Mathematical models of foreign policy decision-making: Compensatory vs. noncompensatory

There are presently two leading foreign policy decision-making paradigms in vogue. The first is based on the classical or rational model originally posited by von Neumann and Morgenstern to explain microeconomic decisions. The second is based on the cybernetic perspective whose groundwork was laid by Herbert Simon in his early research on bounded rationality. In this paper we introduce a third perspective — thepoliheuristic theory of decision-making — as an alternative to the rational actor and cybernetic paradigms in international relations. This theory is drawn in large part from research on heuristics done in experimental cognitive psychology. According to the poliheuristic theory, policy makers use poly (many) heuristics while focusing on a very narrow range of options and dimensions when making decisions. Among them, the political dimension is noncompensatory. The paper also delineates the mathematical formulations of the three decision-making models.The authors thank Raymond Dacey for his helpful comments.     

Concurrent and predictive electrodermal correlates of symptomatology in recent-onset schizophrenic patients.

Electrodermal activity and symptomatology were interrelated in a group of 56 male and 13 female recent-onset schizophrenic patients. Electrodermal activity was indexed by the frequency of nonspecific skin conductances responses and the number of trials to habituation of the skin conductance orienting response. Symptomatology was assessed by the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) on two separate test occasions. The first test occasion was during the inpatient period when psychotic symptoms were prevalent and medications were variable. The second test occasion was several months later during an outpatient period when symptoms were stabilized and medications held constant. Electrodermal activity was positively and significantly related to a number of symptoms in male patients, most reliably the BPRS factors Activation and Hostility/Suspiciousness. These relationships were most consistent during the outpatient period. Of particular theoretical interest, greater electrodermal activity during the inpatient period was associated with greater outpatient psychopathology. The results suggest that heightened inpatient electrodermal activity is predictive of poor short-term symptomatic recovery in recent-onset, acute, male schizophrenic patients.     

An interpersonal circumplex model of children's social goals: links with peer-reported behavior and sociometric status

The objective of the present research was to develop an assessment model for children's social goals. The aims were (a) to fit children's social goals to a circumplex model and to examine links between goals and peer-reported social behaviors (aggression, withdrawal, and prosocial behavior) in a sample of 276 participants (134 girls, 11- to 12-year-olds) and (b) to replicate these findings and examine whether social behavior mediates the relationship between goals and sociometric status in an independent cross-validation sample of 310 participants (143 girls, 11- to 13-year-olds). Results showed a satisfactory fit to the circumplex model and adequate psychometric properties of the goal scales of the new measure, the Interpersonal Goals Inventory for Children. Other findings included significant and meaningful relations between goals and peer-reported behavior. Social behavior mediated the relations between goals and sociometric status.     

Stimulus control in fixed ratio matching-to-sample

Pigeons were maintained on a fixed ratio (FR 9) schedule of reinforcement for correct matching-to-sample responses. Included in the test situation was a vertical array of lights, illuminated in relation to the successive steps of the fixed ratio. All five subjects showed regular decrements in matching errors across the sequence of unreinforced responses within the ratio cycle. In the form of a randomly introduced probe, the stimulus situation (array of lights) appropriate to having seven of the FR 9 steps already completed was occasionally introduced at the beginning of an FR cycle. Reinforcement followed the illumination of the two remaining lights by two correct matches. The number of errors in this probe condition was sharply lower than the errors characteristic of the first two steps of the basic FR 9.     

Lexical access to inflected words as measured by lateralized visual lexical decision

In two lateralized visual lexical decision experiments conducted with normal subjects, we studied hemispheric performance in the recognition of case-inflected Finnish nouns. Previous research employing mainly locative cases has indicated that such noun forms undergo morphological decomposition. The present experiments extend this finding to syntactic cases by showing that nouns with partitive or genitive endings take longer to recognize and elicit more errors than otherwise comparable monomorphemic nominative singular nouns. Morpheme-based recognition of all case-inflected forms would be a particularly appropriate solution for mental lexicon in highly inflecting languages like Finnish: it saves storage space and enables fast recognition of inflected forms not encountered before. In real words, morphological structure did not interact with visual field. However, particularly demanding, morphologically decomposable nonwords elicited more errors in the left visual field/right hemisphere than did nondecomposable nonwords. Our results suggest that at least in Finnish, both hemispheres are capable of morpheme-based access, but this mechanism is more accurate in the left than in the right hemisphere. Received: 21 May 1997 / Accepted: 19 January 1998     

Structural couplings between individual development and the epigenesis of family relations in schizophrenia: An eight-year follow-up

The aim of this research was to study individual development along with the epigenesis of family relations in an eight-year follow-up of schizophrenia. The five epigenetic phases described by Wynne are attachment/caregiving, communicating, joint problemsolving, mutuality, and intimacy. Results showed that the critical level of epigenesis was the communicating level; its resolution was statistically significantly connected to good prognosis concerning individual parameters. The mother-child dyad was usually epigenetically the most developed dyad in the family. We think this study gives a new paradigm for understanding connecting interconnections between individual and family dynamics in schizophrenia and valuable information for planning the integrated and need-specific treatment of schizophrenia and evaluating the course and prognosis of schizophrenia.This study was carried out at the Clinic of Psychiatry of the University of Turku, Finland, and financially supported by the Academy of Finland. The head of the project was Professor Yrjö O. Alanen. We have also been in cooperation with and received valuable constructive criticism from Professor Lyman C. Wynne, whose theoretical model we applied in this study. Ms. Birgitta Nolvi's secretarial work was greatly appreciated.     

Preschool children's learning proclivities: When the ritual stance trumps the instrumental stance

Previous research has demonstrated an efficiency bias in social learning whereby young children preferentially imitate the functional actions of a successful individual over an unsuccessful group member. Our aim in the current research was to examine whether this bias remains when actions are presented as conventional rather than instrumental. Preschool children watched videos of an individual and a group member. The individual always demonstrated a successful instrumental action and the group member an unsuccessful action that was either causally transparent or opaque. Highlighting the selective nature of social learning, children copied the group at higher rates when the demonstrated actions were causally opaque than when they were causally transparent. This research draws attention to the influence of conventional/ritual‐like actions on young children's learning choices and emphasizes the role of this orientation in the development of human‐specific cumulative culture.