Forecasting the impact of the federal sentencing guidelines

The Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, which created the U.S. Sentencing Commission, required that the commisson consider prison capacity in drafting sentencing guidelines. As part of the commission's efforts to meet this requirement, we developed a computer simulation capable of projecting the impact of the commission's guidelines on future sentences and prison populations. According to our projections, “straight” probation sentences will be reduced significantly under the guidelines. However, reducing the use of probation will generate only modest demands on the prisons, and then mostly for community corrections phased in over the course of 5 years. We also project that, while average time served for violent offenses will increase substantially, average time served for most property crimes will remain largely the same. Finally, while we forecast that federal prison populations will grow markedly by the end of this century, this is more a result of the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986 and the career offender provision of the Comprehensive Crime Control Act of 1984 than a result of the guidelines.     

TIMEX2: A modified C-language timer for PC AT class machines

Emerson (1988) provided a simple C-language timing routine for use with PC AT class machines. Unfortunately, this version of the timing routine makes use of nonstandard functions that are not available in all C-language packages. A modified version of this timing routine that does not make use of one of these nonstandard functions is provided. This version of TIMEX runs under the widely available Microsoft C 5.1. The need and availability of the remaining four nonstandard C functions is discussed. Constants needed to convert the timing routine units into seconds and milliseconds are also provided.     

Statistical analysis of fuzzy-set data from neuronal networks

In this study, we describe the process of transforming neuron polarization values that meet the assumptions of ratio data into ordinal data. This is a crisp-to-fuzzy set transformation. A computerized simulation of the application of this process is discussed and nonparametric methods of analyzing fuzzy-set data are presented.     

Programs for visual psychophysics on the Amiga: A tutorial

A typical psychophysical experiment presents a sequence of visual stimuli to an observer and collects and stores the responses for later analysis. Although computers can speed up this process, paint programs that allow one to prepare visual stimuli without programming cannot read responses from the mouse or keyboard, whereas BASIC and other programming languages that allow one to collect and store observer’s responses unfortunately cannot handle prepainted pictures. A new programming language called The Director provides the best of both worlds. Its BASIC-like commands can manipulate prepainted pictures, read responses made with the mouse and keyboard, and save these on disk for later analysis. A dozen sample programs are provided.     

Students' preferences for male or female counselors for social and educational problems

Fifty-eight male and 66 female junior high school students were examined to determine their preferences for sex of counselor under personal/social and educational hypothetical counseling situations. Girls demonstrated a definite same-sex preference for both counseling situations, while boys preferred male counselors for personal/social counseling and had opposite-sex preferences for educational counseling. Implications of the findings are discussed in light of earlier contradictory results from research on college students.     

Acquired affective-evaluative value: conservative but not unchangeable

In a previous study on Evaluative Conditioning it was found that unlike signal-learning, evaluative learning is resistant to extinction. In the present experiment we tried to replicate and corroborate this finding. In addition, we investigated the effectiveness of a counterconditioning procedure to alter acquired evaluative value. On a within-subject base (n = 30), it was found that the mere contingent presentation of neutral with (dis)liked pictures of human faces was sufficient to change the affective-evaluative tone of the originally neutral stimuli in (negative) positive direction. Next, we replicated the finding that an extinction procedure does not have any influence on the acquired evaluative value of the originally neutral stimuli, and this even in subjects fully aware of the extinction presentations. We demonstrated the effectiveness of a counterconditioning procedure to alter acquired evaluative value, and in addition, found some evidence that awareness of the counterconditioning manipulations is not a prerequisite for its effectiveness. The theoretical consequences of these findings are phrased in terms of a fundamental distinction between signal-learning and evaluative learning, and some important implications for the behavioral treatment of affective-emotional disorders are suggested.     

Factor structure in groups selected on observed scores

A new method is proposed for estimating factor means and factor covariances in a group of individuals selected on their observed scores. The selection variable is, for example, the total score on an admissions test. Given a factor model for the test items based on the group of test takers, we may be interested in the factor structure for those in the top quartile. The differences in factor means and covariances between this selected group and the full group gives useful information both on successful test performance and on test validity. The new method draws on the classic Pearson-Lawley selection formulas. It avoids the fallacy of factor analysis on the selected group, which would lead to incorrect estimates. The new method is applied to a simple factor structure model for the GMAT test. Although the majority of the GMAT items test verbal skills, it is found that a quantitative factor shows the greatest change in moving from average to top quartile test takers.     

Explanatory style across the life span: evidence for stability over 52 years

Analyzed explanatory style across the life span. 30 Ss whose average age was 72 responded to questions about their current life and provided diaries or letters written in their youth, an average of 52 years earlier. A blind content analysis of explanatory style derived from these 2 sources revealed that explanatory style for negative events was stable throughout adult life (r = .54, p less than .002). In contrast, there appeared to be no stability of explanatory style for positive events between the same 2 time periods. These results suggest that explanatory style for negative events may persist across the life span and may constitute an enduring risk factor for depression, low achievement, and physical illness.