Evaluation of two methods of prompting drivers to use specific exits on conflicts between vehicles at the critical exit

The Florida Department of Transportation used a series of changeable-message signs that functioned as freeway guide signs to divert traffic to Universal Theme Park via one of two eastbound exits based on traffic congestion at the first of the two exits. An examination of crashes along the entire route indicated a statistically significant increase in crashes at the first eastbound exit following the actuation of the system. Furthermore, all of the crashes occurred in close proximity to the exit gore (the crosshatched area at exits that drivers are not supposed to enter or traverse) at the first exit. In Experiment 1, behavioral data were collected using an alternating treatments design. These data revealed that reassigning the exit signs was effective in producing a change in the percentage of drivers using each of the two exits. These data also showed that the reassignment of the theme park exit was associated with an increase in the percentage of motor vehicle conflicts that consisted of vehicles cutting across the exit gore. An analysis revealed that the method used for switching the designated or active theme park exit on the series of changeable-message signs led to the presentation of conflicting messages to some motorists, thus resulting in erratic driving behavior (cutting across the exit gore). In Experiment 2, the treatment evaluated the use of a phased method of switching the designated theme park exit to eliminate the delivery of conflicting messages. The new method for switching the designated theme park exit was not associated with an increase in motorists cutting across the exit gore.     

Selective attention, inhibition for repeated events and hemispheric specialization

When two visual events appear consecutively in the same spatial location, our response to the second event is slower than to the first. This inhibition for repeated events may reflect a bias toward sampling novel locations, a bias useful for exploring visual space. It has been shown that the left hemisphere is more specialized in selective attentional processes than the right one. The aim of the present experiment was to test if this hemispheric specialization for selective attention may also affect the inhibition for repeated events. For this purpose, we asked 11 normal subjects to perform an identity-based discrimination task in which the target to be detected could appear alone or surrounded by flanking letters, in the left or in the right visual field. Results show that inhibition for repeated events is present only when selective attention is required and when the task is performed in the right specialized visual field.     

Contextual information modulates initial processes of syntactic integration: the role of inter- versus intrasentential predictions

The authors demonstrate that intersentential context may influence syntactic integration processes during online sentence comprehension, although this influence appears to be restricted to cases in which a contextual requirement must be fulfilled. By applying event-related brain potentials to the processing of clause-medial word order variations in German, the authors show that the local processing difficulty (a negativity from 300 to 450 ms) observed for object-initial sentences in a neutral context is also obtained in a (behaviorally) facilitating context in which the object is contextually given. By contrast, the processing pattern for a focused (questioned) initial object does not differ from that for a focused subject: both elicit a parietal positivity (280-480 ms) post-onset of the focused phrase. The authors interpret this early positivity as a general marker of focus integration, a process that appears to briefly supersede sentence-internal requirements.     

Organization of compensatory postural coordination patterns

The authors investigated whether compensatory postural coordination patterns are organized according to the same dynamical principles as are nonequilibrium phase transitions. Eight participants were asked to maintain upright balance on a moving platform that was sinusoidally translated in the anterior-posterior direction and was systematically increased and decreased 0.19 Hz as a step function every 10 platform cycles through the frequency range 0.19-1.46 Hz. At low platform frequencies, all participants exhibited small joint angular motions with high variability, and the relative phase between the joint motions exhibited drifting patterns and large fluctuations. As platform frequency increased, the amplitude of joint motion increased systematically and joint-specific oscillatory patterns emerged. The findings provided no evidence for a Hopf bifurcation or hysteresis in the transitions of postural coordination modes, however, or, more generally, a basis for distinguishing the relevance of linear versus nonlinear models of postural control.     

Assumptions and consequences of treating providers in therapy studies as fixed versus random effects: reply to Crits-Christoph, Tu, and Gallop (2003) and Serlin, Wampold, and Levin (2003)

In their comments on the authors' article, R. C. Serlin, B. E. Wampold, and J. R. Levin and P. Crits-Christoph, X. Tu, and R. Gallop took issue with the authors' suggestion to evaluate therapy studies with nested providers with a fixed model approach. In this rejoinder, the authors' comment on Serlin et al's critique by showing that their arguments do not apply, are based on misconceptions about the purpose and nature of statistical inference, or are based on flawed reasoning. The authors also comment on Crits-Christoph et al's critique by showing that the proposed approach is very similar to, but less inclusive than, their own suggestion.     

Power and measures of effect size in analysis of variance with fixed versus random nested factors

Ignoring a nested factor can influence the validity of statistical decisions about treatment effectiveness. Previous discussions have centered on consequences of ignoring nested factors versus treating them as random factors on Type I errors and measures of effect size (B. E. Wampold & R. C. Serlin). The authors (a) discuss circumstances under which the treatment of nested provider effects as fixed as opposed to random is appropriate; (b) present 2 formulas for the correct estimation of effect sizes when nested factors are fixed; (c) present the results of Monte Carlo simulations of the consequences of treating providers as fixed versus random on effect size estimates, Type I error rates, and power; and (d) discuss implications of mistaken considerations of provider effects for the study of differential treatment effects in psychotherapy research.     

Quantifiers and Congruence Closure

We prove some results about the limitations of the expressive power of quantifiers on finite structures. We define the concept of a bounded quantifier and prove that every relativizing quantifier which is bounded is already first-order definable (Theorem 3.8). We weaken the concept of congruence closed (see [6]) to weakly congruence closed by restricting to congruence relations where all classes have the same size. Adapting the concept of a thin quantifier (Caicedo [1]) to the framework of finite structures, we define the concept of a meager quantifier. We show that no proper extension of first-order logic by means of meager quantifiers is weakly congruence closed (Theorem 4.9). We prove the failure of the full congruence closure property for logics which extend first-order logic by means of meager quantifiers, arbitrary monadic quantifiers, and the Härtig quantifier (Theorem 6.1).     

The Diachronic Coherence of Ungraded Beliefs

This paper works within a model of ungraded belief that characterizes epistemic states as logically closed and consistent sets of sentences. The aim of this paper is to discuss three diachronic coherence conditions for such beliefs. These coherence conditions are formulated in terms of the reasoner's present beliefs about how his present beliefs will evolve in the future, for instance, in response to different pieces of future evidence.     

The Coherence Argument Against Conditionalization

I re-examine Coherence Arguments (Dutch Book Arguments, No Arbitrage Arguments) for diachronic constraints on Bayesian reasoning. I suggest to replace the usual game–theoretic coherence condition with a new decision–theoretic condition ('Diachronic Sure Thing Principle'). The new condition meets a large part of the standard objections against the Coherence Argument and frees it, in particular, from a commitment to additive utilities. It also facilitates the proof of the Converse Dutch Book Theorem. I first apply the improved Coherence Argument to van Fraassen's (1984) Reflection principle. I then point out the failure of a Coherence Argument that is intended to support Conditionalization as a naive, universal, update rule. I also point out that Reflection is incompatible with the universal use of Conditionalization thus interpreted. The Coherence Argument therefore defeats the naive view on Bayesian learning that it was originally designed to justify. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Stability of National-Identity Content: Level,Predictors, and Implications

A neglected topic in empirical research on national identity is its stability at the individual level, and this is especially true for its content, that is, the meaning elements that people associate with the concept of nation. In this article, we study the stability of key dimensions of national-identity content. We ask three simple questions: How stable is national-identity content—as captured in the ethnic/civic framework—at the level of individual citizens? Are there clear differences in stability across subgroups? What are the implications of interindividual differences in stability? Analyzing data from four waves of a large-scale panel survey of German citizens (N = 4,654) collected over a five-year period (2016–21), we show that there is high but not perfect stability of the degree to which individuals subscribe to ethnic and civic criteria of nationhood. Second, we find little difference in stability as a function of several theoretically selected characteristics. Third, we show that the association between national-identity content and relevant political attitudes (immigration attitudes and far-right party support) increases with intraindividual stability. These findings have important implications for our understanding of how national-identity content is shaped and mobilized and how it can influence political attitudes and behaviors.