Incremental validity of the Rorschach Prognostic Rating Scale over the MMPI Ego Strength Scale and IQ

A recent meta-analysis found that the Rorschach Prognostic Rating Scale (RPRS) had a strong ability to predict subsequent outcome (r = .44, N = 783; Meyer & Handler, 1997, this issue). However, that review did not directly address questions of incremental validity. This article focuses on the ability of the RPRS to predict outcome after taking into account other sources of data. Across studies that examined both the RPRS and the MMPI Ego Strength scale, the RPRS had a strong ability to predict outcome (r = .40, N = 187), whereas the MMPI scale did not (r = .02, N = 280). Nine studies examined the RPRS along with an intelligence test and allowed direct numerical estimates of incremental validity to be calculated. Across studies, the RPRS demonstrated strong incremental validity after controlling for intelligence (incremental r = .36, N = 358). It is clear that the Rorschach can make unique contributions to understanding clinically relevant processes in ways that self-reports or measured intelligence cannot. Contemporary Rorschach scales should continue to be evaluated for their distinctive and incremental contribution to clinical practice.     

When effect sizes disagree: the case of r and d

The increased use of effect sizes in single studies and meta-analyses raises new questions about statistical inference. Choice of an effect-size index can have a substantial impact on the interpretation of findings. The authors demonstrate the issue by focusing on two popular effect-size measures, the correlation coefficient and the standardized mean difference (e.g., Cohen's d or Hedges's g), both of which can be used when one variable is dichotomous and the other is quantitative. Although the indices are often practically interchangeable, differences in sensitivity to the base rate or variance of the dichotomous variable can alter conclusions about the magnitude of an effect depending on which statistic is used. Because neither statistic is universally superior, researchers should explicitly consider the importance of base rates to formulate correct inferences and justify the selection of a primary effect-size statistic.     

Employee Cynicism and Resistance to Organizational Change

We offer a reconceptualization of employee cynicism and present the results of two studies to test the hypotheses that (a) cynicism about an organizational change is distinguishable from skepticism about the change, more general forms of cynicism (disposition and management), and trust in management, (b) change-specific cynicism and skepticism relate differently to personal and situational antecedent variables, and (c) change-specific cynicism accounts for variance in employees intention to resist change not explained by skepticism, trust, and more general forms of cynicism. Study 1 was conducted with employees (N=65) from several organizations undergoing various changes, and Study 2 with employees (N=701) from a single organization undergoing restructuring and culture change. Results were generally consistent with prediction. Implications for future research and for the management of change are discussed.     

Assessing the dysregulation of the Behavioral Activation System: the Hypomanic Personality Scale and the BIS-BAS scales

We discuss the Hypomanic Personality Scale (Hyp; Eckblad & Chapman, 1986) and the Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS-BAS; Carver & White, 1994) and Behavioral Activation System (BAS; Gray, 1991) Scales as risk factors for bipolar disorders. The dysregulation of the BAS is considered to be central and results in higher variability in mood. Therefore, we examined how those scales are associated with mood fluctuations. A total of 59 participants completed a diary for at least 17 days. It included a modified Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression Scale (Meyer & Hautzinger, 2001) assessing depression and mania and the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (Watson, Clark, & Tellegen, 1988). Hyp and BAS predicted levels of mania and of positive affect but also fluctuations of mania. Hyp also predicted instability of negative affect. Our data also suggest that mood variability is a trait-like feature. Both scales seem not to be perfect measures of the dysregulation factor. Future research should assess this dysregulation more directly.     

Brain activity varies with modulation of dynamic pitch variance in sentence melody

Fourteen native speakers of German heard normal sentences, sentences which were either lacking dynamic pitch variation (flattened speech), or comprised of intonation contour exclusively (degraded speech). Participants were to listen carefully to the sentences and to perform a rehearsal task. Passive listening to flattened speech compared to normal speech produced strong brain responses in right cortical areas, particularly in the posterior superior temporal gyrus (pSTG). Passive listening to degraded speech compared to either normal or flattened speech particularly involved fronto-opercular and subcortical (Putamen, Caudate Nucleus) regions bilaterally. Additionally the Rolandic operculum (premotor cortex) in the right hemisphere subserved processing of neat sentence intonation. As a function of explicit rehearsing sentence intonation we found several activation foci in the left inferior frontal gyrus (Broca's area), the left inferior precentral sulcus, and the left Rolandic fissure. The data allow several suggestions: First, both flattened and degraded speech evoked differential brain responses in the pSTG, particularly in the planum temporale (PT) bilaterally indicating that this region mediates integration of slowly and rapidly changing acoustic cues during comprehension of spoken language. Second, the bilateral circuit active whilst participants receive degraded speech reflects general effort allocation. Third, the differential finding for passive perception and explicit rehearsal of intonation contour suggests a right fronto-lateral network for processing and a left fronto-lateral network for producing prosodic information. Finally, it appears that brain areas which subserve speech (frontal operculum) and premotor functions (Rolandic operculum) coincidently support the processing of intonation contour in spoken sentence comprehension.     

Decision making under internal uncertainty: the case of multiple-choice tests with different scoring rules

This paper assesses framing effects on decision making with internal uncertainty, i.e., partial knowledge, by focusing on examinees' behavior in multiple-choice (MC) tests with different scoring rules. In two experiments participants answered a general-knowledge MC test that consisted of 34 solvable and 6 unsolvable items. Experiment 1 studied two scoring rules involving Positive (only gains) and Negative (only losses) scores. Although answering all items was the dominating strategy for both rules, the results revealed a greater tendency to answer under the Negative scoring rule. These results are in line with the predictions derived from Prospect Theory (PT) [Econometrica 47 (1979) 263]. The second experiment studied two scoring rules, which allowed respondents to exhibit partial knowledge. Under the Inclusion-scoring rule the respondents mark all answers that could be correct, and under the Exclusion-scoring rule they exclude all answers that might be incorrect. As predicted by PT, respondents took more risks under the Inclusion rule than under the Exclusion rule. The results illustrate that the basic process that underlies choice behavior under internal uncertainty and especially the effect of framing is similar to the process of choice under external uncertainty and can be described quite accurately by PT.     

Consensus effects in categorization decisions

A previous study (Gilat et al., J. Exp. Psychol. Appl. 3 (1997) 83) has shown that the incentive to reach consensus can raise the tendency to rely on base rates in signal detection decisions and can reduce the probability that less likely events will be accurately classified. This phenomenon was named the “consensus effect”. The current study assesses the conditions under which this effect develops and in particular the effects of information about the game and of the incentive structure on the learning process. The results of three experiments show that the learning process slows when participants have information about the actual state of nature. This finding is captured by a reinforcement learning model with the assumption that information narrows the distribution of the initial propensities for choosing among cutoffs. The results are further evidence for the utility of the combination of learning models and analyses of cognitive processes for the prediction of decision making in situations involving multiple players.     

Three Assistants on Boltzmann

The three demi-articles presented here would give a brief biographical account of Ludwig Boltzmann’s life plus some details about his Vienna laboratories first in the 1860’s in the Erdberg and second in Türkenstrasse from 1894. Josef Nabl’s account discusses J. J. Thomson’s Laboratory in Cambridge, which allows a provisional comparison between two different largely contemporary institutes. Nabl’s second letter also mentions Lord Kelvin’s late rejection of the kinetic gas theory of Maxwell and Boltzmann, rejection which on top of the negative attitude of Mach, Zermelo, and Poincaré probably did not benefit Boltzmann’s state of mind and may have contributed to the extreme character of Boltzmann’s anti-philosophical counterattack starting in 1903. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.