance of the self in the personal construct system Forty-two undergraduate volunteers completed Repertory Grid ratings of the self and 15 individuals (five liked, five disliked, and five toward whom the subject was neutral) It was found that high self-meaningfulness individuals' ratings of attraction were more strongly associated with the perception of similarity than were the ratings of low self-meaningfulness subjects High self-meaningfulness subjects saw liked individuals as significantly more similar to the self than did low self-meaningfulness subjects In addition, liked, neutral, and disliked figures were seen as significantly different from one another on the similarity to self-measure for high self-meaningfulness subjects Only disliked figures were judged as more distant from the self for low self-meaningfulness subjects These findings were discussed in terms of the importance of investigating individual differences in similarity-attraction     

Stroop-like interference in chess players' imagery: An unexplored possibility to be revealed by the adapted moving-spot task

Summary A group of highly skilled chess players and two control groups of subjects (nonskilled players and nonplayers) participated in a moving-spot task (cf. Attneave & Curlee, 1983). They had to move either a spot or one of several chess pieces within an imaginary grid according to instructions given by the experimenter (the imaginary motion of the imaginary object consisted of a quasirandom sequence of steps in the direction — up, right, left, or down). The general findings were as follows: (1) chess players' error rates were lower than those in the nonplayer group; (2) in a moving-spot condition there were no significant differences in the efficiency of skilled vs. nonskilled player groups; (3) in a moving chess-piece condition, ranges of spatial errors differed for chess-player and nonplayer groups, depending on the symbolic meaning of the chess pieces in the former group; (4) in a moving chess-piece condition we also found tendencies for Stroop-like interference in the group of skilled players (e. g., bishop moving illegally up, right, etc.); (5) all groups benefitted from the use of a checkerboard instead of an 8 × 8 grid as the imaginary spatial framework within which to move a piece; (6) thepost hoc analysis showed that the two small selected subgroups of subjects comprising those who used either pure visual strategy or pure chess-annotation strategy were susceptible to some Stroop-like interference and that the set of pieces with the highest incongruity of moves (bishop, knight) yielded higher error rates than the set of pieces that had congruity of moves (king, rook). Taken together, these results seem to indicate that visuospatial tasks like Attneave and Curlee's (1983) moving-spot task are performed neither on the basis of a static picture-in-the-head type of visual image, for which it is just the same whether one or another type of piece is imaginarily moved, nor on the basis of purely symbolic or propositional operations that bear no relation to the visual-configurational and spatial-localizational representations. Imagery seems to constitute a dynamicprocess of interplay between visuospatial and verbal-propositional codes.     

Self-reported assertion and aggression among violent offenders with high or low levels of overcontrolled hostility

Self-report measures of personality, assertion, aggression and difficulty with social situations were completed by 66 male prisoners convicted for violent offences. Inmates were divided into overcontrolled and less-controlled groups on the basis of MMPI OH scores. No significant differences emerged on total ASES Assertion scale scores or on the four social-situation difficulty items dealing with assertiveness. However, overcontrolled men scored significantly lower on the Negative Assertion subscale and on the Aggression scale, as well as on two social-situation difficulty items dealing with the control of aggression. Less-controlled males showed a significant positive correlation between Aggression scale scores and negative assertion which was not obtained for the overcontrolled group. Results were discussed in terms of the different treatment needs of the two groups when using assertion or social-skills training with offender populations.     

Assessing different aspects of pretend play within a play setting: Towards a standardized assessment of pretend play in young children

The present study suggests a method with which to assess the interrelations between different types of pretend play. In contrast to standard methods in this area, the various types of pretend play were measured within an interactive play scenario. The pretend play tasks were included in a semi‐structured play sequence and presented to young children between 24 and 30 months of age (N=30). Self‐ and doll‐directed pretence, object substitution, pretence with realistic objects, and self‐initiated pretend play, as well as the understanding that an object had been given two identities was tested. The capacity for dual representation was assessed by asking for the real and pretend identity of an object. Age differences were found in the overall score for elicited pretence but not for all items separately. Individual items also differed in difficulty and thus are of potential use for assessing intraindividual differences in pretend play. Findings are discussed in the context of current theories and methods concerning the development and assessment of pretend play.     

RECONCEPTUALIZING ISSUES THAT AFFECT WOMEN'S SEXUAL DECISION-MAKING AND SEXUAL FUNCTIONING

This paper addresses five existing societal myths and their underlying faulty assumptions about women's sexuality. The following myths are examined: (a) women possess adequate sexual knowledge to understand their sexual needs, (b) they know how to communicate about sex, (c) they engage in sex because they want to do so, (d) if they are sexually active, they enjoy sex, and (e) they use their knowledge of sex to protect themselves from sexually transmitted diseases and pregnancy. These myths need to be considered when conducting research and developing interventions designed to decrease women's sexual risk-taking. Research that assesses women's levels of factual sexual knowledge, comfort and skills discussing sexual information, and literacy is needed. The importance of examining ethnic, cultural, economic, religious, relationship factors, and psychological issues is discussed in order to encourage research relevant to women's sexual decision-making.