An application of the poisson race model to confidence calibration

In tasks as diverse as stock market predictions and jury deliberations, a person's feelings of confidence in the appropriateness of different choices often impact that person's final choice. The current study examines the mathematical modeling of confidence calibration in a simple dual-choice task. Experiments are motivated by an accumulator model, which proposes that information supporting each alternative accrues on separate counters. The observer responds in favor of whichever alternative's counter first hits a designated threshold. Confidence can then be scaled from the difference between the counters at the time that the observer makes a response. The authors examine the overconfidence result in general and present new findings dealing with the effect of response bias on confidence calibration.     

Understanding How Participation in a Consumer-Run Organization Relates to Recovery

The goal of this study was to examine how different types of participation in a consumer-run organization (CRO) are related to recovery. More specifically, this study uses structural equation modeling to examine the relative impact of empowering and socially supportive participation experiences on progress towards recovery among 250 CRO members from 20 CROs. An empowering participation experience refers to involvement in leadership roles and contribution to organizational functioning. A socially supportive participation experience refers to social involvement in mutually supportive friendships with intimacy and sharing. Results indicate that both types of participation are associated with recovery, although a socially supportive participation experience maintains a stronger relationship with recovery than an empowering participation experience. Findings are consistent with the idea that CROs should encourage both types of participation. Drawing from over ten years of experience supporting CROs, the discussion section explores several strategies CROs can use to foster empowering and socially supportive participation experiences.     

Variables influencing the neural correlates of perceived risk of physical harm

Many human activities involve a risk of physical harm. However, not much is known about the specific brain regions involved in decision making regarding these risks. To explore the neural correlates of risk perception for physical harms, 19 participants took part in an event-related fMRI study while rating risky activities. The scenarios varied in level of potential harm (e.g., paralysis vs. stubbed toe), likelihood of injury (e.g., 1 chance in 100 vs. 1 chance in 1,000), and format (frequency vs. probability). Networks of brain regions were responsive to different aspects of risk information. Cortical language- processing areas, the middle temporal gyrus, and a region around the bed nucleus of stria terminalis responded more strongly to high- harm conditions. Prefrontal areas, along with subcortical ventral striatum, responded preferentially to high- likelihood conditions. Participants rated identical risks to be greater when information was presented in frequency format rather than probability format. These findings indicate that risk assessments for physical harm engage a broad network of brain regions that are sensitive to the severity of harm, the likelihood of risk, and the framing of risk information.     

Binary recursive partitioning: Background,methods, and application to psychology

Binary recursive partitioning (BRP) is a computationally intensive statistical method that can be used in situations where linear models are often used. Instead of imposing many assumptions to arrive at a tractable statistical model, BRP simply seeks to accurately predict a response variable based on values of predictor variables. The method outputs a decision tree depicting the predictor variables that were related to the response variable, along with the nature of the variables' relationships. No significance tests are involved, and the tree's ‘goodness’ is judged based on its predictive accuracy. In this paper, we describe BRP methods in a detailed manner and illustrate their use in psychological research. We also provide R code for carrying out the methods.     

The problem of model selection uncertainty in structural equation modeling

Model selection in structural equation modeling (SEM) involves using selection criteria to declare one model superior and treating it as a best working hypothesis until a better model is proposed. A limitation of this approach is that sampling variability in selection criteria usually is not considered, leading to assertions of model superiority that may not withstand replication. We illustrate that selection decisions using information criteria can be highly unstable over repeated sampling and that this uncertainty does not necessarily decrease with increases in sample size. Methods for addressing model selection uncertainty in SEM are evaluated, and implications for practice are discussed.     

Direction of dependence in measurement error models

Methods to determine the direction of a regression line, that is, to determine the direction of dependence in reversible linear regression models (e.g., x→y vs. y→x), have experienced rapid development within the last decade. However, previous research largely rested on the assumption that the true predictor is measured without measurement error. The present paper extends the direction dependence principle to measurement error models. First, we discuss asymmetric representations of the reliability coefficient in terms of higher moments of variables and the attenuation of skewness and excess kurtosis due to measurement error. Second, we identify conditions where direction dependence decisions are biased due to measurement error and suggest method of moments (MOM) estimation as a remedy. Third, we address data situations in which the true outcome exhibits both regression and measurement error, and propose a sensitivity analysis approach to determining the robustness of direction dependence decisions against unreliably measured outcomes. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess the performance of MOM-based direction dependence measures and their robustness to violated measurement error assumptions (i.e., non-independence and non-normality). An empirical example from subjective well-being research is presented. The plausibility of model assumptions and links to modern causal inference methods for observational data are discussed.     

Bayesian latent variable models for the analysis of experimental psychology data

In this paper, we address the use of Bayesian factor analysis and structural equation models to draw inferences from experimental psychology data. While such application is non-standard, the models are generally useful for the unified analysis of multivariate data that stem from, e.g., subjects’ responses to multiple experimental stimuli. We first review the models and the parameter identification issues inherent in the models. We then provide details on model estimation via JAGS and on Bayes factor estimation. Finally, we use the models to re-analyze experimental data on risky choice, comparing the approach to simpler, alternative methods.     

Gegenübertragung im stationären Therapie-Setting

Background

Countertransference is seen as an instrument of research into a patient’s unconscious and is therapeutically useful in furthering psychodynamic work. For inpatient psychodynamic psychotherapy, where patients are treated by a team of psychotherapists, countertransference is much more complex and makes consideration and integration of different countertransference feelings necessary. Using the first German translation of the countertransference questionnaire (CTQ, Zittel Conclin and Westen, the countertransference questionnaire, 2005) an attempt was made to identify differences in countertransference phenomena in a team of psychotherapists and to show the impact countertransference has on therapy outcome.

Materials and methods

A total of t multiprofessional teams of psychotherapists (15 physicians, 5 psychologists and 9 body and art therapy psychotherapists) took part in the study and completed the CTQ for 137 patients (100 female, 37 male) at the beginning and at the end of inpatient psychotherapy. In addition, the patients completed two questionnaires, the Symptom Check List Revised 90-R (SCL-90) for the severity of symptoms and the Assessment of DSM-IV Personality Disorders Questionnaire (ADP-IV) for personality disorders.

Results

Body and art therapy psychotherapists expressed more positive, protective and involved countertransference feelings whereas psychotherapists for single and group therapy expressed more aggressive and hopeless feelings. Countertransference has an impact on therapy outcome and feelings of a lack of interest, aggression and resignation at the beginning of therapy can point to a poor outcome. Patients with personality disorders activate more negative countertransference reactions than patients without personality disorders but at the same time they may also evoke parent-like feelings of protection.

Conclusions

Using the CTQ it is possible to differentiate countertransference phenomena in a team of psychotherapists treating inpatients with psychodynamic psychotherapy. The timely perception and integration of countertransference feelings has a positive influence on the therapeutic process and therapy outcome.     

Option fixation: A cognitive contributor to overconfidence

The ASC model of choice and confidence in general knowledge proposes that respondents first Assess the familiarity of presented options, and then use the high-familiarity option as a retrieval cue to Search memory for the purposes of Constructing an explanation about why that high-familiarity option is true. The ASC process implies that overconfidence results in part from a tendency to fixate on the high-familiarity option, to the neglect of the other option. If this implication is true, then judgment tasks requiring respondents to evaluate each option independently should result in reduced overconfidence as compared with standard judgment tasks. Two experiments tested this implication, and found that confidence and overconfidence were reduced when respondents evaluated options independently. The findings support the proposal that option fixation contributes to overconfidence, and also clarify the limitations of random error explanations of overconfidence.