Bayesian Diagnostics of Hidden Markov Structural Equation Models with Missing Data

Cocaine is a type of drug that functions to increase the availability of the neurotransmitter dopamine in the brain. However, cocaine dependence or abuse is highly related to an increased risk of psychiatric disorders and deficits in cognitive performance, attention, and decision-making abilities. Given the chronic and persistent features of drug addiction, the progression of abstaining from cocaine often evolves across several states, such as addiction to, moderate dependence on, and swearing off cocaine. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are well suited to the characterization of longitudinal data in terms of a set of unobservable states, and have increasingly been used to uncover the dynamic heterogeneity in progressive diseases or activities. However, the existence of outliers or influential points may misidentify the hidden states and distort the associated inference. In this study, we develop a Bayesian local influence procedure for HMMs with latent variables in the presence of missing data. The proposed model enables us to investigate the dynamic heterogeneity of multivariate longitudinal data, reveal how the interrelationships among latent variables change from one state to another, and simultaneously conduct statistical diagnosis for the given data, model assumptions, and prior inputs. We apply the proposed procedure to analyze a dataset collected by the UCLA center for advancing longitudinal drug abuse research. Several outliers or influential points that seriously influence estimation results are identified and removed. The proposed procedure also discovers the effects of treatment and individuals’ psychological problems on cocaine use behavior and delineates their dynamic changes across the cocaine-addiction states.     

Children's knowledge of deceptive gaze cues and its relation to their actual lying behavior

Eye gaze plays a pivotal role during communication. When interacting deceptively, it is commonly believed that the deceiver will break eye contact and look downward. We examined whether children’s gaze behavior when lying is consistent with this belief. In our study, 7- to 15-year-olds and adults answered questions truthfully (Truth questions) or untruthfully (Lie questions) or answered questions that required thinking (Think questions). Younger participants (7- and 9-year-olds) broke eye contact significantly more when lying compared with other conditions. Also, their averted gaze when lying differed significantly from their gaze display in other conditions. In contrast, older participants did not differ in their durations of eye contact or averted gaze across conditions. Participants’ knowledge about eye gaze and deception increased with age. This knowledge significantly predicted their actual gaze behavior when lying. These findings suggest that with increased age, participants became increasingly sophisticated in their use of display rule knowledge to conceal their deception.     

藏传佛教经文典籍的木板雕刻工艺风采

论文就独具特色的藏传佛教经文典籍木板雕刻的主要题材、雕版形制、材质加工、雕刻工艺、印制技术;藏文典籍经书封版的形制、构图、纹样装饰内涵、雕刻工艺特色;及经文页面装帧设计的形式三部份作了较全面的论述.从中折射出了藏民族勤劳智慧的创造能力,多姿多彩、自成体系的文化传统魅力和博大精深.光照千秋的悠久历史文明风采.     

城市居民社区组织意识研究综述

社区组织意识是社区成员与社区组织在共同生活中形成的的精神联结,体现为对社区组织的认知、情感和行为意愿。文章对社区组织意识概念、状况和影响因素进行了论述,并提出社区组织意识研究存在的不足,及对未来研究的展望。     

中国科学界对自然界中神秘现象的看法

本文所说的自然界中的神秘现象是指:那些不能或据说不能用已有的科学理论解释或很好解释的、令人困惑的自然界现象或者所声称的自然现象,它不包括人类自身和人类社会的神秘现象,因为本文所说的自然界是指狭义的自然界。所谓自然界的神秘现象是一个具有相对性的概念,某一时代     

Baby face wins? Examining election success based on candidate election bulletin via multilevel modeling

A growing body of research suggests that many voters rely on facial cues from political candidates to elect their leaders. Our study proposes that having a baby face could be an asset for a political candidate in a collectivist culture. Using election bulletin photographs from Taiwan's 2004, 2008 and 2012 legislative election, we look at the extent to which a candidate's baby face is related to election outcomes. Our multilevel modelling includes the number of candidates as Level 1 units, and the number of counties in which the candidates competed as Level 2 units. Vote share is the outcome variable. After considering the candidates' traits (perceived babyfacedness, competence, attractiveness and warmth) and background characteristics, babyfacedness was the strongest predictor of vote share. Results across three elections show consistent patterns: the more babyfaced the candidate, the greater the percentage of votes a candidate received, regardless of the candidate's gender, political affiliation or incumbency status. Babyfacedness is more influential than perceived competence, attractiveness and warmth.     

高效率数学学习高中生数学成绩的影响路径

为探究高效率数学学习高中生的数学学习成绩的影响因素的不同作用效果,以及这些影响因素间存在的作用路径,通过目标抽样,选取102名高中生为被试开展调查研究。通过数据分析,并依托AMOS软件的模型界定搜寻功能进行路径分析,获得研究结论：（1）数学元认知、数学非智力因素、智力因素、数学学习策略和数学素养这5个变量对高效率数学学习高中生的数学学习成绩的作用效果值依次递减。（2）5个变量通过两条主要路径影响高效率数学学习高中生的数学学习成绩,一是智力因素与数学素养构成的影响路径,二是数学元认知、数学非智力因素以及数学学习策略构成的影响路径。     

Young Children Selectively Hide the Truth About Sensitive Topics

Starting in early childhood, children are socialized to be honest. However, they are also expected to avoid telling the truth in sensitive situations if doing so could be seen as inappropriate or impolite. Across two studies (total N = 358), the reasoning of 3- to 5-year-old children in such a scenario was investigated by manipulating whether the information in question would be helpful to the recipient. The studies used a reverse rouge paradigm, in which a confederate with a highly salient red mark on her nose asked children whether she looked okay prior to having her picture taken. In Study 1, children tended to tell the truth only if they were able to observe that the mark was temporary and the confederate did not know it was there. In Study 2, children tended to tell the truth only if they were able to observe that the mark could be concealed with makeup. These findings show that for children as young as age 3, decisions about whether to tell the truth are influenced by the likelihood that the information would be helpful to the recipient.     

The mnemonic advantage of processing fitness-relevant information

Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) proposed that our memory systems serve an adaptive function and that they have evolved to help us remember fitness-relevant information. In a series of experiments, they demonstrated that processing words according to their survival relevance resulted in better retention than did rating them for pleasantness, personal relevance, or relevance to moving to a new house. The aim of the present study was to examine whether the advantage of survival processing could be replicated, using a control condition that was designed to match the survival processing task in arousal, novelty, and media exposure--the relevance to planning a bank heist. We found that survival processing nonetheless yielded better retention on both a recall (Experiment 1) and a recognition (Experiment 2) test. This mnemonic advantage of survival processing was also obtained when words were rated for their relevance to a character depicted in a video clip (Experiment 3). Our findings provide additional evidence that the mnemonic benefit of survival processing is a robust phenomenon, and they also support the utility of adopting a functional perspective in investigating memory.     

The effect of visual search efficiency on response preparation: neurophysiological evidence for discrete flow

Most models assume that response time (RT) comprises the time required for successive processing stages, but they disagree about whether information is transmitted continuously or discretely between stages. We tested these alternative hypotheses by measuring when movement-related activity began in the frontal eye field (FEF) of macaque monkeys performing visual search. Previous work showed that RT was longer when visual neurons in FEF took longer to select the target, a finding consistent with prolonged perceptual processing during less efficient search. We now report that the buildup of saccadic movement-related activity in FEF is delayed in inefficient visual search. Variability in the delay of movement-related activity accounted for the difference in RT between search conditions and for the variability of RT within conditions. These findings provide neurophysiological support for the hypothesis that information is transmitted discretely between perceptual and response stages of processing during visual search.