Binary choice under instructions to select versus reject

Two experiments examine differences in binary choice under select versus reject instructions. Three aspects of the choice process are examined: commitment to the chosen alternative, absolute magnitude of attribute evaluations, and information distortion during the choice process. Although the findings support previously hypothesized causes (Study 1), these results are reversed when the decision alternatives are uniformly negative (Study 2a). Accompanying verbal protocols (Study 2b) provide additional insights into the underlying decision process. The results consistently support a compatibility effect. Whenever there is a match between the valences of the alternatives and of the decision strategy, namely selecting a positive alternative or rejecting a negative one, there is greater accentuation of attribute differences, higher certainty in the final choice, and more information distortion. Metaphorically, the choice process seems to flow more smoothly in the compatible conditions.     

Visualizing the relationship among indicators for lone actor terrorist attacks: Multidimensional scaling and the TRAP‐18

This validation study analyses data from a sample of North American terrorist attackers (n = 33) and non‐attackers (n = 23) through the lens of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP‐18; Meloy, 2017) utilizing a multivariate statistical approach – multidimensional scaling – to visualize potential clustering (co‐occurrence) of risk factors. Rarely done in terrorism research, the results plotted in two‐dimensional space show the clustering and co‐occurrence of most of the eight proximal warning behaviors among the attackers, but not among the non‐attackers, and less of a clustering and association of distal characteristics, but their presence in both attackers and non‐attackers. These findings provide further empirical support for the rational‐theoretical model of the TRAP‐18, a structured professional judgment instrument for threat assessment of lone actor terrorists. It advances the quantitative analysis of operationally relevant and behaviorally observable indicators for use by law enforcement and counterterrorism professionals and their consultants. Findings are discussed in relation to other research on pre‐offense behaviors of lone actor terrorists, and recommendations are made for both operational use and further research.     

Revisiting the Rorschach of Sirhan Sirhan.

The published Rorschach (Kaiser, 1970) of Sirhan Sirhan, the man who assassinated presidential aspirant Robert F. Kennedy in 1968, was studied. Psychostructural and psychodynamic analyses were conducted using reliable and valid methodology that was unavailable at the time of examination. In contrast to the defense experts at trial who diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia, the data suggest a depressed and suicidal individual organized at a borderline level of personality. Character pathology is hysterical, paranoid, and dependent. When the Rorschach findings are compared to the development history of Sirhan and the behavior around the time of the assassination, the data are somewhat consistent with the theme of psychic trauma, are very consistent with the theme of recurrent loss and pathological mourning, and validate a characterological distrust and hatred of, yet hysterical dependence on, the object world. Rorschach indices of predatory violence (Meloy, 1988a) in relation to the planned and purposeful assassination are also discussed.     

The Operational Development and Empirical Testing of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP–18)

The Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP–18) is a structured professional judgment instrument for threat assessment of the individual terrorist. It is a rationally derived theoretical model comprising eight proximal warning behaviors and 10 distal characteristics. Empirical research on the TRAP–18 is reviewed, including both nomothetic and idiographic studies of individual terrorists in both the United States and Europe. Mean interrater reliability is 0.895 (Cohen's kappa), ranging from 0.69 to 1.0. Evidence of criterion validity has been demonstrated, including usefulness of the instrument across various extremist ideologies (jihadism, ethnic nationalism, and single-issue), and its ability to discriminate between thwarted and successful attackers. The instrument appears to advance the domain recommendations of Monahan (2012, 2016) for the risk assessment of the individual terrorist. The TRAP–18 is further discussed as a threat assessment instrument for mental health clinicians. The limitations of the current research provide direction for further studies to assess its reliability and construct, discriminant, and predictive validity.     

The concept of leakage in threat assessment

Leakage in the context of threat assessment is the communication to a third party of an intent to do harm to a target. Third parties are usually other people, but the means of communication vary, and include letters, diaries, journals, blogs, videos on the internet, emails, voice mails, and other social media forms of transmission. Leakage is a type of warning behavior that typically infers a preoccupation with the target, and may signal the research, planning, and implementation of an attack. Nomothetic data suggest that leakage occurs in a majority of cases of attacks on and assassinations of public figures, adult mass murders, adolescent mass murders, and school or campus shootings: very low-frequency, but catastrophic acts of intended and targeted violence. Idiographic or case data illustrate the various permutations of leakage. We discuss the operational importance of the concept, place it in the context of other warning behaviors, emphasize the need for further research, and outline risk management strategies for the mitigation of such acts of violence in both law enforcement and clinical mental health settings.     

Attacks on German public figures, 1968-2004: warning behaviors, potentially lethal and non-lethal acts, psychiatric status, and motivations

Fourteen non-terrorist attackers of public figures in Germany between 1968 and 2004 were intensively studied, with a particular focus on warning behaviors, attack behaviors, and the relationship between psychiatric diagnosis, symptoms, and motivations for the assault. A large proportion of the attackers were severely mentally ill, and most likely to be in the potentially lethal rather than the non-lethal group. A new typology of seven warning behaviors was applied to the data, and all were present, most frequently fixation and pathway warning behavior, and least frequently a direct threat. Psychiatric diagnosis could be closely linked to motivation when analyzed at the level of symptom and content of thought, often delusional. Most of the attacks were directed at political figures, and the majority occurred after 1995.     

A Rorschach study of attachment and anxiety in inpatient conduct-disordered and dysthymic adolescents.

We investigated the constructs of attachment and anxiety in inpatient conduct-disordered and dysthymic adolescents. Texture, diffuse shading, and pure human content (Exner, 1986) Rorschach indices were compared between 48 subjects who met the criteria for conduct disorder and 30 subjects who met the criteria for dysthymia, according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (3rd ed., rev. [DSM-III-R]; American Psychiatric Association, 1987). We also compared mild, moderate, and severe conduct-disorder groups on the three selected Rorschach variables and investigated certain family characteristics for the two groups. We found a lower frequency of texture and pure human content responses in conduct-disordered subjects and a greater frequency of diffuse shading responses in the dysthymic subjects. The conduct-disordered subjects also came from homes in which the mother figure was significantly less present. Our psychometric findings of lessened attachment and diminished anxiety in the conduct-disordered adolescents are similar to adult psychopaths. We urge that an attachment or socialization disturbance criterion be reintroduced into the forthcoming DSM-IV conduct-disorder diagnosis.     

Information distortion in the evaluation of a single option

Extending previous work on biased predecisional processing, we investigate the distortion of information during the evaluation of a single option. A coherence-based account of the evaluation task suggests that individuals will form an initial assessment of favorability toward the option and then bias their evaluation of subsequent information to cohere with their initial disposition. Three experiments tested this hypothesis. Initial disposition was manipulated (Studies 1 and 3) or measured (Study 2), and attribute ratings were collected as indicators of information distortion. Results from all three experiments indicate that attribute evaluations were biased to favor initial dispositions. These findings provide evidence that information distortion is one cause of primacy effects in judgment and decision-making settings involving a single option.     

Choosing an inferior alternative

We show how decision makers can be induced to choose a personally inferior alternative, a strong violation of rational decision making. First, the inferior alternative is installed as the leading option by starting with information that supports this alternative. Then, the decision maker uses the natural process of distorting new information to support whichever alternative is leading. This leader-supporting distortion overcomes the inherent advantages of the superior alternative. The end result is a tendency to choose the self-identified inferior alternative. We trace the choice process to reveal the amount of distortion and its influence on preference. Self-reported awareness of distortion to support the inferior alternative is not related to the amount of distortion. The absence of valid awareness suggests that the manipulation that produces this preference violation is unlikely to be detected and that the distortion is unlikely to be corrected by the decision maker. As expected, given the lack of awareness, final confidence is just as high when the inferior alternative is chosen as when the superior one is. The discussion considers how to prevent an adversary from manipulating one's decisions using this technique.