The elusive wishful thinking effect

Abstract

We define a desirability effect as the inflation of the judged probability of desirable events or the diminution of the judged probability of undersirable events. A series of studies of this effect are reported. In the first four experiments, subjects were presented with visual stimuli (a grid matrix in two colours, or a jar containing beads in two colours), and asked to estimate the probability of drawing at random one of the colours), and asked to estimate the probability of drawing at random one of the colours. The estimated probabilities for a defined draw were not higher when the draw entailed a gain than when it entailed a loss. In the fifth and sixth experiments, subjects read short stories each describing two contestants competing for some desirable outcome (e.g. parents fighting for child custody, or firms bidding for a contract). Some judged the probability that A would win, others judged the Desirability that A would win. Story elements that enhanced a contestant's desirability did not cause the favoured contestant to be judged more likely to win. Only when a contestant's desirability was enhanced by promising the subject of payoff contingent on that contestant's victory was there some slight evidence for a desirability effect: contestants were judged more likely to win when the subject expected a monetary prize if they won than when the subject expected a prize if the other contestant won. In the last experiment, subjects estimated the probability of an over-20-point weekly change in the Dow Jones average, and were promised prizes contingent on such a change either occurring, or failing to occur. They were also given a monetary incentive for accuracy. Subjects who desired a small change. We conclude that desirability effects, when they exist, operate by biasing the evidence brought to mind regarding the event in question, but when a given body of evidence is considered, its judged probability is not influenced by desirability considerations.     

The multidetermined nature of idiom processing

Models of idiom comprehension differ in their predictions concerning compositionality: Some claim that idiomatic meaning is the result of compositional analysis initiated at the earliest stages of comprehension, whereas others claim that compositional analysis occurs only at late stages, subsequent to direct retrieval--especially for idioms that are highly familiar. We evaluated these alternatives in four experiments by using a variety of online and offline comprehension measures. In Experiment 1, we analyzed the normative characteristics of 219 idioms with respect to these predictions. Dimensions of interest included several measures of decomposability, familiarity, and word frequency of the idioms' verbs and nouns. In Experiments 2 through 4, we determined how these dimensions relate to several online measures of idiom comprehension. High familiarity was associated with good comprehension across all experiments; however, facilitative effects of decomposability were found only for tasks that required an overt semantic judgment. Word frequency, but not semantic decomposability of the idiom-initial verb, was associated with comprehension for some measures. These data support a model of idiom comprehension, according to which figurative meaning arises from the time-dependent availability of multiple linguistic constraints, and in which decomposability plays a limited role in the earliest stages of idiom comprehension. Normative data for 210 of the idiomatic phrases may be downloaded from the Psychonomic Society Web archive at www.psychonomic.org/archive/.     

Expressive timing and interactional synchrony between mothers and infants: cultural similarities, cultural differences, and the immigration experience

The spontaneous vocal interactions of 30 mothers and their 2- to 5-month-old infants from India, France, and the United States were analyzed using an acoustic analysis method. Similarities and differences in vocal interactional patterns were highlighted between the three groups. On the one hand, in the three cultural contexts mother–infant vocal interaction was found to be organized around hierarchical temporal intervals of the same approximate length, had the same balance between regular rhythm and variation (“expressive timing”), and manifested the same coordination between mother and infant vocalization (“interactional synchrony”). On the other hand, the three groups also revealed cultural variability. The Indian mothers had more togetherness with their babies, as indexed by less space between vocal turns and more overlap of mother and baby vocalizations. They also produced a higher ratio of nonverbal to verbal vocalizations. The spontaneous vocal interactions of a group of 30 Indian immigrant dyads were also studied. With respect to culturally variable characteristics, the vocal interaction of immigrant dyads living in the United States showed signs of change in the direction of the host culture. With respect to characteristics shared by all three nonimmigrant groups, the immigrant dyads showed lower levels of expressive timing and interactional synchrony than the nonimmigrant group as a whole.     

Participants shift response deadlines based on list difficulty during reading-aloud megastudies

We tested the list homogeneity effect in reading aloud (e.g., Lupker, Brown, & Colombo, 1997) using a megastudy paradigm. In each of two conditions, we used 25 blocks of 100 trials. In the random condition, words were selected randomly for each block, whereas in the experimental condition, words were blocked by difficulty (e.g., easy words together, etc.), but the order of the blocks was randomized. We predicted that standard factors (e.g., frequency) would be more predictive of reaction times (RTs) in the blocked than in the random condition, because the range of RTs across the experiment would increase in the blocked condition. Indeed, we found that the standard deviations and ranges of RTs were larger in the blocked than in the random condition. In addition, an examination of items at the difficulty extremes (i.e., very easy vs. very difficult) demonstrated a response bias. In regression analyses, a predictor set of seven sublexical, lexical, and semantic variables accounted for 2.8% more RT variance (and 2.6% more zRT variance) in the blocked than in the random condition. These results indicate that response deadlines apply to megastudies of reading aloud, and that the influence of predictors may be underestimated in megastudies when item presentation is randomized. In addition, the CDP++ model accounted for 0.8% more variance in RTs (1.2% in zRTs) in the blocked than in the random condition. Thus, computational models may have more predictive power on item sets blocked by difficulty than on those presented in random order. The results also indicate that models of word processing need to accommodate response criterion shifts.     

Aktuelle Entwicklungslinien in der Pers?nlichkeitsforschung im Jugendalter

Personality disorders in juveniles are still a controversially discussed topic. The aim of this paper is to describe the recent trend in personality research in adolescence and to outline perspectives in research and assessment. Recent study results have pointed out that personality disorders in juveniles can be reliably assessed with diagnostic instruments that have been developed for adults. At the same time there is a lack of specific instruments that can represent the characteristics during adolescence and that can differentiate personality disorders from youth crises. As some personality disorder dimensions also describe unstable developmental criteria we will focus separately on this differential diagnosis and meaning of stable versus transient personality characteristics in youth. The prevalence of personality disorders seems to be higher in adolescence than in adulthood. The stability, however, is comparable in adolescence and adulthood. Psychopathy as a subtype of the antisocial personality disorder ?C that can also be assessed in juveniles ?C will be discussed regarding its core and behavioral dimensions as well as primary and secondary subtypes. Furthermore, we discuss forensic issues when assessing personality disorders with respect to criminal responsibility. Overall we can show that more diagnostic longitudinal studies are essential in order to clarify under which conditions personality disorders develop, which factors influence its course and which interventions can change them.     

Tempting fate or inviting happiness?: unrealistic idealization prevents the decline of marital satisfaction

This article examines whether unrealistically viewing a romantic partner as resembling one's ideal partner accelerates or slows declines in marital satisfaction among newlyweds. A longitudinal study linked unrealistic idealization at the time of marriage to changes in satisfaction over the first 3 years of marriage. Overall, satisfaction declined markedly, a finding that is consistent with past research. However, seeing a less-than-ideal partner as a reflection of one's ideals predicted a certain level of protection against the corrosive effects of time: People who initially idealized their partner the most experienced no decline in satisfaction. The benefits of idealization remained in analyses that controlled separately for the positivity of partner perceptions and the possibility that better adjusted people might be in better relationships.     

Lay Perceptions of Selection Decision Aids in US and Non‐US Samples

Understanding why decision makers resist using standardized approaches to employee selection requires understanding basic feelings and beliefs about different approaches for collecting and combining assessment information. This study examines lay perceptions of selection decision aids, using a sample of 418 working adults. Holding constant the attributes measured, participants from the United States perceive holistic integration to be superior to mechanical integration for combining interview scores, as well as for combining test scores. Participants from outside of the United States prefer holistic integration of interview scores, but slightly prefer mechanical integration of test scores.     

Are we puppets on a string? The contextual meaning of unconscious expressive cues

In three studies, the authors show that unconscious expressive cues can lead to opposite evaluations, depending on the context in which they occur. In Study 1, brow (vs. cheek) tension reduced preferences in an easy judgment context but increased preferences in a difficult context. In Study 2, head shaking (vs. nodding) either increased or decreased prosocial affect depending on the context in which the judged character was presented. In Study 3, a subliminal smile (vs. frown) led to higher self-ratings of performance when paired with one's own actions but to lower self-ratings of performance when paired with a competitor's actions. Together, these results suggest that the meaning of unconscious expressive cues is not fixed.     

Early detection of core deficits in autism

The goal of this review of the research literature is to discuss approaches to the early detection of autism in infancy. Early detection would enable diagnoses to be made before 18 months of age rather than at 24-30 months, the age where diagnoses start to be made now. After summarizing the criteria for a deficit to be considered "core" to the disorder, the literature on research strategies used in early detection is examined. In order to guide the design of future studies, the review then turns to an overview of what is known about the processes of early social development in typically developing children that underlie the domains in which core deficits are manifested in young children with autism. The social domains covered in the review are those that show development in typically developing infants below 18 months of age: dyadic interaction and imitation; emotion discrimination; and attachment. The review concludes that all of these areas are worthy of investigation in young children, particularly those at higher risk of showing some of the core deficits of autism such as the infant siblings of children with autism.