Simplified approaches for multicriteria decision making under uncertainty

The problem of uncertainty in the outcome of decisions has tended to be glossed over by many MCDM methods, with the exception of multiattribute utility theory (MAUT). MAUT does, however, require quite complicated preference elicitations and knowledge of the full multivariate distribution of outcomes. Results from a series of simulation studies indicate that the preference orderings of MAUT are only minimally changed when using a simple additive aggregation of marginal utilities, especially in relation to the natural imprecisions inherent in preference elicitation. It is shown in the simulations that by far the most critical aspect of multicriteria decision analysis under uncertainty is not the form of aggregation, but the correct elicitation of marginal utilities which properly represent decision maker preferences over gambles. We relate the results obtained here to other results on the approximation of distributions by three- or five-point discrete distributions, and suggest that the use of deterministic MCDM methods of any form (not necessarily value function techniques), applied to an extended formulation in which each criterion measure is repeated for three or five ‘scenarios’, can be justified.     

Implicit associations between anxiety-related symptoms and catastrophic consequences in high anxiety sensitive individuals

Anxiety sensitivity refers to the fear of anxiety-related physical sensations arising from beliefs that these sensations have harmful consequences (Reiss & McNally, 1985). The present study examined whether individuals with high (vs. low) anxiety sensitivity show stronger implicit associations in memory between anxiety-related symptoms, as opposed to neutral body parts, and harmful, as compared to harmless, consequences. A total of 22 undergraduate students (14 F, 8 M) completed the Extrinsic Affective Simon Task (EAST; De Houwer, 2003). Results indicated that high anxiety sensitive individuals (n = 10) tended to implicitly associate harmful consequences with anxiety-related symptoms. Their performance was significantly faster on trials where target words related to anxiety symptoms were mapped on to the same response key as harmful consequences. No significant difference in performance was found for low anxiety sensitive individuals (n = 12) or when target words were body parts unlikely related to diseases. Between-group differences persisted after controlling for trait anxiety and history of panic attacks, but not when illness-related beliefs were introduced as a covariate. Identifying this implicit association bias provides additional empirical support for the concept of anxiety sensitivity.