The Relationship Between Postdeployment Factors and PTSD Severity in Recent Combat Veterans

Combat traumas precipitate posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD); however, nontraumatic deployment and postdeployment factors may also contribute to PTSD severity. The Deployment Risk and Resilience Inventory (DRRI) was used to investigate pre-, peri-, and postdeployment factors associated with current PTSD severity in 150 recent combat veterans with PTSD and hazardous alcohol use. Hierarchal linear regression analyzed what factors independently predicted PTSD severity when controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and combat specific variables. Four postdeployment factors independently predicted PTSD severity: unemployment, alcohol use, social support, and stressful (nontraumatic) life events. The centrality of trauma in the maintenance of PTSD and clinical implications for treatment providers are discussed.     

Local interactions and the dynamics of rational deliberation

Whereas The Stag Hunt and the Evolution of Social Structure supplements Evolution of the Social Contract by examining some of the earlier work’s strategic problems in a local interaction setting, no equivalent supplement exists for The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation. In this article, I develop a general framework for modeling the dynamics of rational deliberation in a local interaction setting. In doing so, I show that when local interactions are permitted, three interesting phenomena occur: (a) the attracting deliberative equilibria may fail to agree with any of the Nash equilibria of the underlying game, (b) deliberative dynamics which converged to the same deliberative outcome in The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation may lead to different deliberative outcomes here, and (c) Bayesian deliberation seems to be more likely to avoid nonstandard deliberative outcomes, contrary to the result reported in The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation, which argued in favour of the Brown–von Neumann–Nash dynamics.     

Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?

People’s 90% subjective confidence intervals typically contain the true value about 50% of the time, indicating extreme overconfidence. Previous results have been mixed regarding whether experts are as overconfident as novices. Experiment 1 examined interval estimates from information technology (IT) professionals and UC San Diego (UCSD) students about both the IT industry and UCSD. This within-subjects experiment showed that experts and novices were about equally overconfident. Experts reported intervals that had midpoints closer to the true value—which increased hit rate—and that were narrower (i.e., more informative)—which decreased hit rate. The net effect was no change in hit rate and overconfidence. Experiment 2 showed that both experts and novices mistakenly expected experts to be much less overconfident than novices, but they correctly predicted that experts would provide narrower intervals with midpoints closer to the truth. Decisions about whether to consult experts should be based on which aspects of performance are desired.     

A Randomized Controlled Trial of Coach Contact During a Brief Online Intervention for Distressed Couples

The negative impacts of relationship distress on the couple, the family, and the individual are well‐known. However, couples are often unable to access effective treatments to combat these effects—including many couples who might be at highest risk for relationship distress. Online self‐help interventions decrease the barriers to treatment and provide couples with high quality, research‐based programs they can do on their own. Using a combined multiple baseline and randomized design, the present study investigated the effectiveness of the Brief OurRelationship.com (Brief‐OR) program with and without staff support in improving relationship distress and individual functioning. Results indicated the program produced significant gains in several areas of relationship functioning; however, these gains were smaller in magnitude than those observed in Full‐OR. Furthermore, effects of Brief‐OR were not sustained over follow‐up. Comparisons between couples randomized to Brief‐OR with and without contact with a staff coach indicated that coach contact significantly reduced program noncompletion and improved program effects. Limitations and future directions are discussed.     

Explaining purportedly irrational behavior by modeling skepticism in task parameters: an example examining confidence in forced-choice tasks

Many purported demonstrations of irrational behavior rely on the assumption that participants believe key task parameters that are merely asserted by experimenters. For example, previous researchers have found that participants who first reported confidence in items presented in a yes-no format did not change confidence to the degree prescribed by the normative model when those same items were later presented in a forced-choice format. A crucial assumption, however, was that participants fully believed the assertion that the forced-choice items were mutually exclusive and exhaustive. In this article, the authors derive and test a new normative model in which it is not assumed that participants fully believe the assertion. Two visual identification experiments show that the new normative model provides a compelling account of participants' confidence reports.     

Rational models as theories - not standards - of behavior

When people's behavior in laboratory tasks systematically deviates from a rational model, the implication is that real-world performance could be improved by changing the behavior. However, recent studies suggest that behavioral violations of rational models are at least sometimes the result of strategies that are well adapted to the real world (and not necessarily to the laboratory task). Thus, even if one accepts that certain behavior in the laboratory is irrational, compelling evidence that real-world behavior ought to change accordingly is often lacking. It is suggested here that rational models be seen as theories, and not standards, of behavior.     

Comparison of naturalistic and arbitrary discriminative stimuli during schedule thinning following functional communication training

We replicated and extended research on incorporating naturalistic discriminative stimuli into schedule thinning following functional communication training with three boys with autism spectrum disorder who engaged in severe behavior. Comparing naturalistic to arbitrary discriminative stimuli, two participants demonstrated differentiated communication in fewer sessions when arbitrary stimuli were used, while the third participant mastered the discriminations in a comparable number of sessions. Although previous research has demonstrated success in rapidly thinning the schedule with arbitrary stimuli, we extended this line of research by evaluating the extent to which differentiated communication would maintain during rapid schedule thinning in both naturalistic and arbitrary conditions. Two participants' communication remained differentiated, and in both conditions, during rapid schedule thinning. However, neither discrimination maintained for the third participant. Results are discussed in terms of the existing literature and directions for future research.