CULTURAL VARIATION IN PROBABILISTIC THINKING: ALTERNATIVE WAYS OF DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY*

This study reviews research on cultural differences in “probabilistic thinking” and presents some intra- and inter-cultural findings. Strong differences are shown to exist between people raised under Asian and British cultures on measures of this ability. These differences were found to out-weigh any influence of subculture, religion, occupation, arts/science orientation and sex. Generally, Asians were found to adopt a less finely differentiated view of uncertainty both numerically and verbally than did the British sample. Numerical probabilities assessed by the Asians were more extreme and less realistic than those assessed by the British sample. Possible antecedents of these differences are outlined, and cultural differences in probabilistic thinking are shown to be compatible with decriptions of cultural differences in business decision making. It is argued that there are qualitative cultural differences in ways of dealing with uncertainty.     

The effects of a response cost treatment tactic on hyperactive children

In a pilot study, a multielement design was used to assess the effectiveness of a response cost procedure on a 7-year-old child's hyperactive behavior and academic performance across days. The procedure was effective in reducing off-task behavior and in increasing academic assignment completion. In Experiment 2, three strategies were compared to a no-treatment baseline in treating an 8-year-old hyperactive child: drug (Ritalin) alone, response cost alone, and drug plus response cost. The cost program alone and the cost program combined with medication were effective in reducing off-task behavior and in increasing academic performance. In both studies, the procedure was viewed by the teachers as practical and effective for use in a classroom setting. The subjects liked the cost system and believed that they completed more academic work when it was operative.     

Robust estimation of ability in the Rasch model

Estimating ability parameters in latent trait models in general, and in the Rasch model in particular is almost always hampered by noise in the data. This noise can be caused by guessing, inattention to easy questions, and other factors which are unrelated to ability. In this study several alternative formulations which attempt to deal with these problems without a reparameterization are tested through a Monte Carlo simulation. It was found that although no one of the tested schemes is uniformly superior to all others, a modified jackknife stood out as the best one in general, it was also super efficient (more efficient than the asymptotically optimal estimator) for tests with forty or fewer items. It is proposed that this sort of jackknifing scheme for estimating ability be considered for practical work.This research was funded through a grant from the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration (78-NI-AX-0047) to the Bureau of Social Science Research, Howard Wainer, Principal Investigator. We would like to thank Ronald Mead, Anne Morgan and James Ramsay for kind, generous, and invaluable help at various stages of the project.     

Will both spouses have careers?: Predictors of preferred traditional or egalitarian marriages among university students

This study examined the significance of work preference variables, family preference variables, socialization influences, and needs for achievement and affiliation in predicting preferred traditional versus egalitarian marriages among university students. Results showed that, overall, male university students preferred traditional marriages while female university students preferred egalitarian marriages. Sex also interacted significantly with the following variables: desired family task involvement, desired job task involvement, and mother's family involvement. The data suggest that a perspective encompassing a wide variety of variables (including work, family, and socialization considerations) may be useful for conceptualizing individuals' preferences for traditional or egalitarian marriages. Implications of the results for management and career counseling are discussed.     

Children's detection and awareness of textual anomaly

Children of 8 and 11 years were assessed in two experiments for their sensitivity to textual anomaly. In Experiment 1, subjects read stories containing two target lines, one appropriate and the other anomalous in relation to previously given information. Both age groups read the anomalous line more slowly than the appropriate line, but in a subsequent test of comprehension monitoring, the older group was more likely than the younger group to pick out the anomalous line as not fitting in with the rest of the story. Experiment 2 produced similar results: both 8- and 11-year-old children read an anomalous line more slowly, but 11-year-olds were more likely than 8-year-olds to cite the anomalous line or part of it when questioned about the possible presence of a line that did not fit in with the rest of the story. The results indicate that an age change in comprehension monitoring as indexed by citation or selection of a textual anomaly need not be contingent upon a parallel age change in constructive processing as indexed by modulation of reading rate.     

Two subjective scales of number

The way in which the apparent magnitude of numbers grows with their absolute magnitude was measured with a modified version of the direct technique Marks and Slawson (1966) used to determine the psychophysical exponent for loudness. This modified technique required subjects to estimate how evenly and randomly a sequence of integers appeared to sample the numerical continuum. The results indicate that the apparent magnitude of numbers increases with a decelerated power function of their arithmetic magnitude when a series samples from an open-ended range. However, when an upper boundary of the range is specified, the subjective scale seems to be linear. Random productions of numbers parallel the results found with judgments of presented sequences. The two scales of number provide the basis for an interpretation of the difference between magnitude and category scales: that subjects use numbers differently when the response scale is open-ended Imagnitude estimation than when it has a fixed upper limit tcategory scale. Given the assumption that subjects use numbers in this way in the two tasks, the qualitative relation between magnitude and category scales is predicted.     

Environmental control and the perception of control

The perception of control may be established if an individual is provided with an opportunity to choose and if the outcome of the choice is moderately uncertain. In turn, perceived control has been shown to enhance motivation and performance. In the present experiment, the effects of uncertainty about environmental control were examined by measuring the speed with which choices were made. When control was implicitly provided, decision latencies were shorter than when control was either explicitly available or not available at all. Paradoxically, providing information about control may reduce uncertainty and thereby diminish the perception of control. The contribution of control and choice to the development of perceived control is discussed.This research is based on a thesis by the first author submitted in partial fulfillment of the master of science degree at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and was supported by a grant from the U.S. Army Research Office to the second author.     

Hemispheric asymmetries in faculty and student musicians and nonmusicians during melody recognition tasks

Current research has suggested that musical stimuli are processed in the right hemisphere except in musicians, in whom there is an increased involvement of the left hemisphere. The present study hypothesized that the more musical training persons receive, the more they will rely on an analytic/left-hemispheric processing strategy. The subjects were 10 faculty and 10 student musicians, and 10 faculty and 10 student nonmusicians. All subjects listened to a series of melodies (some recurring and some not) and excerpts (some actual and some not) in one ear and, after a rest, to a different series of melodies in the other ear. The task was to identify recurring vs. nonrecurring melodies and actual vs. nonactual excerpts. For student musicians, there was a right-ear/left-hemispheric advantage for melody recognition, while for student nonmusicians, the situation was the reverse. Neither faculty group showed any ear preference. There were no significant differences for excerpt recognition. Two possible explanations of the faculty performance were discussed in terms of physical maturation and a functionally more integrated hemispheric approach to the task.