Instability Of Ex Post Aggregation In The Bolker–Jeffrey Framework And Related Instability Phenomena

Suppose n Bayesian agents need to make a decision as a group. The groupas a whole is also supposed to be a Bayesian agent whose probabilities andutilities are derived or aggregated in reasonable ways from the probabilitiesand utilities of the group members. The aggregation could beex ante, i.e., interms of expected utilities, or it could be ex post, i.e., in terms of utilitiesonly, or in terms of utilities and probabilities separately. This study exploresthe ex post approach. Using the Bolker/Jeffrey framework, we show thatex post aggregation is subject to an instability phenomenon. That is, it mayhappen that the group preference between actions ``flips back and forth' dependingon the level of detail in which the decision problem is described. Structurally verysimilar phenomena also occur elsewhere in social choice theory, in statistics (Simpson'sParadox), and in voting theory (Ostrogorski's Paradox).     

Once More about Boesch’s Ontological Predication in Focus

In this article I address some more aspects regarding Boesch’s ontological predication aiming to clarify mistaken comprehensions as appeared in Perez-Campos” (2017) detailed work on my former paper about this issue (Simão 2016b). With this purpose, the following three aspects will be approached: the philosophical roots of my former proposal; the place of Boesch’s symbolic action theory in that proposal and the relevance of this discussion for the relationship between ontology and psychology.     

Characterizing aggressive behavior

In the research literature, aggressive behavior has traditionally been classified into two distinct subtypes, impulsive or premeditated. Impulsive aggression is defined as a hair-trigger aggressive response to provocation with loss of behavioral control. Premeditated aggression is defined as a planned or conscious aggressive act, not spontaneous or related to an agitated state. The present study outlines the development of a clinically useful self-report instrument, the Impulsive/Premeditated Aggression Scales (IPAS), designed to characterize aggressive behavior as predominately impulsive or predominately premeditated in nature. The IPAS showed strong reliability and validity. Analysis of the IPASscores demonstrated thepresence of two types of aggressive behavior, impulsive and premeditated, in men referred for anger problems. The aggression of most individuals in the present sample was characterized as predominately impulsive in nature (90%).     

Fostering understanding of multimedia messages through pre-training: evidence for a two-stage theory of mental model construction

Students received a narrated animation explaining the workings of a car's braking system (Experiments 1 and 2) or a bicycle tire pump (Experiment 3) and then took retention and transfer tests. Some students received pre-training concerning each of the components in the system before receiving the narrated animation (pre-training group), whereas others received no pre-training (no pre-training group) or--only in Experiment 3--training after the narrated animation (post-training group). The pre-training described or depicted the possible states of each part. Students in the pre-training group performed better than did students in other groups on tests of transfer (in all 3 experiments) and retention (in Experiments 1 and 2). Results are consistent with a 2-stage theory of mental model construction.     

Word frequency in fast priming: Evidence for immediate cognitive control of eye movements during reading

Numerous studies have demonstrated effects of word frequency on eye movements during reading, but the precise timing of this influence has remained unclear. The fast priming paradigm was previously used to study influences of related versus unrelated primes on the target word. Here, we use this procedure to investigate whether the frequency of the prime word has a direct influence on eye movements during reading when the prime–target relation is not manipulated. We found that with average prime intervals of 32 ms readers made longer single fixation durations on the target word in the low than in the high frequency prime condition. Distributional analyses demonstrated that the effect of prime frequency on single fixation durations occurred very early, supporting theories of immediate cognitive control of eye movements. Finding prime frequency effects only 207 ms after visibility of the prime and for prime durations of 32 ms yields new time constraints for cognitive processes controlling eye movements during reading. Our variant of the fast priming paradigm provides a new approach to test early influences of word processing on eye movement control during reading.     

Physics and the Human Face of Causation

Many contemporary philosophers of physics (and philosophers of science more generally) follow Bertrand Russell in arguing that there is no room for causal notions in physics. Causation, as James Woodward has put it, has a ‘human face’, which makes causal notions sit ill with fundamental theories of physics. In this paper I examine a range of anti-causal arguments and show that the human face of causation is the face of scientific representations much more generally. Physics, like other sciences, is deeply permeated with causal reasoning.     

The Road to Creative Achievement: A Latent Variable Model of Ability and Personality Predictors

This study investigated the significance of different well‐established psychometric indicators of creativity for real‐life creative outcomes. Specifically, we tested the effects of creative potential, intelligence, and openness to experiences on everyday creative activities and actual creative achievement. Using a heterogeneous sample of 297 adults, we performed latent multiple regression analyses by means of structural equation modelling. We found openness to experiences and two independent indicators of creative potential, ideational originality and ideational fluency, to predict everyday creative activities. Creative activities, in turn, predicted actual creative achievement. Intelligence was found to predict creative achievement, but not creative activities. Moreover, intelligence moderated the effect of creative activities on creative achievement, suggesting that intelligence may play an important role in transforming creative activities into publically acknowledged creative achievements. This study supports the view of creativity as a multifaceted construct and provides an integrative model illustrating the potential interplay between its different facets. © 2013 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology.     

Investigating the Affective Signature of Forgivingness across the Adult Years

Though dispositional forgiveness has been associated with affective well-being, it remains unclear whether these associations are consistent throughout adulthood. The current study investigated whether forgivingness interacted with chronological age or future time perspective to predict affect at the trait and daily level. Participants (n = 332, mean age: 45.5 years) completed baseline measures of forgivingness, positive and negative affect, and future time perspective, along with daily assessments of positive and negative affect for up to ten days. Results suggest that the associations between forgivingness and affective well-being differ somewhat based on age and future time perspective, and level of analysis.