True Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: Evidence Based on a New Measure of Miscalibration

Overconfidence is often regarded as one of the most prevalent judgment biases. Several studies show that overconfidence can lead to suboptimal decisions of investors, managers, or politicians. Recent research, however, questions whether overconfidence should be regarded as a bias and shows that standard “overconfidence” findings can easily be explained by different degrees of knowledge of agents plus a random error in predictions. We contribute to the current literature and ongoing research by extensively analyzing interval estimates for knowledge questions, for real financial time series, and for artificially generated charts. We thereby suggest a new method to measure overconfidence in interval estimates, which is based on the implied probability mass behind a stated prediction interval. We document overconfidence patterns, which are difficult to reconcile with rationality of agents and which cannot be explained by differences in knowledge as differences in knowledge do not exist in our task. Furthermore, we show that overconfidence measures are reliable in the sense that there exist stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence in interval estimates, thereby testing an important assumption of behavioral economics and behavioral finance models: stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence across people. We do this in a “field experiment,” for different levels of expertise of subjects (students on the one hand and professional traders and investment bankers on the other hand), over time, by using different miscalibration metrics, and for tasks that avoid common weaknesses such as a non‐representative selection of trick questions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How Much Distress Is Too Much on Deployed Operations? Validation of the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10) for Application in Military Operational Settings

The aim of this study was threefold: (a) to assess the factor structure of the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10) to determine whether interpreting the scale as a single dimensional measure of psychological distress is justified in military operational setting; (b) to validate the K10 for mental health surveillance in operational settings against self-reported occupational impairment; (c) to evaluate whether the K10 has better discriminatory power than de facto standards for mental health surveillance on deployment, namely the Patient Health Questionnaire and the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist, Civilian version. A convenience sample of Canadian Armed Forces personnel serving in Afghanistan (N = 1,264) completed self-report measures of psychological distress and occupational impairment. On examination of 6 competing models, the authors determined that interpreting the K10 as a measure of unspecified psychological distress is justified. Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, they identified new cutoff values for dichotomous and polychotomous scoring methods. After comparing the area beneath the ROC curves for each of the 3 mental health surveillance questionnaires, the authors determined that all measures perform well as predictors of self-rated occupational impairment, with values ranging from .86 to .90. These results highlight the importance of cross-setting validation and demonstrate that validating psychological screening questionnaires against self-report measures of occupational impairment can be a useful strategy for understanding the manifestation of psychological distress on deployed military operations.     

Effects of Hardiness and Years of Military Service on Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms in U.S. Army Medics

We examined the effects of hardiness on symptoms of posttraumatic stress (PTS) in postdeployed U.S. Army medics (N = 322). Medics endure a high level of work-related stress on and off the battlefield. Hardiness correlated negatively with reports of PTS symptoms and moderated the cumulative effects of years of military service on PTS symptoms. After controlling for socially desirable responding, PTS symptoms increased with years of military service for those with low levels of hardiness and decreased with years of military service for those with very high levels of hardiness. The military’s current resiliency training programs would likely benefit from incorporating hardiness measures and principles into its curriculum.     

Mental Health Services Use Intentions Among Canadian Military Recruits

Identifying the factors associated with mental health services use (MHSU) is an important step in developing strategies to improve services access and delivery. The aims of the present study were to (a) identify personality and individual difference characteristics associated with MHSU intentions within the framework of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and (b) explore complex relationships that might exist between these characteristics and determinants of MHSU intentions identified in TPB, including attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. Data for 244 Canadian Armed Forces recruits who completed a MHSU questionnaire following mental health training were linked to personality data collected earlier. Multivariate analyses showed that the relationship between agreeableness and MHSU intentions was mediated by instrumental attitudes and subjective norms. The relationship between hardiness and MHSU intentions was mediated by subjective norms and self-efficacy. Findings suggest it may be worthwhile to consider mental health education initiatives to improve MHSU.     

Initial Validation of the U.S. Army Global Assessment Tool

The U.S. Army developed the Global Assessment Tool (GAT) to monitor psychosocial fitness and well-being among soldiers and provide a means to objectively gauge the success of newly implemented resilience training programs. Despite its widespread use (taken over 5.2 million times) and stated utility for program evaluation, there is relatively little published evidence regarding the GAT’s reliability and validity. We used exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) with 4 random samples of soldiers (n = 10,000 each) to examine the factorial validity and reliability of the GAT. An 11-factor solution (Self-Management, Positive Affect, Meaning, Work Engagement, Organizational Trust, Loneliness, Negative Cognitions, Hostility, Negative Emotions, Depressive Symptoms, and Emotion-Focused Coping), with 4 additional factors assessing character strengths (Intellect, Warmth, Civic Strengths, and Temperance), fit well and replicated in a second random sample. A higher order, 2-factor model using composites scores and positing positive and negative psychosocial competencies also fit well. Tests of measurement invariance using a third random sample reinforced consistent measurement properties across gender, age, and rank, with the exception of character strengths, which produced different factor structures for males and females. Further validity tests using a fourth random sample underscored a modicum of divergence among the resilience factors and convergence among the character strengths factors. We conclude with recommendations for enhancing and refining the GAT and discuss the GAT’s utility as a reliable, multidimensional psychosocial assessment that can be used to evaluate the efficacy of military resilience training programs.     

Processing of musical structure by high-functioning adolescents with autism spectrum disorders

Enhanced pitch perception and memory have been cited as evidence of a local processing bias in autism spectrum disorders (ASD). This bias is argued to account for enhanced perceptual functioning (Mottron &; Burack, 2001 Mottron, L. and Burack, J. A. 2001. “Enhanced perceptual functioning in the development of autism”. In The development of autism: Perspectives from theory to research, Edited by: Burack, J. A., Charman, T., Yirmiya, N. and Zelazo, P. R. 131–147. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.  [Google Scholar]; Mottron, Dawson, Soulières, Hubert, &; Burack, 2006 Mottron, L., Dawson, M., Soulières, I., Hubert, B. and Burack, J. 2006. Enhanced perceptual functioning in autism: An update, and eight principles of autistic perception. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 36(1): 27–43. doi:10.1007/s10803-005-0040-7[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and central coherence theories of ASD (Frith, 1989 Frith, U. 1989. Autism: Explaining the enigma, Oxford: United Kingdom: Blackwell.  [Google Scholar]; Happé &; Frith, 2006 Happé, F. and Frith, U. 2006. The weak coherence account: Detail-focused cognitive style in autism spectrum disorders. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 36(1): 5–25. doi:10.1007/s10803-005-0039-0[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). A local processing bias confers a different cognitive style to individuals with ASD (Happé, 1999 Happé, F. 1999. Autism: Cognitive deficit or cognitive style?. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 3(6): 216–222. doi:10.1016/S1364-6613(99)01318-2[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which accounts in part for their good visuospatial and visuoconstructive skills. Here, we present analogues in the auditory domain, audiotemporal or audioconstructive processing, which we assess using a novel experimental task: a musical puzzle. This task evaluates the ability of individuals with ASD to process temporal sequences of musical events as well as various elements of musical structure and thus indexes their ability to employ a global processing style. Musical structures created and replicated by children and adolescents with ASD (10–19 years old) and typically developing children and adolescents (7–17 years old) were found to be similar in global coherence. Presenting a musical template for reference increased accuracy equally for both groups, with performance associated to performance IQ and short-term auditory memory. The overall pattern of performance was similar for both groups; some puzzles were easier than others and this was the case for both groups. Task performance was further found to be correlated with the ability to perceive musical emotions, more so for typically developing participants. Findings are discussed in light of the empathizing-systemizing theory of ASD (Baron-Cohen, 2009 Baron-Cohen, S. 2009. Autism: The Empathizing-Systemizing (E-S) Theory. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1156: 68–80. doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.04467.x[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the importance of describing the strengths of individuals with ASD (Happé, 1999 Happé, F. 1999. Autism: Cognitive deficit or cognitive style?. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 3(6): 216–222. doi:10.1016/S1364-6613(99)01318-2[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Heaton, 2009 Heaton, P. 2009. Assessing musical skills in autistic children who are not savants. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Biological Sciences, 364: 1443–1447. doi:10.1098/rstb.2008.0327[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).     

Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Structural Equation Models With Multiple Interaction and Quadratic Effects

In this article, a nonlinear structural equation model is introduced and a quasi-maximum likelihood method for simultaneous estimation and testing of multiple nonlinear effects is developed. The focus of the new methodology lies on efficiency, robustness, and computational practicability. Monte-Carlo studies indicate that the method is highly efficient and that the likelihood ratio test of nonlinear effects is robust and outperforms alternative testing procedures. The new method is applied to empirical data of middle-aged men, where a latent interaction between physical fitness and flexibility in goal adjustment on complaint level is hypothesized. A model with 5 simultaneous nonlinear effects is analyzed, and the hypothesized interaction is quantified and tested positively against an additive model with quadratic and linear effects.     

The evil of death and the Lucretian symmetry: a reply to Feldman

In previous work we have defended the deprivation account of death’s badness against worries stemming from the Lucretian point that prenatal and posthumous nonexistence are deprivations of the same sort. In a recent article in this journal, Fred Feldman has offered an insightful critique of our Parfitian strategy for defending the deprivation account of death’s badness. Here we adjust, clarify, and defend our strategy for reply to Lucretian worries on behalf of the deprivation account.     

Internet‐based CBT intervention for gamblers in Finland: Experiences from the field

From September 2007 to May 2011 a total of 471 participants (325 males and 146 females) signed up for an 8‐week Internet‐based cognitive behavioral therapy offered for gamblers in Finland. Sixty‐four percent of the participants were pathological gamblers (PGs) (NODS 5> points), 14% were problem gamblers (NODS 3–4 points) and 10% were at risk of gambling problems (NODS 1–2 points). Two hundred and twenty four participants completed the treatment and after the treatment period significant changes were found in the following variables: gambling related problems (NODS), gambling urge, impaired control of gambling, alcohol consumption (AUDIT‐C), social consequences, gambling‐related cognitive erroneous thoughts and depression (MARD‐S). In this sample co‐morbid alcohol consumption was stronger among males. The main finding of this study was that the onset age of gambling was associated with a greater amount of gambling‐related cognitive erroneous thoughts.