The effect of iconicity of visual displays on statistical reasoning: evidence in favor of the null hypothesis

Knowing which properties of visual displays facilitate statistical reasoning bears practical and theoretical implications. Therefore, we studied the effect of one property of visual diplays?– iconicity (i.e., the resemblance of a visual sign to its referent)?– on Bayesian reasoning. Two main accounts of statistical reasoning predict different effect of iconicity on Bayesian reasoning. The ecological-rationality account predicts a positive iconicity effect, because more highly iconic signs resemble more individuated objects, which tap better into an evolutionary-designed frequency-coding mechanism that, in turn, facilitates Bayesian reasoning. The nested-sets account predicts a null iconicity effect, because iconicity does not affect the salience of a nested-sets structure—the factor facilitating Bayesian reasoning processed by a general reasoning mechanism. In two well-powered experiments (N = 577), we found no support for a positive iconicity effect across different iconicity levels that were manipulated in different visual displays (meta-analytical overall effect: log OR = ?0.13, 95 % CI [?0.53, 0.28]). A Bayes factor analysis provided strong evidence in favor of the null hypothesis—the null iconicity effect. Thus, these findings corroborate the nested-sets rather than the ecological-rationality account of statistical reasoning.     

Implied-Meaning Analysis of the Currian Conditional

Expanding on the recent research of Stephen Read and Catarina Dutilh Novaes concerning Thomas Bradwardine's theory of truth, the present paper makes an effort to analyse the Currian conditional in terms of the so-called ‘Bradwardine principle’, i.e. the principle that meaning is closed under entailment. Based upon two possible applications of this approach, alternative solutions to the issues of semantic pathology and trivialisation of deductive systems are presented.     

Liberation Theology After the End of History: An Exchange

Book Reviewed in this article:
Daniel M. Bell, Liberation Theology After the End of History: The Refusal to Cease Suffering     

Will Bootstrap Clustering Resuscitate Repertory Grid Assessment of Cognitive Complexity? Convergence with Integrative and Dialogical Complexity Suggests It Could

This article is concerned with an introduction and examination of a new cognitive complexity index derived from repertory grid data. Our approach follows Heckmann's and Bell’s introduction of bootstrap clustering of grid data. In order to examine the validity of the new index, we reanalyze data from an older study. The reanalysis showed that the new index correlated significantly with other independent complexity indices: integrative complexity and dialogical complexity. The directions of correlations were in accordance with complexity theories that underlie the indices. These findings support the validity of the cognitive complexity index based on bootstrap clustering.