The Diachronic Coherence of Ungraded Beliefs

This paper works within a model of ungraded belief that characterizes epistemic states as logically closed and consistent sets of sentences. The aim of this paper is to discuss three diachronic coherence conditions for such beliefs. These coherence conditions are formulated in terms of the reasoner's present beliefs about how his present beliefs will evolve in the future, for instance, in response to different pieces of future evidence.     

The Coherence Argument Against Conditionalization

I re-examine Coherence Arguments (Dutch Book Arguments, No Arbitrage Arguments) for diachronic constraints on Bayesian reasoning. I suggest to replace the usual game–theoretic coherence condition with a new decision–theoretic condition ('Diachronic Sure Thing Principle'). The new condition meets a large part of the standard objections against the Coherence Argument and frees it, in particular, from a commitment to additive utilities. It also facilitates the proof of the Converse Dutch Book Theorem. I first apply the improved Coherence Argument to van Fraassen's (1984) Reflection principle. I then point out the failure of a Coherence Argument that is intended to support Conditionalization as a naive, universal, update rule. I also point out that Reflection is incompatible with the universal use of Conditionalization thus interpreted. The Coherence Argument therefore defeats the naive view on Bayesian learning that it was originally designed to justify. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Life Circumstances and Personal Resources as Predictors of the Ten-Year Course of Depression

A 10-year naturalistic study of 313 patients who entered treatment for unipolar depression and a community comparison group of 284 nondepressed adults was conducted. We compared life stressors, social resources, personal resources, and coping among patients who were remitted (N = 76), partially remitted (N = 146), or nonremitted (N = 91). Compared with the controls and the remitted patients, the partially remitted and nonremitted patients consistently experienced more life stressors and fewer social resources, were less easygoing, and relied more on avoidance coping. A less easygoing disposition, fewer close relationships, and more reliance on avoidance coping were associated with higher odds of experiencing a course of partial remission or nonremission. In addition, more depressive symptoms and medical conditions predicted nonremission.     

Context and coping: Toward a unifying conceptual framework

After offering a conceptual framework to unify the domains of context and coping, some conclusions are drawn about the underlying patterns of social climate and the characteristics of growth-promoting environments. New directions of research on the dynamics of the environmental system are described. The conceptual framework is used to exemplify ways to explore the stress and coping process in regard to such issues as stress and resource predictors of adaptation, stress prevention and resistance, and cross-situational influences. The foregoing material then highlights implications of a social ecological perspective for conducting conceptually informed evaluation research and changing and improving community settings. Finally, such conceptual problems as person-environment matching and the need to formulate unified perspectives of stressors and resources are discussed to identify promising ways to spark the maturation of community psychology.     

The conceptual structure of aphasic and schizophrenic patients in a nonverbal sorting task

Hierarchical and overlapping cluster methods were applied to the sortings of aphasic, nonaphasic brain-damaged, schizophrenic, and normal subjects presented with 30 pictures of animals. The hierarchical structure solutions were most diffuse for the groups of the schizophrenics and the fluent aphasics. The structure for the nonfluent aphasics showed more clarity, but was also deviant from the structures of the normals and the brain-damaged without aphasia. Fluent aphasics but not nonfluent aphasics tended to sort pictures which they could not name into smaller groups. For the nonfluent aphasics, there was a significant correlation between the commonality of the sortings and the severity of aphasic disturbances as measured by the Token Test. The relationship between conceptual disorganization and language impairment seems to be functionally different for fluent and nonfluent aphasics.This research was supported by a research grant from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.     

Stability of National-Identity Content: Level,Predictors, and Implications

A neglected topic in empirical research on national identity is its stability at the individual level, and this is especially true for its content, that is, the meaning elements that people associate with the concept of nation. In this article, we study the stability of key dimensions of national-identity content. We ask three simple questions: How stable is national-identity content—as captured in the ethnic/civic framework—at the level of individual citizens? Are there clear differences in stability across subgroups? What are the implications of interindividual differences in stability? Analyzing data from four waves of a large-scale panel survey of German citizens (N = 4,654) collected over a five-year period (2016–21), we show that there is high but not perfect stability of the degree to which individuals subscribe to ethnic and civic criteria of nationhood. Second, we find little difference in stability as a function of several theoretically selected characteristics. Third, we show that the association between national-identity content and relevant political attitudes (immigration attitudes and far-right party support) increases with intraindividual stability. These findings have important implications for our understanding of how national-identity content is shaped and mobilized and how it can influence political attitudes and behaviors.     

A hierarchical latent response model for inferences about examinee engagement in terms of guessing and item-level non-response

In low-stakes assessments, test performance has few or no consequences for examinees themselves, so that examinees may not be fully engaged when answering the items. Instead of engaging in solution behaviour, disengaged examinees might randomly guess or generate no response at all. When ignored, examinee disengagement poses a severe threat to the validity of results obtained from low-stakes assessments. Statistical modelling approaches in educational measurement have been proposed that account for non-response or for guessing, but do not consider both types of disengaged behaviour simultaneously. We bring together research on modelling examinee engagement and research on missing values and present a hierarchical latent response model for identifying and modelling the processes associated with examinee disengagement jointly with the processes associated with engaged responses. To that end, we employ a mixture model that identifies disengagement at the item-by-examinee level by assuming different data-generating processes underlying item responses and omissions, respectively, as well as response times associated with engaged and disengaged behaviour. By modelling examinee engagement with a latent response framework, the model allows assessing how examinee engagement relates to ability and speed as well as to identify items that are likely to evoke disengaged test-taking behaviour. An illustration of the model by means of an application to real data is presented.