The effects of wording on the understanding and use of uncertainty information in a threshold forecasting decision

Many believe that information about small chances of severe weather would be useful to the general public for precautionary action. What is the best way to explain this kind of information to a non‐expert audience? The studies reported here investigated effects of framing (negative vs. positive), format (frequency vs. probability), likelihood (low vs. high) and compatibility (task‐match) on interpretation of verbal expressions of forecast uncertainty and on subsequent forecasting decisions. The crucial factor was the match between the verbal expression and the overall task goal. Errors increased when there was a mismatch between the expression (e.g. winds less than 20 knots) and the task (e.g. post an advisory when winds will exceed 20 knots). However, framing and format had little impact. We conclude that consideration of user expectations arising from the overall task goal is crucial in explaining uncertainty information to a naïve audience. Global expectations overpower other potential effects. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

非小细胞肺癌靶向药物治疗争论热点

非小细胞肺癌作为全球和我国发病率最高、死亡人数最多的恶性肿瘤,其药物治疗始终是临床肿瘤学界高度关注的焦点之一.肿瘤的药物治疗模式从单纯以细胞毒药物杀伤肿瘤逐步向调节信号传导通路转变,分子靶向药物日益成为治疗肿瘤的重要武器.回顾肺癌靶向治疗的进展,诸多问题需要解决.     

“100% of anything looks good”: The appeal of one hundred percent

People overweight certainty, even when certainty is only an illusion. A vaccine that was described as 100% effective against 70% of disease targets was preferred to one described as 70% effective against 100% of disease targets (Studies 1 and 2). The appeal of 100% extends beyond the probability attribute. In Study 2, participants preferred both of the vaccines above to normatively equivalent vaccines that were less than 100% effective toward fewer than 100% of targets. In Study 3, participants preferred a 100% discount on a cup of coffee every 10 days to other more frequent, but lower amount, discounts. This preference evaporated, however, when savings were framed as points rather than as percentage discounts. We propose that people view 100% as a salient reference point and overweight it in those domains where it cannot be exceeded (e.g., probability, discount); the overweighting is weaker in domains where 100% can be exceeded (e.g., target range, points).     

反语认知的神经-心理机制研究及其进展

反语是指使用与本意相反的语句表达本意的修辞形式.从脑损伤者和神经发展异常者(包括精神分裂症和孤独症患者)角度,介绍了反语认知神经心理机制的研究,评述了现有研究并指出未来研究的方向.     

电视节目质量研究述评

电视节目质量研究始于20世纪40年代,不同的国家设计了不同的指标来评价节目的质量,如欣赏指数、电视指数、享受指数、值得收看指数、兴趣指数、观众满意度等。文章概述了电视节目质量研究的历史、主要成果及研究动态,并系统介绍了最具影响力的欣赏指数调查,以及欣赏指数与电视收视率、节目类型、观众人口特征等因素之间的关系,最后对目前电视节目质量研究中的局限和不足做出分析和总结     

理解模糊概念的动态特征

本文探讨了不同场合下人脑理解模糊概念(量词、修饰词)的动态特点,并且考察了不同赋值区间(论域)、比较级的基数、上下关联(Context)等变量对理解给定的模糊概念的影响,特别考察了上述问题上的年龄差异。     

Assessing School Academic Productivity: The Case of Chicago School Reform

This paper considers the issues raised in using standardized achievement test scores for purposes of examining the academic productivity of schools. We critique some commonly used practices by urban school districts and suggest an alternative approach – the school productivity profile. This profile is based on an assessment of each school's contribution to student learning, or value-added, rather than just the overall level of student attainment. We illustrate, using 10-year achievement trend data from the Chicago Public Schools (CPS), both the problems with some commonly reported indicators of school effectiveness and the idea of a school productivity profile. While our analyses suggest broad-based improvements in student learning in many Chicago schools over the past 10 years, we also found that the current testing system is not well designed to make such judgments accurately. We conclude that extant standardized testing systems, like the ITBS used in Chicago, do not afford an accurate basis for assessing school productivity and how this might be changing over time. These results have important policy implications. As school districts seek to become more outcome oriented, they will need to invest in better testing and reporting systems in order to know whether they are making genuine progress in this regard.     

关于先发情绪体验对后发情绪过程的影响的一项实验

本实验试图探讨是否存在着一种先发体验,它的影响能在随后发生的情绪过程中表现出来。实验得到了肯定的结果。它显示为:(1)先发情绪体验若与后发情绪的性质相接近,则对后者起促进作用;若相反,则起抑制作用,(2)激起后发情绪的反应时(RT)与所发生情绪的持续时(DE)二者之间有显著的正相关。     

情绪的组织功能——关于情绪对认知操作的影响的几个实验总结

本文就(1)情绪的一般唤醒和具体情绪分化、(2)不同享乐色调情绪状态对认知操作的作用、(3)怒情绪的作用、(4)作为情绪的兴趣的作用、(5)情绪以体验形式起作用等五个问题,在总结情绪与认知操作的系列实验基础上,讨论了情绪的组织性功能;认为不同享乐色调的情绪对认知操作起着性质不同的组织作用或瓦解作用。     

求真与致善——荀子正名理论新探

荀子的正名理论不仅接续孔子的正名传统,也有对诸子之学的扬弃,在正名理论中荀子借鉴了名家、墨家的理论,丽他们也是萄子批评最多的。荀子的正名理论主要体现在《正名》篇中。其中他讨论了名的分类、名的作用、制名的原则等,并对“三惑”等不正之名进行了批判。他认为名的主要作用在于“明贵贱”与“辨同异”,“贵贱”关乎价值,“同异”关乎事实,萄子就通过名联接了事实与价值。“辨同异”在乎求“真”,“明贵贱”在乎求“善”,而荀子又认为“明贵贱”高于“辨同异”,从而把名学引向伦理、政治之域。