Can probability theory explain why closure is both intuitive and prone to counterexamples?

Epistemic closure under known implication is the principle that knowledge of \(\varphi\) and knowledge of \(\varphi \rightarrow \psi\), together, imply knowledge of \(\psi\). This principle is intuitive, yet several putative counterexamples have been formulated against it. This paper addresses the question, why is epistemic closure both intuitive and prone to counterexamples? In particular, the paper examines whether probability theory can offer an answer to this question based on four strategies. The first probability-based strategy rests on the accumulation of risks. The problem with this strategy is that risk accumulation cannot accommodate certain counterexamples to epistemic closure. The second strategy is based on the idea of evidential support, that is, a piece of evidence supports a proposition whenever it increases the probability of the proposition. This strategy makes progress and can accommodate certain putative counterexamples to closure. However, this strategy also gives rise to a number of counterintuitive results. Finally, there are two broadly probabilistic strategies, one based on the idea of resilient probability and the other on the idea of assumptions that are taken for granted. These strategies are promising but are prone to some of the shortcomings of the second strategy. All in all, I conclude that each strategy fails. Probability theory, then, is unlikely to offer the account we need.     

The role of observer strategy in the single-target AB paradigm

Identification of the second of two targets (T1, T2) inserted in a stream of distractors is impaired when presented 200–500 ms after the first (attentional blink, AB). An AB-like effect has been reported by Nieuwenstein, Potter, and Theeuwes, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 35, 159-169, (2009, Experiment 2), with a distractor stream that contained only one target and a gap just before the target. Nieuwenstein et al. hypothesized that the gap enhanced the salience of the last distractor, causing it to be processed much like T1 in conventional AB studies. This hypothesis can also account for Lag-1 sparing (enhanced target performance when presented directly after the last distractor, without an intervening gap). We propose an alternative account of the Lag-1 sparing in the single-target paradigm based on observer strategy, and test it by presenting the single-target and dual-target conditions to separate groups (Experiment 2) instead of mixed across trials (Experiment 1 and Nieuwenstein et al.'s study). The single-target condition exhibited Lag-1 sparing when it was mixed with the dual-target condition, but Lag-1 deficit when it was done in isolation. This outcome is consistent with an observer-strategy account but not with an enhanced salience account of the Lag-1 sparing effect in the single-target condition.     

Evaluating risk propensity using an objective instrument

Risk propensity is the stable tendency to choose options with a lower probability of success, but greater rewards. Its evaluation has been approached from various perspectives: from self-report questionnaires to objective tests. Self-report questionnaires have often been criticized due to interference from voluntary and involuntary biases, in addition to their lack of predictive value. Objective tests, on the other hand, require resources that make them difficult to administer to large samples. This paper presents an easy-to-administer, 30-item risk propensity test. Each item is itself an objective test describing a hypothetical situation in which the subject must choose between three options, each with a different gain function but equivalent in expected value. To assess its psychometric fit, the questionnaire was administered to 222 subjects, and we performed a test of its reliability as well as exploratory factor analysis. The results supported a three-factor model of risk (Sports and Gambling, Long-term Plans, and Loss Management). After making the necessary adjustments and incorporating a global factor of risk propensity, confirmatory factor analysis was done, revealing that the data exhibited adequate goodness of fit.     

The effects of valence and arousal on the emotional modulation of time perception: evidence for multiple stages of processing

Previous research has demonstrated that both emotional valence and arousal can influence the subjective experience of time. The current research extends this work by (1) identifying how quickly this emotional modulation of time perception can occur and (2) examining whether valence and arousal have different effects at different stages of perception. These questions were addressed using a temporal bisection task. In each block of this task, participants are trained to distinguish between two different exposure durations. Participants are then shown stimuli presented at a number of durations that fall between the two learned times, and are asked to indicate whether the test stimulus was closer in duration to the shorter or longer learned item. In the current study, participants completed blocks of trials in which the durations were "Short" (100-300 ms) or "Long" (400-1600 ms). Stimuli consisted of neutral photographs as well as four categories of emotional images: high-arousal negative, high-arousal positive, low-arousal negative, and low-arousal positive. In Short blocks, arousing and nonarousing negative images were judged to have been shown for shorter durations than they actually were (i.e., the duration was underestimated); this effect occurred at durations as brief as 133 ms. In Long blocks, the display time for highly arousing negative items was overestimated, whereas durations were underestimated for highly arousing positive items and less arousing negative items. These data suggest that arousal and valence have different effects at different stages of perception, possibly due to the different neural structures involved at each stage of the emotional modulation of time perception.     

人类社会认知的神经机制:来自社会脑研究的证据

社会认知是指从环境互动的过程中推测他人意图、情感和思想等内部状态的心理加工过程。社会脑假说认为,包括人类在内的灵长类大脑内肯定存在着一个旨在认识和理解他人表情的神经机制,在社会交往中通过该中枢迅速处理与他人相互作用的各种信息。本文通过回顾社会脑的构成与基本功能,镜像神经元的发现及功能,以及社会脑、镜像神经元对社会认知影响的相关研究,提出了人类社会认知不同于其他物种的三个主要区别。     

Put yourself in my wheelchair: Perspective-taking can reduce prejudice toward people with disabilities and other stigmatized groups

This study aimed to compare perspective-taking with a hypothetical target and perspective-taking occurring during a real interaction with an outgroup member in reducing prejudice toward people with disabilities and other groups (e.g., immigrants, homosexual people), via increased empathy. We adopted an experimental design with two treatment groups (Hypothetical target vs. Real target) and one control group (no intervention), one pretest and two posttest measures. Participants, who were 437 students aged 11–17 years (M = 14.28; SD = 1.17), were randomly assigned to the various conditions on a classroom basis. Perspective-taking was facilitated asking participants to travel in a wheelchair on a path that simulated a real pavement in the presence (or not) of an individual with a motor disability. Findings showed that perspective-taking in the presence of a real target was more effective in reducing prejudice toward people with disabilities than perspective-taking task without encountering an outgroup member. Perspective-taking with a hypothetical target was not sufficient to increase participants' empathy toward people with disabilities, which instead was enhanced when the task was performed at the presence of a real member of that group. Positive effects produced by perspective-taking (with both a hypothetical and a real target) were transferred to immigrants and homosexuals. These findings suggest that, when possible, perspective-taking in the presence of the target, which can improve empathy by favoring a two-way exchange process, is highly recommended to improve attitudes toward different stigmatized groups, not necessarily targeted by the intervention.     

The impact of prestimulus EEG frequency on auditory evoked potentials during sleep onset.

Auditory evoked potentials were recorded during wakefulness, Stage 1, and Stage 2 non-REM sleep using a three-tone auditory oddball paradigm. Stage 1 sleep was divided into trials preceded by alpha and those preceded by theta. A negative wave peaking at about 100 ms, N1, displayed a significant decrease in amplitude with the onset of Stage 2 sleep. A later N2 peaked at about 250 ms in the waking state. This changed into a sleep-specific negative wave peaking at 300 ms (N300) at the alpha-theta transition within Stage 1. The P300 displayed a similar shift to become a P450 in Stage 2 sleep. N550 was specific to Stage 2, and was larger in response to rare, rather than frequent stimuli. There was no evidence of any enhancement to relevant rare stimuli compared with irrelevant rare stimuli.     

Transition to Adulthood Across Italy: A Comparison Between Northern and Southern Italian Young Adults

We explored the phenomenon of the transition to adulthood, focusing on how young people cope with various developmental tasks in relation to their expectations, future projects, fears and indecision in two Italian regional areas characterized by different trends in youth employability, higher educational attainment and family formation process. We measured self-perceived adulthood, self-reported satisfaction, independence, perceived support regarding personal relationships and practical and economical issues, personal projections and future life’s choices. We also explored the perception of self-fulfillment for the future concerning personal goals in life, such as in the spheres of work, studies and economic autonomy together with expectations for the quality of personal relationships. One hundred and sixty nonworking university students (M _age = 22.6; SD = 2.77; range = 19–35) from the Universities of Turin and Palermo took part in this study. Sub-groups differed on self-perceived adulthood, self-reported satisfaction, independence, perceived support and self-fulfillment. Psychological and economic independence from the family of origin was most perceived by the participants from Turin who reported a higher degree of satisfaction regarding their choice of studies and their future perspective of self-fulfillment at work. Young people from Palermo highlighted personal relationships as an important source of perceived support.     

Emotion Comprehension: The Impact of Nonverbal Intelligence

A substantial body of research has established that emotion understanding develops throughout early childhood and has identified three hierarchical developmental phases: external, mental, and reflexive. The authors analyzed nonverbal intelligence and its effect on children's improvement of emotion understanding and hypothesized that cognitive level is a consistent predictor of emotion comprehension. In all, 366 children (182 girls, 184 boys) between the ages of 3 and 10 years were tested using the Test of Emotion Comprehension and the Coloured Progressive Matrices. The data obtained by using the path analysis model revealed that nonverbal intelligence was statistically associated with the ability to recognize emotions in the 3 developmental phases. The use of this model showed the significant effect that cognitive aspect plays on the reflexive phase. The authors aim to contribute to the debate about the influence of cognitive factors on emotion understanding.     

Differences in reported symptom profile between panic disorder and other DSM-III-R anxiety disorders.

Previous research has indicated that reports of panic attacks are associated with a different set of symptoms to reports of generalized anxiety. The present two studies attempted to extend these findings to specific (situational) fears. In Study 1, 55 subjects with panic disorder were compared on their symptom profile during their panic attacks to 65 subjects with other anxiety disorders [simple phobia, social phobia and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD)] during response to their feared cue. The results indicated that, compared to subjects with other anxiety disorders, subjects with panic disorder were more likely to report parasthesias, dizziness, faintness, unreality, dyspnea, fear of dying and fear of going crazy/losing control. In Study 2, 90 subjects meeting diagnostic criteria for both panic disorder and another anxiety disorder (simple phobia, social phobia or OCD) were compared on the symptoms experienced during their unexpected panic attacks and their situationally-triggered fears respectively. Combining the symptoms found in Study 1 to differ between the groups into a linear combination, there was a significant interaction found between the type of fear reaction (panic attack vs cued fear response) and symptom group. Taken together, these findings suggest that reports of unexpected panic attacks associated with panic disorder are characterized by a different symptom profile to reports of specific fear reactions that are part of a phobic disorder or OCD.