"I couldn't have seen it coming": the impact of negative self-relevant outcomes on retrospections about foreseeability

We examined a phenomenon related to hindsight bias, specifically, retrospective judgements about the foreseeability of an outcome. We predicted that negative, self-relevant outcomes would be judged as less foreseeable by the recipient of the outcome than by others, unlike either positive outcomes or outcomes that are not self-relevant. In the context of a "stock market decision-making game", the hypothetical stock selected by one of two players showed an extreme increase or decrease. As predicted, the player who received an extreme negative outcome reported that this outcome was less foreseeable than did the opponent and an observer, for whom the outcome was less self-relevant. For no other kind of outcome was there a difference between the recipient of an outcome, the opponent, and the observer. The findings have several implications, including the possibility that hindsight bias should be considered as a special case of retrospective foreseeability.     

The Aftercare and School Observation System (ASOS): Reliability and Component Structure

This study examines the psychometric properties and component structure of a newly developed observational system, the Aftercare and School Observation System (ASOS). Participants included 468 children drawn from a larger longitudinal intervention study. The system was utilized to assess participant children in school lunchrooms and recess and various afterschool environments. Exploratory factor analyses examined whether a core set of component constructs assessing qualities of children’s relationships, caregiver involvement and monitoring, and experiences in school and aftercare contexts that have been linked to children’s behavior problems would emerge. Construct validity was assessed by examining associations between ASOS constructs and questionnaire measures assessing children’s behavior problems and relationship qualities in school and aftercare settings. Across both settings, two factors showed very similar empirical structures and item loadings, reflecting the constructs of a negative/aggressive context and caregiver positive involvement, with one additional unique factor from the school setting reflecting the extent to which caregiver methods used resulted in less negative behavior and two additional unique factors from the aftercare setting reflecting positivity in the child’s interactions and general environment and negativity in the child’s interactions and setting. Modest correlations between ASOS factors and aftercare provider and teacher ratings of behavior problems, adult-child relationships, and a rating of school climate contributed to our interpretation that the ASOS scores capture meaningful features of children’s experiences in these settings. This study represents the first step of establishing that the ASOS reliably and validly captures risk and protective relationships and experiences in extra-familial settings.     

Emergence and Human Conduct

Emergence, the occurrence of novel, unpredictable human behavior, is an inherent aspect of human experience on both the individual and collective levels. In this article, we considered the ubiquitous nature emergent events, indicated some of the ways such events manifest themselves, analyzed the personal and inter-personal processes that give rise to them, and suggested some of their implications for psychology and the other social science. Given the inescapable presence of emergence in human conduct, a redefinition of the goals and scope of social science may be desirable.     

The trajectory of the target probability effect

The effect of target probability on detection times is well-established: Even when detection accuracy is high, lower probability targets are detected more slowly than higher probability ones. Although this target probability effect on detection times has been well-studied, one aspect of it has remained largely unexamined: How the effect develops over the span of an experiment. Here, we investigated this issue with two detection experiments that assessed different target probability ratios. Conventional block segment analysis and linear mixed-effects modeling converged on two key findings. First, we found that the magnitude of the target probability effect increases as one progresses through a block of trials. Second, we found, by examining the trajectories of the low- and high-probability targets, that this increase in effect magnitude was driven by the low-probability targets. Specifically, we found that low-probability targets were detected more slowly as a block of trials progressed. Performance to high-probability targets, on the other hand, was largely invariant across the block. The latter finding is of particular interest because it cannot be reconciled with accounts that propose that the target probability effect is driven by the high-probability targets.     

FOIL Axiomatized

In an earlier paper, [5], I gave semantics and tableau rules for a simple firstorder intensional logic called FOIL, in which both objects and intensions are explicitly present and can be quantified over. Intensions, being non-rigid, are represented in FOIL as (partial) functions from states to objects. Scoping machinery, predicate abstraction, is present to disambiguate sentences like that asserting the necessary identity of the morning and the evening star, which is true in one sense and not true in another.In this paper I address the problem of axiomatizing FOIL. I begin with an interesting sublogic with predicate abstraction and equality but no quantifiers. In [2] this sublogic was shown to be undecidable if the underlying modal logic was at least K4, though it is decidable in other cases. The axiomatization given is shown to be complete for standard logics without a symmetry condition. The general situation is not known. After this an axiomatization for the full FOIL is given, which is straightforward after one makes a change in the point of view.This paper is a version of the invited talk given by the author at the conference Trends in Logic III, dedicated to the memory of A. MOSTOWSKI, H. RASIOWA and C. RAUSZER, and held in Warsaw and Ruciane-Nida from 23rd to 25th September 2005.     

The influence of belief that a car crashed on witnesses' estimates of civilian and police car speed

The authors performed 2 experiments investigating the influence of the belief that a vehicle crashed on witnesses' estimates of the vehicle's speed. In Experiment 1, participants saw a video of a civilian car being driven, after which they were assigned to 1 of 2 conditions. The 1st group was told that the vehicle subsequently crashed; the 2nd group was not told that the vehicle crashed. The results indicted no differences between the 2 groups on a number of factors, including estimates of the vehicle's speed. Experiment 2 was identical except that the video showed a police car using flashing lights and sirens. Participants who had been told that the car had crashed overestimated speed, the likelihood of a crash, and the likelihood of someone being killed. Participants who were not told that the vehicle crashed estimated the speed of the vehicle accurately. Confidence in their estimates of speed was not significantly different between the 2 groups. Results are discussed with regard to police investigations of road accidents.     

Observing neighborhood effects without neighbors

With a new metric called phonological Levenshtein distance (PLD20), the present study explores the effects of phonological similarity and word frequency on spoken word recognition, using polysyllabic words that have neither phonological nor orthographic neighbors, as defined by neighborhood density (the N-metric). Inhibitory effects of PLD20 were observed for these lexical hermits: Close-PLD20 words were recognized more slowly than distant PLD20 words, indicating lexical competition. Importantly, these inhibitory effects were found only for low- (not high-) frequency words, in line with previous findings that phonetically related primes inhibit recognition of low-frequency words. These results indicate that the properties of PLD20--a continuous measure of word-form similarity--make it a promising new metric for quantifying phonological distinctiveness in spoken word recognition research.     

A Psychoanalytic Moveable Feast

The author describes his development as a psychoanalyst. He describes the weaving of his formative experiences into a source of motivation in the pursuit of psychoanalysis as a vocation. He describes the gradual development of the ability to utilize the synergism of the evolution of his self-analysis, clinical experience, and psychoanalytic knowledge in the evolution of his work as a psychoanalyst.