Commentary on Jansen's Paper

Karl Jansen raises a fundamental and exciting question: Is humankind's consciousness the result of neuronal function, or are there extra-cerebral aspects as well? While his neurotransmitter model of near-death experiences (NDEs) is well described, I find his supporting evidence weak. Methodological differences between studies of ketamine hallucinations and near-death experiences (NDEs) raise doubts about how similar those experiences are phenomenologically. While Jansen's model has electrifying implications, the data required to support his conclusions do not yet exist.     

POSTCRITICAL RELIGION AND THE LATENT FREUD

Abstract. Although Freud launches a devastating critique of religion, he makes significant contributions to religious maturity. On the "manifest" level, he attacks religion as illusion; on the "latent" level, however, he is preoccupied with religion as mystery deep in the psyche. This difference is between religion as "critical" or as "postcritical" (Polanyi)—as dualistically split from, or emergent within, the psyche. Postcritical religion appears in Freud as mystery, unity, feeling, meaning, and creative agency. We see why, for Freud, the mother as matrix keeps disappearing and what religious maturity is for "honest smallholders on this earth" who live within matrix as mystery.     

Judging psychopathology: Expectation and contrast

An experiment was performed to assess the role of expectations in psychosocial contrast effects. Subjects were initially presented with a series of word definitions that were either high or low pathology; their task was to indicate those definitions that had been produced by schizophrenic (vs nonschizophrenic) patients. After this “induction” series, subjects were presented with a common “test” series that included both definitions and handwriting samples; they evaluated the degree of psychopathology that was implied by each item. Some subjects were required to state their expectations in connection with the test items. First they attempted to guess the percentage of schizophrenics in the overall test series; second, before being presented with each test item, they guessed whether the patient in question was (or was not) schizophrenic. Subjects' expectations were consistent with the induction series to which they were assigned; those assigned to the high-pathology induction expected the test series to include more schizophrenic patients than those in the low-pathology group. Nonetheless, despite these expectations, subjects showed a contrast effect in their evaluations of the test definitions (but not in evaluating the handwriting samples). That is, subjects from the low-pathology induction group rated the test definitions as being more pathological than did those in the high-pathology condition. Within-group correlations indicated that the subjects' expectations were directly related to subsequent judgments. A two-path model is discussed, relating (a) the respondents' induction group assignment, (b) his/her expectations, and (c) subsequent test judgments.     

Causal ambiguity and heterosexual affiliation

A male's decision to approach a physically attractive female stranger may be fraught with ambivalence. He is drawn by her beauty but he may fear rejection. The conflict lessens, however, if approach can occur under the guise of a motive other than desire to be with the attractive woman. This is because keeping one's true approach motive ambiguous may make direct personal rejection less likely. The effect of ambiguity on males' tendencies to approach females was explored in two experiments. In the first study, presented to subjects as a movie rating exercise, an excuse to sit with an attractive female confederate (a movie preference) was available to some subjects but not to others. As predicted, males only sat with the confederate when a reason for their affiliative behavior, other than her attractiveness, was available. In the second study, male-female dyads were run through the film rating paradigm with the female subjects in the role played by the confederate in Study I. The results of Study I were replicated for the dyads which included attractive females, as expected. The relationships between fear of failure and attributional ambiguity in social and achievement settings are examined. The tendency to discount a person's physical appearance as a cause of social behavior is discussed.     

Marginal distributions for the estimation of proportions inm groups

A Bayesian Model II approach to the estimation of proportions inm groups (discussed by Novick, Lewis, and Jackson) is extended to obtain posterior marginal distributions for the proportions. It is anticipated that these will be useful in applications (such as Individually Prescribed Instruction) where decisions are to be made separately for each proportion, rather than jointly for the set of proportions. In addition, the approach is extended to allow greater use of prior information than previously and the specification of this prior information is discussed.We are grateful to a reviewer for suggestions that made possible a more concise and complete presentation of our work.     

Attitude attribution when behavior is constrained

Five experiments were conducted in which subjects were asked to attribute attitudes to target persons on the basis of opinion statements written under high constraints, i.e., the target persons were instructed to prepare the statements but were given no choice concerning the position to be endorsed. In previous studies it had been observed that reader-subjects tended to attribute attitudes in line with the opinion statement even when the writer obviously had no choice. However, in these earlier studies the opinion endorsements were actually standardized statements prepared by the investigators and they may have contained subtle cues indicating attitude strength. In the present experiments the statements were those actually written by other subjects in response to no choice instructions. Even though the subjects as attributors were well aware of these instructions, and had complied to the same instructions as target persons, attitudes in line with expressed opinions were attributed. In the final experiment, constraints were strengthened even further by the provision of specific arguments that had to be included in the opinion statements. Here the “over attribution effect” finally fell below significance. With the exception of such extreme variants of constraint, the results provide further evidence that people tend to make dispositional attributions to “explain” behavior, underestimating the role of environmental constraints.     

The estimation of proportions inm groups

In many applications, it is desirable to estimate binomial proportions inm groups where it is anticipated that these proportions are similar but not identical. Following a general approach due to Lindley, a Bayesian Model II aposteriori modal estimate is derived that estimates the inverse sine transform of each proportion by a weighted average of the inverse sine transform of the observed proportion in the individual group and the average of the estimated values. Comparison with a classical method due to Jackson spotlights some desirable features of Model II analyses. The simplicity of the present formulation makes it possible to study the behavior of the Bayesian Model II approach more closely than in more complex formulations. Also, it is possible to estimate the amount of gain afforded by the Model II analyses.     

Computing the von Neumann-Morgenstern characteristic functionυ(S) for cooperativen-person transferable utility normal form games: LP and saddlepoint solutions

An APL computer program is described for computing the von Neumann-Morgensterncharacteristic function of cooperativen-person transferable utility games in normal form. The program is designed to stand alone, or it can be used in conjunction with other programs for game theoretic computation that will be introduced in future articles.     

Statistics as psychometrics

In this paper, modern statistics is considered as a branch of psychometrics and the question of how the central problems of statistics can be resolved using psychometric methods is investigated. Theories and methods developed in the fields of test theory, scaling, and factor analysis are related to the principle problems of modern statistical theory and method. Topics surveyed include assessment of probabilities, assessment of utilities, assessment of exchangeability, preposterior analysis, adversary analysis, multiple comparisons, the selection of predictor variables, and full-rank ANOVA. Reference is made to some literature from the field of cognitive psychology to indicate some of the difficulties encountered in probability and utility assessment. Some methods for resolving these difficulties using the Computer-Assisted Data Analysis (CADA) Monitor are described, as is some recent experimental work on utility assessment.1980 Psychometric Society presidential address.I am indebted to Paul Slovic and David Libby for valuable consultation on the issues discussed in this paper and to Nancy Turner and Laura Novick for assistance in preparation.Research reported herein was supported under contract number N00014-77-C-0428 from the Office of Naval Research to The University of Iowa, Melvin R. Novick, principal investigator. Opinions expressed herein reflect those of the author and not those of sponsoring agencies.