Investigating the roots of the favourite–longshot bias: an analysis of decision making by supply‐ and demand‐side agents in parallel betting markets

This paper offers new insights into the behavioural origins of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias — an established feature of betting markets, whereby longshots win less often than the subjective probabilities imply and favourites more often. A number of alternative explanations has been offered for this phenomenon but the main debate focuses on whether it is caused by the behaviour of those supplying betting markets (bookmakers) or of the demand‐side agents in these markets (bettors) . This study analyses a new data source which offers detailed information for a large sample of recent UK horseraces on decision‐making behaviour within the parimutuel and the parallel bookmaker‐based betting markets. The results offer strong evidence for the existence of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias in bookmaker‐based markets, with a corresponding absence of such an effect in the parimutuel case. These results offer support for the view that the origins of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias lie principally in the decisions of bookmakers rather than in the decisions of bettors. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Patterns of Preference for Numerical and Verbal Probabilities

We report results of an experiment designed to test a principle formulated by Budescu and Wallsten (1995), that, when communicating uncertainty information, mode choices are sensitive to sources and degrees of vagueness. In addition, we examined subjects’ efficacy in using such uncertainty information as a function of communication mode, source, and vagueness. In phase one of the experiment, subjects in a dyad used precise (numerical) or imprecise (verbal) expressions to communicate to a remote partner precise or vague uncertainty about the likelihoods of events. Spinner outcomes were used to generate precise uncertainty while answers to almanac questions were used to elicit vague uncertainty. In phase two, subjects saw the events paired with their partners’ estimates of similar events, and were asked to gamble on one event from each pair. Communication mode preferences were measured as the relative frequency that subjects chose the numerical mode to either express or receive uncertainty information regarding the events. Efficacy was measured as the relative frequency that subjects choose from the pair the event associated with the objectively more probable uncertainty expression. Underlying uncertainty interacted with direction of communication to affect preferences for modes of expression of the probabilities. Subjects preferred precise (numerical) information, especially for precise events (spinners). For vague events (questions), their preference for precise (numerical) information was stronger when receiving than when communicating information. Similar preferences were reflected in the efficiency of subsequent gamble decisions based on the probability estimates. Specifically, decisions were more efficacious (i.e. consistent with Expected Utility) when degrees of precision in events and estimates matched. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transition to market economy promotes individualistic values: Analysing changes in frequencies of Russian words from 1980 to 2008

Google Books Ngram was used to assess changes in frequency of usage in words corresponding to collectivistic and individualistic values in Russia during the time of economic changes. It was found that in many domains transition to market economy was associated with a rise in the use of words corresponding to individualistic values and a decrease in the use of words associated with collectivistic values. In several cases, words corresponding to collectivistic terms were used more often than words corresponding to individualistic values. The results suggest that economic changes lead to a change in values structure, but that individualistic and collectivistic values can co‐exist because of the transitional sate of the Russian society.     

Paradoxes of “creativity”: Examining the creative process through an antenarrative lens

Accounts of the creative process tend to be retrospective and implicitly ground the creative act within the person, the mind, the moment, the idea; in doing so, they often miss the larger sociomaterial qualities that can provide us with important insights about the social relationality and playfulness of the creative process. In this article, we examine the creative process through an antenarrative lens that we consider very useful for theorizing the creative process from a cultural and sociomaterial perspective. More specifically, we argue that ‘having an idea’ is a contextualized and embodied process that can be regarded as an antenarrative of the overall creative process. We also discuss how the paradoxical relation between the formative and sudden manifestations of the creative act can be understood through the notion of play.     

Parental Attachment and Adjustment to College: The Mediating Role of Avoidant Coping

Many studies have documented an association between parental attachment and college student adjustment. Few studies have explored the mechanisms underlying this association. The authors asked college students nearing the end of their first academic year to complete instruments measuring parental attachment, coping, and adjustment to college. Structural equation modeling was used to model mediation separately for attachment to mother and father. Avoidant coping mechanisms (operationalized as denial, mental disengagement, behavioral disengagement, and substance use) significantly mediated the parental attachment and adjustment to college relationship. Self-sufficient coping mechanisms (operationalized as planning, positive reinterpretation, acceptance, active coping, and suppression) did not mediate the parental attachment and adjustment to college relationship.     

Just how Emotionally Intelligent are Religious Leaders in Britain? A Study among Anglican Clergy in Wales

This study explores the profile of 364 Anglican clergy serving in the Church in Wales (264 clergymen, 93 clergywomen, and 7 who did not disclose their sex) on the Schutte Emotional Intelligence Scale. The data confirm the finding from three earlier studies of church leaders in Britain that both male and female clergy in Britain record significantly lower levels of emotional intelligence in comparison with the standardization data published for this scale. Closer investigation of the scale items, however, questions whether this instrument may offer a fair assessment of the kind of emotional intelligence best suited for pastoral ministry.

     

When Beliefs Lead to (Im)Moral Action: How Believing in Torture's Effectiveness Shapes the Endorsement of Its Use

Does believing in torture's effectiveness shape the endorsements of its use? Using a multimethod approach across six studies, we provide converging evidence that efficacy beliefs can help increase understanding of individual differences and situational influences on torture support. Studies 1a and 1b found that torture opinions contained more efficacy‐based language than other types of harm and that people relied more on torture efficacy than torture's inherent morality when conveying their views. Study 2 assessed predictors of torture favorability including effectiveness and other key covariates, revealing that efficacy beliefs strongly predicted torture favorability—an association that retained its predictive validity above and beyond individual differences known to influence torture support. Mediation analyses further showed that efficacy beliefs explained key associations with torture support. Studies 3 and 4 used moral dilemmas requiring decisions about torture versus other harm. Results showed that individuals who believed harm would be effective were more likely to endorse its use; this was especially evident for torture judgments. Study 5 replicated the torture‐efficacy effect while also revealing efficacy effects for other interrogation techniques, thus suggesting the effect is driven more by the instrumental objective of torture than harm or moral violations. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.