Convergence to the Truth Without Countable Additivity

Must probabilities be countably additive? On the one hand, arguably, requiring countable additivity is too restrictive. As de Finetti pointed out, there are situations in which it is reasonable to use merely finitely additive probabilities. On the other hand, countable additivity is fruitful. It can be used to prove deep mathematical theorems that do not follow from finite additivity alone. One of the most philosophically important examples of such a result is the Bayesian convergence to the truth theorem, which says that conditional probabilities converge to 1 for true hypotheses and to 0 for false hypotheses. In view of the long-standing debate about countable additivity, it is natural to ask in what circumstances finitely additive theories deliver the same results as the countably additive theory. This paper addresses that question and initiates a systematic study of convergence to the truth in a finitely additive setting. There is also some discussion of how the formal results can be applied to ongoing debates in epistemology and the philosophy of science.

     

Can Money Buy Happiness? Evidence for European Countries

This research comes to empirical investigate the influence of income on the level of happiness. Can money buy happiness? It’s one of the most frequently disputed and researched questions of all time. At first sight, it seems easy to assign a simple answer: yes or no, but the correct answer is more difficult than these. We start from the assumption that people need to be happy but also need financial resources to feel safe. We used a panel analysis on a sample of 26 European countries over the period 2008–2016. We found that happiness increases with individual income until a threshold of 27,913 Euro per year (rounded to 35,000 USD) in European countries. Also, we found that culture plays an essential role in the perception of happiness. Moreover, our results indicate that a lower power distance, a high individualism, a low level of uncertainty avoidance and a high indulgence statistically increase the level of happiness.

     

EARSHOT: A Minimal Neural Network Model of Incremental Human Speech Recognition

Despite the lack of invariance problem (the many-to-many mapping between acoustics and percepts), human listeners experience phonetic constancy and typically perceive what a speaker intends. Most models of human speech recognition (HSR) have side-stepped this problem, working with abstract, idealized inputs and deferring the challenge of working with real speech. In contrast, carefully engineered deep learning networks allow robust, real-world automatic speech recognition (ASR). However, the complexities of deep learning architectures and training regimens make it difficult to use them to provide direct insights into mechanisms that may support HSR. In this brief article, we report preliminary results from a two-layer network that borrows one element from ASR, long short-term memory nodes, which provide dynamic memory for a range of temporal spans. This allows the model to learn to map real speech from multiple talkers to semantic targets with high accuracy, with human-like timecourse of lexical access and phonological competition. Internal representations emerge that resemble phonetically organized responses in human superior temporal gyrus, suggesting that the model develops a distributed phonological code despite no explicit training on phonetic or phonemic targets. The ability to work with real speech is a major advance for cognitive models of HSR.     

Disentangling the far transfer of language comprehension gains using latent mediation models

While we know that interventions targeting oral language can be effective, little is known about what drives these effects. In this study, we examine whether gains in transfer measures are mediated through the specific words that are trained in a language intervention. Based on a large‐scale randomized controlled trial of language intervention in 4‐ to 5‐year‐old children, latent mediation models were used to disentangle oral language gains in transfer measures. The results first showed that the effects of the language intervention and the transfer effects are generated through expressive rather than receptive measures of language. Second, we found that the effects of the intervention on intermediate transfer measures of language were mediated through the ability to define the trained words. Third, and critically, for far transfer measures that did not contain any of the trained words, the effects were mediated through the trained words. The findings relate to theories of transfer and support the idea that far transfer is possible, at least within the same domain. In addition, it seems that effects on receptive language skills are difficult to obtain and that what is improved is instead the children's ability to express themselves and use procedures to explain words. Thus, to optimize intervention effects, future studies should focus on expressive language.     

The effects of defendant remorse on mock juror decisions in a malpractice case

The purpose of this study was to observe the effects of defendant remorse on monetary damages awarded to a plaintiff in a malpractice case. In two experiments, the physician-defendant expressed remorse at the time of the incident and again at trial, expressed remorse at trial, explicitly demonstrated a lack of remorse at trial, or made no mention of remorse (or a lack thereof). Participants decided how much money to award to the plaintiff and evaluated both the plaintiff and the defendant on several dimensions. Participants awarded greater compensation when the physician expressed remorse at the time of the incident than in the other conditions, both when the plaintiff was the injured patient's spouse in a wrongful death suit (experiment 1) and when the patient sued on his own behalf (experiment 2). This effect of remorse was greater for males than for females (experiment 1) and for relatively severely injured plaintiffs (experiment 2).     

The importance of job autonomy, cognitive ability, and job-related skill for predicting role breadth and job performance

Role theory suggests and empirical research has found that there is considerable variation in how broadly individuals define their jobs. We investigated the theoretically meaningful yet infrequently studied relationships between incumbent job autonomy, cognitive ability, job-related skill, role breadth, and job performance. Using multiple data sources and multiple measurement occasions in a field setting, we found that job autonomy, cognitive ability, and job-related skill were positively related to role breadth, accounting for 23% of the variance in role breadth. In addition, role breadth was positively related to job performance and was found to mediate the relationship between job autonomy, cognitive ability, job-related skill, and job performance. These results add to our understanding of the factors that predict role breadth, as well as having implications for how job aspects and individual characteristics are translated into performance outcomes and the treatment of variability in incumbent reports of job tasks.     

Intervention Groups for Adolescents With Conduct Problems: Is Aggregation Harmful or Helpful?

Past research has suggested that the aggregation of deviant peers during treatment may cause harmful effects (T. J. Dishion, J. McCord, & F. Poulin, 1999). This study compared the effectiveness of problem-solving skills training groups in which all members had conduct problems (pure group condition) with groups that consisted of adolescents with and without behavior problems (mixed group condition). Participants were 139 sixth- and seventh-graders (mean age = 12.7; 63% male; 55% White) enrolled at public middle schools. Pre-, post-, and 6-month follow-up data were collected, along with intervention process variables. Results showed that, contrary to the deviancy training hypothesis, adolescents in the pure-group condition engaged in more adaptive in-session behavior and received lower scores on the parent and teacher ratings of externalizing behavior at postintervention than those in the mixed-group condition. Mediation analyses showed that the deviancy training that occurred in the mixed-group condition accounted for their worse postintervention scores, findings consistent with the deviancy training hypothesis.     

Validity of test score interpretations for three self-concept measures based on differing theoretical models

Three theoretical models have been proposed to represent self-concept: (a) unidimensional; (b) multidimensional; (c) multidimensional hierarchical. Inventories have been developed under each of the three competing theoretical models; which model best represents self-concept is unclear. Typically, self-concept construct validation has utilized various approaches including correlational, multitrait-multimethod, and factor analytic methods. Another method, however, for assessing validity would be to determine the consequences of score interpretations using different measures specific to each of the theoretical models. This paper examined Messick's notion (1989) of the validity of test-score interpretations as applied to three of the most widely used measures derived under each of the three different theoretical models of self-concept. Results suggest that overall multidimensional measures are more consistent in classifying individual's self-concept than unidimensional measures.     

Behavioral treatment of insomnia in older adults: an open clinical trial comparing two interventions

Fifty-five insomniacs, 60 years or above, participated in a behavioral treatment program, comparing two interventions (sleep hygiene+stimulus control vs sleep hygiene+relaxation tape). Half of the subjects were randomized to a waiting-list condition prior to treatment. No significant changes were observed during the waiting-list period. During the treatment period however, the subjects improved on several sleep parameters, and treatment gains were maintained at a 6-month follow-up. The effects of treatment were greater for nocturnal measures (e.g. sleep onset latency and total sleep time) as compared to daytime measures (e.g. life satisfaction, daytime alertness) and not-targeted behavior (medication use). There were no differences in treatment effects for the two interventions.     

Experimental tests of an attitudinal theory of the gender gap in voting

This research examined the hypothesis that gender gaps in voting stem from differences in the extent to which men and women agree with candidates' issue stances. Two initial experiments portraying candidates by their sex and attitudes and a third experiment that also included information about political party produced the predicted attitudinal gender-congeniality effect: Participants of each sex reported greater likelihood, compared with participants of the other sex, of voting for the candidate who endorsed positions typically favored more by their own sex than the other sex. In addition, this gender-congeniality effect was present among Republican and independent participants but absent among Democratic participants because Democratic men as well as women favored candidates who advocated the positions typically favored by women. Interpretation invoked the importance of group interest based on gender as an influence on women's voting.