A Dual-Process Discrete-Time Survival Analysis Model: Application to the Gateway Drug Hypothesis

The gateway drug model is a popular conceptualization of a progression most substance-users are hypothesized to follow as they try different legal and illegal drugs. Most forms of the gateway hypothesis are that "softer" drugs lead to "harder," illicit drugs. However, the gateway hypothesis has been notably difficult to directly test - i.e., to test as competing hypotheses in a single model that licit drug use might lead to illicit drug use or the reverse. This article presents a novel statistical technique, dual-process discrete-time survival analysis, which enables this comparison. This method uses mixture-modeling software to estimate two concurrent time-to-event processes and their effects on each other. Using this method, support for the gateway hypothesis in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 was weak. However, this paper was not designed as a strong test of causal direction but more as a technical demonstration, and suffered from certain technological limitations. Both these limitations and future directions are discussed.     

Modeling the Dynamics of Risky Choice

Individuals make decisions under uncertainty every day. Decisions are based on incomplete information concerning the potential outcome or the predicted likelihood with which events occur. In addition, individuals' choices often deviate from the rational or mathematically objective solution. Accordingly, the dynamics of human decision making are difficult to capture using conventional, linear mathematical models. Here, we present data from a 2-choice task with variable risk between sure loss and risky loss to illustrate how a simple nonlinear dynamical system can be employed to capture the dynamics of human decision making under uncertainty (i.e., multistability, bifurcations). We test the feasibility of this model quantitatively and demonstrate how the model can account for up to 86% of the observed choice behavior. The implications of using dynamical models for explaining the nonlinear complexities of human decision making are discussed as well as the degree to which the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems might offer an alternative framework for understanding human decision making processes.     

Chaotic attractors in the therapeutic system 1

Because little research had been done on the presence and role of latent communication in the context of team‐conducted family therapy, the writers set out to monitor unconscious responses generated under these conditions. Specifically, they investigated an ongoing family treatment situation conducted according to the “reflecting team model.” One team of therapists handles the actual treatment session, while the other observes from behind a one‐way mirror. During the course of a session, the second team makes suggestions to the treatment team either by telephone or by calling the therapists out of the treatment room.

As the project developed, the writers found that the unconscious responses of both family and treatment teams indicated a process at work beyond the conscious intentions of the participants. That is, the therapeutic enterprise was functioning as a dynamical system, whose increasing complexity suggested a self organizing principle at work. This paper traces the development of the system's movement toward greater complexity, identifies the specific interventions that indicate this process, describes how all participants demonstrated a high degree of resonance and synchronization with this overarching‐self organizing pattern. This paper serves to alert therapists to the role of unconscious communication within the therapeutic system and postulates that the generation of form within psychotherapy follows many of the same self organizing processes found in other human and non human systems.     

Turning Believers into Skeptics: 3-Year-Olds' Sensitivity to Cues to Speaker Credibility

Under most circumstances, children (and adults) can safely assume that the testimony they hear is true. In two studies, we investigated whether 3-year-olds (N = 100) would continue to hold this assumption even if the person who provided the testimony behaved in an uncertain, ignorant, and/or distracted manner. In Study 1, children were less likely to trust that, for example, a key-like object was a spoon if the speaker indicated uncertainty about her testimony (e.g., “I think this is a spoon”) than if she simply labeled the object ostensively (e.g., “This is a spoon”). In Study 2, 3-year-olds were also more skeptical about a speaker's testimony when she had earlier made an obvious naming error and seemed distracted, but not when she either made an error or seemed distracted. These results indicate that 3-year-olds can respond differently to the same testimony, depending on the speaker's behavior.     

High-lethality status in patients with borderline personality disorder

Recurrent suicidal behaviors in patients with Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) are often considered communicative gestures; however, 10% complete suicide. This study seeks to identify risk factors for suicide within a BPD sample by comparing patients with High- and Low-Lethality attempts. BPD attempters (n = 113) were assessed on demographic, diagnostic, and personality variables: clinical symptoms, suicidal behaviors; childhood, family, and treatment histories; social adjustment; and recent life events. Forty-four High-Lethality attempters, defined by a score of 4 or more on Beck's Medical Lethality Scale, were compared to 69 Low-Lethality attempters. Discriminating variables were entered in a multivariate logistic regression model to define predictors of High-Lethality status. High-Lethality attempters were older, with children, less education, and lower socioeconomic class (SES) than Low-Lethality attempters. They were more likely to have Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), co-morbid Antisocial Personality Disorder (ASPD), and family histories of substance abuse. They reported greater intent to die, more lifetime attempts, hospitalizations, and time in the hospital. High-Lethality status was best predicted by low SES, co-morbid ASPD, extensive treatment histories, and greater intent to die. These characteristics resemble profiles of patients who complete suicide, are not specific for BPD, and do not include impulsivity, aggression, or severity of BPD criteria.     

From the Couch to the Chair: Applying Psychoanalytic Theory and Practice in Counseling

In this article, the authors offer a contemporary perspective on psychoanalytic theory. The authors present a clinical vignette that illustrates how one analyst applied the principles of transference, countertransference, and resistance in a modern clinical setting. The authors describe how analysis is similar to and different from humanistic counseling and conclude by describing how analytic insights might be applied in the clinical practice of counselors.     

Alcohol-related problems and risk of suicide among college students: the mediating roles of belongingness and burdensomeness

The relationship among alcohol-related problems, perceived burdensomeness, thwarted belongingness, and suicide proneness in undergraduate college students (N=996) was examined. As hypothesized, alcohol-related problems, perceived burdensomeness, and thwarted belongingness were all significantly and positively correlated with suicide proneness. The relation between experiencing alcohol-related problems and suicide proneness was, in part, accounted for by perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness. Additionally, the mediation via perceived burdensomeness was significantly stronger than the mediation via thwarted belongingness. Results suggest that it would be advisable for clinicians to be aware of students' experiences with alcohol-related problems in conjunction with their levels of burdensomeness and belongingness when assessing for suicide risk.     

Teachers' self-efficacy beliefs as determinants of job satisfaction and students' academic achievement: A study at the school level

Teachers' self-efficacy beliefs were examined as determinants of their job satisfaction and students' academic achievement. Over 2000 teachers in 75 Italian junior high schools were administered self-report questionnaires to assess self-efficacy beliefs and their job satisfaction Students' average final grades at the end of junior high school were collected in two subsequent scholastic years. Structural equation modeling analyses corroborated a conceptual model in which teachers' personal efficacy beliefs affected their job satisfaction and students' academic achievement, controlling for previous levels of achievement.     

Norm-Narrowing and Self- and Other-Perceived Aggression in Early-Adolescent Same-Sex and Mixed-Sex Cliques

We examined the relations between group context and self- and other-perceptions of aggressive behavior in an ethnically-diverse sample of 168 male and female grade 7 adolescents. We used self- and peer-reports of aggression in high- and average-aggressive mixed-sex and same-sex cliques to examine whether group members would assimilate their self-report of aggression to the aggression report of their peers by way of perceived homophily or, conversely, engage in contrast and see their level of aggression as comparatively low in the face of high-aggression peers. Among boys in mixed-sex groups, comparison with highly-aggressive others resulted in a self-perception of lower levels of aggression than those perceived by their peers. Conversely, girls in mixed-sex groups reported their own levels of aggression to be higher than those perceived by their peers. We interpret these findings in terms of the notion of “norm narrowing”: rather than being set by the larger social environment, such as the school, norms are more narrowly determined within one's immediate peer group.