Power and measures of effect size in analysis of variance with fixed versus random nested factors

Ignoring a nested factor can influence the validity of statistical decisions about treatment effectiveness. Previous discussions have centered on consequences of ignoring nested factors versus treating them as random factors on Type I errors and measures of effect size (B. E. Wampold & R. C. Serlin). The authors (a) discuss circumstances under which the treatment of nested provider effects as fixed as opposed to random is appropriate; (b) present 2 formulas for the correct estimation of effect sizes when nested factors are fixed; (c) present the results of Monte Carlo simulations of the consequences of treating providers as fixed versus random on effect size estimates, Type I error rates, and power; and (d) discuss implications of mistaken considerations of provider effects for the study of differential treatment effects in psychotherapy research.     

Moderators of the Relation Between Popularity and Depressive Symptoms in Children: Processing Strength and Friendship Value

Children with low (n = 25) and high (n = 38) peer-rated popularity completed an emotional Stroop task, using negative social words, a self-report measure of friendship value relative to other domains of competence, and the Child Depression Inventory (CDI). Six months later, they completed the CDI again. In regression analyses, after controlling for prior CDI scores, social status interacted significantly with both Stroop and value measures (separate regressions). For unpopular children, both greater friendship valuing and greater negative social word Stroop interference predicted increases in depressive symptoms. In contrast, neither predictor was significant for popular children. In a third regression that included friendship value and Stroop interference as joint predictors of depression change, their effects remained significant and independent. We discuss these findings' implications for 3 models of depression; Champion and Power's social-cognitive theory of depression (L. A. Champion and M. J. Power, 1995), Pyszczynski and Greenberg's self-regulatory perseveration theory of depression (T. Pyszczynski & J. Greenberg, 1992), and Harter's model of global self-worth (S. Harter, 1985).     

Quantifiers and Congruence Closure

We prove some results about the limitations of the expressive power of quantifiers on finite structures. We define the concept of a bounded quantifier and prove that every relativizing quantifier which is bounded is already first-order definable (Theorem 3.8). We weaken the concept of congruence closed (see [6]) to weakly congruence closed by restricting to congruence relations where all classes have the same size. Adapting the concept of a thin quantifier (Caicedo [1]) to the framework of finite structures, we define the concept of a meager quantifier. We show that no proper extension of first-order logic by means of meager quantifiers is weakly congruence closed (Theorem 4.9). We prove the failure of the full congruence closure property for logics which extend first-order logic by means of meager quantifiers, arbitrary monadic quantifiers, and the Härtig quantifier (Theorem 6.1).     

The Diachronic Coherence of Ungraded Beliefs

This paper works within a model of ungraded belief that characterizes epistemic states as logically closed and consistent sets of sentences. The aim of this paper is to discuss three diachronic coherence conditions for such beliefs. These coherence conditions are formulated in terms of the reasoner's present beliefs about how his present beliefs will evolve in the future, for instance, in response to different pieces of future evidence.     

The Coherence Argument Against Conditionalization

I re-examine Coherence Arguments (Dutch Book Arguments, No Arbitrage Arguments) for diachronic constraints on Bayesian reasoning. I suggest to replace the usual game–theoretic coherence condition with a new decision–theoretic condition ('Diachronic Sure Thing Principle'). The new condition meets a large part of the standard objections against the Coherence Argument and frees it, in particular, from a commitment to additive utilities. It also facilitates the proof of the Converse Dutch Book Theorem. I first apply the improved Coherence Argument to van Fraassen's (1984) Reflection principle. I then point out the failure of a Coherence Argument that is intended to support Conditionalization as a naive, universal, update rule. I also point out that Reflection is incompatible with the universal use of Conditionalization thus interpreted. The Coherence Argument therefore defeats the naive view on Bayesian learning that it was originally designed to justify. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Stability of National-Identity Content: Level,Predictors, and Implications

A neglected topic in empirical research on national identity is its stability at the individual level, and this is especially true for its content, that is, the meaning elements that people associate with the concept of nation. In this article, we study the stability of key dimensions of national-identity content. We ask three simple questions: How stable is national-identity content—as captured in the ethnic/civic framework—at the level of individual citizens? Are there clear differences in stability across subgroups? What are the implications of interindividual differences in stability? Analyzing data from four waves of a large-scale panel survey of German citizens (N = 4,654) collected over a five-year period (2016–21), we show that there is high but not perfect stability of the degree to which individuals subscribe to ethnic and civic criteria of nationhood. Second, we find little difference in stability as a function of several theoretically selected characteristics. Third, we show that the association between national-identity content and relevant political attitudes (immigration attitudes and far-right party support) increases with intraindividual stability. These findings have important implications for our understanding of how national-identity content is shaped and mobilized and how it can influence political attitudes and behaviors.     

Sex differences in self-reported coronary-prone factors

The FABA self-report questionnaire on coronary-prone behaviour was applied to 628 GDR subjects (343 males, 285 females), who included students, blue- and white-collar workers, and hypertensive patients, all split into three age groups (18–30, 31–50, and 51–65 years). Four scales had been previously established by factor analysis: Work Obsession (WO), Dominance/Competition (DC), Reactive Uncontrol (RU), and Need for Planning (PN). Two-tailed MANOVA and ANOVA were applied to analyse the effects of sex, age, and type of respondent (i.e. student, worker, or hypertensive) on scale means, using the defined sub-groups. No significant sex differences on WO and PN were found. With regard to DC, males of all sub-groups consistently rated themselves as more dominant and competitive than females. These differences were highly significant. RU was higher only in female students and female hypertensives. There was a significant age effect on DC and PN: the older the workers and hypertensives of both sexes, the more dominant and obsessed with planning they were. No influence of the type of respondent was apparent. Results are discussed in the light of cross-cultural research on gender differences and the particular socio-economic situation of the former GDR. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing Personality States: What to Consider when Constructing Personality State Measures

Repeated assessments of personality states in daily diary or experience sampling studies have become a more and more common tool in the psychologist's toolbox. However, and contrary to the widely available literature on personality traits, no best practices for the development of personality state measures exist, and personality state measures have been developed in many different ways. To address this, we first define what a personality state is and discuss important components. On the basis of this, we define what a personality state measure is and suggest a general guideline for the development of such measures. Following the ABC of test construction can then guide the strategy for obtaining validity and reliability evidence: (A) What is the construct being measured? (B) What is the intended purpose of the measure? And (C) What is the targeted population of persons and situations? We then conclude with an example by developing an initial item pool for the assessment of conscientiousness personality states. © 2020 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology     

Understanding Personality through Patterns of Daily Socializing: Applying Recurrence Quantification Analysis to Naturalistically Observed Intensive Longitudinal Social Interaction Data

Ambulatory assessment methods provide a rich approach for studying daily behaviour. Too often, however, these data are analysed in terms of averages, neglecting patterning of this behaviour over time. This paper describes recurrence quantification analysis (RQA), a non-linear time series technique for analysing dynamic systems, as a method for analysing patterns of categorical, intensive longitudinal ambulatory assessment data. We apply RQA to objectively assessed social behaviour (e.g. talking to another person) coded from the Electronically Activated Recorder. Conceptual interpretations of RQA parameters, and an analysis of Electronically Activated Recorder data in adults going through a marital separation, are provided. Using machine learning techniques to avoid model overfitting, we find that adding RQA parameters to models that include just average amount of time spent talking (a static measure) improves prediction of four Big Five personality traits: extraversion, neuroticism, conscientiousness, and openness. Our strongest results suggest that a combination of average amount of time spent talking and four RQA parameters yield an R² = .09 for neuroticism. Neuroticism is shown to be associated with shorter periods of extended conversation (periods of at least 12 minutes), demonstrating the utility of RQA to identify new relationships between personality and patterns of daily behaviour. Materials: https://osf.io/5nkr9/ . © 2020 European Association of Personality Psychology