Are We All Overconfident in the Long Run? Evidence from One Million Marathon Participants

In this project, we measured overconfidence in a large, heterogeneous sample making familiar, repeated choices in a natural environment that provided direct feedback. Specifically, in study 1, we elicited predictions of own finishing time among participants of the 2012 Warsaw Marathon. The participants' prediction errors were highly correlated with the change in pace over the course of the run: overly optimistic forecasters slowed down more in the second half. In study 2, we consequently took this slowdown as a proxy for overconfidence and used existing field data of one million participants in several large marathons for which split times are available (but own predictions are not). Both studies indicate that men as well as the youngest and oldest participants tend to be more confident. In study 2, we were able to investigate national and cultural dimensions. We found confirmation of previously reported findings of relative overconfidence in Asians. Additionally, we show some largely novel results, in particular that relatively conservative societies tend to be relatively overconfident. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnitude effect contributes to the domain specificity in delay discounting

Discounting is a useful framework for understanding temporal choices. A person who prefers $50 immediately over $100 in 1 month exhibits a higher discount rate than a person deciding to wait for the higher payoff. Although previous research shows that discount rates are domain-specific, we propose an alternative to the domain specificity account. We suggest that differences in discounting alternatives across various domains may result not so much from the domains' nature per se but from differences in perceived attractiveness of the discounted alternatives. We replicated that an illustrative study evidencing domain specificity in discounting (Experiment 1) showed that people's subjective values of the payoffs in domains discounted in this experiment were different (Experiment 2) and used a novel method to match the attractiveness of the available alternatives across domains (Experiment 3). Finally, Experiment 4 showed that when matching was applied, the domain effect disappeared. We conclude that a magnitude effect can, at least partially, explain domain specificity in delay discounting.     

When sounds look right and images sound correct: Cross-modal coherence enhances claims of pattern presence

How do people decide whether a stimulus contains a pattern? One possibility is that they rely on a global, non-specific signal of coherence. Interestingly, this signal might reflect a combination of different stimulus sources. Consequently, the coherence of one stimulus might influence decisions about coherence of a second, unrelated stimulus. We explored this possibility in three experiments in which participants judged the presence of a pattern in targets from one sensory modality, while being exposed in the background to incidental coherent and incoherent stimuli in a different modality (visual → auditory, auditory → visual). Across all three experiments, using a variety of judgments, coherence of incidental background cross-modal patterns enhanced claims of pattern presence. These findings advance our understanding of how people judge order in the structured as well as in the unstructured world.     

Characteristics of Athletes’ Approach to the Question of Physical Health and Health Behaviors: Do Athletes Lead Healthy Lifestyles?

Athletes are people for whom physical health is a key value. Health promoting behaviors are an integral part of athletes’ success. The aim of this article is to identify health criteria and health-related behaviors among athletes and their determinants in terms of temperament and personality features. The concept of healthy lifestyle as understood by athletes and their most important health criteria were defined. Neuroticism and extraversion correlated with and were significant predictors of health behaviors; there were no significant relationships between health-promoting behaviors and temperament. Four groups of athletes, each characterized by a different approach to health, were identified. These groups were described with respect to various personality and temperamental determinants. Knowledge about the above-mentioned aspects of athletes’ performance can assist sport psychologists in providing athletes with more personalized support.     

Directed Forgetting and Aging: The Role of Retrieval Processes,Processing Speed,and Proactive Interference

ABSTRACT

The directed forgetting effect obtained with the item method is supposed to depend on both selective rehearsal of to-be-remembered (TBR) items and attentional inhibition of to-be-forgotten (TBF) items. In this study, we investigated the locus of the directed forgetting deficit in older adults by exploring the influence of recollection and familiarity-based retrieval processes on age-related differences in directed forgetting. Moreover, we explored the influence of processing speed, short-term memory capacity, thought suppression tendencies, and sensitivity to proactive interference on performance. The results indicated that older adults' directed forgetting difficulties are due to decreased recollection of TBR items, associated with increased automatic retrieval of TBF items. Moreover, processing speed and proactive interference appeared to be responsible for the decreased recall of TBR items.     

Primary Progressive Aphasias and Their Contribution to the Contemporary Knowledge About the Brain-Language Relationship

Primary progressive aphasia (PPA), typically resulting from a neurodegenerative disease such as frontotemporal dementia/Pick Complex or Alzheimer’s disease, is a heterogeneous clinical condition characterized by a progressive loss of specific language functions with initial sparing of other cognitive domains. Based on the constellation of symptoms, PPA has been classified into a nonfluent, semantic, or logopenic variant. This review of the literature aims to characterize the speech and language impairment, cognition, neuroimaging, pathology, genetics, and epidemiology associated with each of these variants. Some therapeutic recommendations, theoretical implications, and directions for future research have been also provided.     

Choke or thrive? The relation between salivary cortisol and math performance depends on individual differences in working memory and math-anxiety

In the current study, we explored how a person's physiological arousal relates to their performance in a challenging math situation as a function of individual differences in working memory (WM) capacity and math-anxiety. Participants completed demanding math problems before and after which salivary cortisol, an index of arousal, was measured. The performance of lower WM individuals did not depend on cortisol concentration or math-anxiety. For higher WM individuals high in math-anxiety, the higher their concentration of salivary cortisol following the math task, the worse their performance. In contrast, for higher WM individuals lower in math-anxiety, the higher their salivary cortisol concentrations, the better their performance. For individuals who have the capacity to perform at a high-level (higher WMs), whether physiological arousal will lead an individual to choke or thrive depends on math-anxiety.     

Manipulating attentional load in sequence learning through random number generation

Implicit learning is often assumed to be an effortless process. However, some artificial grammar learning and sequence learning studies using dual tasks seem to suggest that attention is essential for implicit learning to occur. This discrepancy probably results from the specific type of secondary task that is used. Different secondary tasks may engage attentional resources differently and therefore may bias performance on the primary task in different ways. Here, we used a random number generation (RNG) task, which may allow for a closer monitoring of a participant's engagement in a secondary task than the popular secondary task in sequence learning studies: tone counting (TC). In the first two experiments, we investigated the interference associated with performing RNG concurrently with a serial reaction time (SRT) task. In a third experiment, we compared the effects of RNG and TC. In all three experiments, we directly evaluated participants' knowledge of the sequence with a subsequent sequence generation task. Sequence learning was consistently observed in all experiments, but was impaired under dual-task conditions. Most importantly, our data suggest that RNG is more demanding and impairs learning to a greater extent than TC. Nevertheless, we failed to observe effects of the secondary task in subsequent sequence generation. Our studies indicate that RNG is a promising task to explore the involvement of attention in the SRT task.