Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Counseling in the Philippines: Past,Present, and Future

The history of colonization and persistent attempts at self‐governance in the Philippines parallel the beginnings of counseling in the country, which were largely influenced by the United States. Because of the Guidance and Counseling Act of 2004 and the Psychology Act of 2009, counseling is on its way to professionalization and regulation. Counseling is growing in depth and credibility, as evidenced by applications in practice that are not only indigenous but powerfully relevant.     

The reciprocal relationship between psychological contract fulfilment and employee performance and the moderating role of perceived organizational support and tenure

This study investigated the reciprocal relationship between perceptions of psychological contract fulfilment and employee performance (sales made and sales targets), and whether this was moderated by the quality and length of the social exchange relationship captured, respectively, through perceived organizational support (POS) and organizational tenure. We used a sample of 146 sales advisors and a four‐point longitudinal design and found support for reciprocal links where performance predicted subsequent psychological contract fulfilment and vice versa. The strength of the relationship between performance and psychological contract fulfilment increased over time. The quality of the social exchange relationship (i.e., POS) moderated reciprocal links between sales made and sales targets met and perceptions of psychological contract fulfilment at earlier, but not later, time points. One way to interpret the findings is the changing nature of the unfolding relationship between support, psychological contract fulfilment, and performance, where a supportive relationship buffers failing to deliver at earlier time points, but at later time points employee performance and psychological contract fulfilment associate more strongly as both parties prioritize delivery.     

Young Indigenous Australians' Sexually Transmitted Infection Prevention Practices: A Community‐based Participatory Research Project

National surveillance data indicate marked differences between Indigenous and other Australians in the prevalence of many sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Young Indigenous people bear a particularly high burden of these infections. A collaboration of university researchers, Indigenous health workers and young Indigenous people conducted 45 field interviews to examine how young Indigenous Australians keep themselves healthy and protected against STIs. Our findings emphasise the complexity of health behaviours, where individuals are rarely always ‘risky’ or always ‘safe’, as well as subtle gender differences in health practices. Preventive strategies employed by the young people were contingent on beliefs and knowledge about sexual partners, the type of relationship, the context of the sexual encounter and access to condoms. Tangible strengths such as young Indigenous people's commitments to condoms and STI screening should be celebrated and bolstered to enhance their ability to protect themselves against adverse health outcomes and enhance their resilience against STIs. Focusing on strengths helps to counter the deficit model of health commonly deployed in Indigenous health research and draws attention to health issues facing young Indigenous people and their communities, without reinforcing negative stereotypes or focusing solely on individual risk behaviour. We provide concrete recommendations for health promotion and education. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time Course of Treatment Effect of OROS(R) Methylphenidate in Children With ADHD

Objective: The authors evaluated the time course of the treatment effect of Osmotic-Release Oral System methylphenidate (OROS(?) MPH) HCl (Concerta(?), Raritan, NJ) CII in children with ADHD. Method: Data were combined from two double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, cross-over, analog classroom studies in children (9-12 years) with ADHD. Participants received an individualized dose of placebo or OROS(?) MPH on two laboratory school days. Permanent Product Math Test and Swanson, Kotkin, Agler, M-Flynn, and Pelham scores were evaluated 0.5 hr before dosing and 1, 2, 4, 10, 11, and 12.5 hr post dose. Analysis used a repeated-measures mixed model. Results: Treatment effects were present at all postdose assessment points (p < .0001 for all comparisons, n = 139). Adverse events were similar to previous reports for OROS(?) MPH. Conclusion: A robust treatment effect occurred with OROS(?) MPH; onset was at 1 hr and persisted for at least 12.5 hr after dosing.     

Routine housework and tripartite marital commitment

This study assumes that performing household labor is a method of maintaining the marital relationship and investigates whether higher marital commitment (personal, moral, and structural) is associated with more time spent on housework. Data taken from the second wave of the National Survey of Families and Households on 3,428 paired spouses in the United States were used to test research hypotheses. Results indicate that (a) husbands with higher moral commitment, or those married to a wife with lower moral commitment, do more routine housework, and (b) husbands with stronger personal commitment do less routine housework and their wives do more. The interplay of gender ideology and marital commitment as they pertain to housework performance for each gender is discussed.