Non-bayesian foundations for statistical estimation, prediction, and the ravens example

The paper provides a formal proof that efficient estimates of parameters, which vary as as little as possible when measurements are repeated, may be expected to provide more accurate predictions. The definition of predictive accuracy is motivated by the work of Akaike (1973). Surprisingly, the same explanation provides a novel solution for a well known problem for standard theories of scientific confirmation — the Ravens Paradox. This is significant in light of the fact that standard Bayesian analyses of the paradox fail to account for the predictive utility of universal laws like All ravens are black.I wish to thank Martin Barrett, Ellery Eells, Berent Enç, Branden Fitelson, Dan Hausman, Eric Saidel, Brian Skyrms, Elliott Sober, Mariam Thalos, as well as anonymous reviewer, for helpful suggestions. This research was supported by NSF grant DIR-8822278, and by the Graduate School at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.     

On mirroring in group psychotherapy

“A woman has two images. There is a magical person seen or remembered by those who love her, her finest qualities are flesh and spirit illuminated. She herself knows this ideal self; she projects it, if she is confident; or she daydreams her ideal self; or she recognizes it with gratitude in the admiring eye of others. There is at the same time a second image; the woman as seen by those who dislike or fear her. This cruel picture has an all too powerful mirror in her own negative idea of herself. She sees with fear her own ravaging impulses and most painful of all, a graceless, freakish, and unlovable physical self, this was the mirror her parents held before Edith. Her brothers saw her with love. She herself knew both images. Her life, and her poetry, constituted a flight from the second one.”     

The Reality and Myth of Rape: Implications for theCriminal Justice System

This article sets out to evaluate the researchevidence for rape myths and the extent to which theyare causally related to rape proclivity; negativeattitudes towards rape victims; and the reporting ofsexual assault incidents to the police. In reviewingthis literature, we provide an evaluation of theimpact of this research on the criminal justice systemand possible future developments. We argue that thisresearch, while failing to provide conclusive evidenceof a causal relationship, has nevertheless played animportant part in shaping more sympathetic approachestowards rape victims in the criminal justice system.However, we also argue that the current research fallsshort of the level of proof required for it to beadmitted as evidence in criminal trials. We considera number of alternative uses including AmicusCuriae briefs, and the training of juries and judgesprior to hearing rape cases.     

Why did it happen to me? Social cognition processes in adjustment and recovery from criminal victimisation and illness

This article reviews the theoretical framework and empirical evidence for the hypothesised relationship between self-blame attributions and psychological adjustment. In doing so, an argument is presented that poses an alternative interpretation to that which is widely accepted regarding the complex relationship between blame attributions, perceived control, self-esteem, and recovery. A number of fundamental issues concerning the assumptions underlying Janoff-Bulman’s model are identified and explored. In particular, attention is given to the importance of distinguishing perceived control from likelihood of recurrence, and perceived control from outcome expectancy. Finally, the possibility that attributions may not play as fundamental a role in adjustment as first thought is considered, and future lines of enquiry are identified.     

Problems involved in toilet-training profoundly mentally handicapped adults

Toileting difficulties constitute a severe problem in institutions for the mentally handicapped. The present study, in a British institution, is a cross-validation of the approach to toilet training outlined by Azrin et al. in the U.S.A. Although Azrin's approach was basically successful, a number of differences were found in running the programme. These differences, together with practical difficulties encountered, are discussed.     

A test of inclusion which allows for errors of measurement

A test which allows for errors of measurement is derived for the hypothesis that all the members of a population who possess a certain skill are a sub-set of the members who possess another skill. Formulae are given for one particular case when two questions are used for each skill, and for when three questions are used for each skill. An illustrative example is given for the two-question case. The authors are indebted to M. L. Turner for his assistance in the initial stages of development of the test.     

Elevator illusion: Influences of otolith organ activity and neck proprioception

Each of nine Ss experienced gravitational-inertial forces (GIFs) of 1.00, 1.25, 1.50, and 1.75 G_z with his head erect and pitched forward at angles of 15 and 30 deg. The magnitude of the elevator illusion was shown to depend on both the intensity of the GIFs and the orientation of the head. Contributions of otolith organ activity and of neck proprioception to the illusion were examined, and theoretical baseg for their influences were discussed.     

Stimulus intensity,catch trial effects,and the speed-accuracy tradeoff in reaction time: A variable criterion theory interptation

Ss responded to a 1,000-Hz tone of 50, 80, or 100 dB. Catch trial conditions were none, blank trials, a red light, a noise, and an 1,800-Hz tone. Auditory catch signals were of the same intensities. RT distributions in the first three conditions were well described by a family of exponential growth functions dependent upon stimulus intensity and by the parameters of normal criterion distributions dependent upon catch trial conditions and between-session variability. Performance in the auditory catch trial conditions was not dependent upon the same set of sensory growth functions. Performance in these conditions was described by a two-dimensional analysis of information transmitted as a function of time and interpreted in terms of variable criterion theory. The speed-accuracy tradeoff in this situation appears to depend upon differential rates of growth of intensity and associative information and the criterion used in responding to this information.     

Development and validation of the Eating Behavior Inventory

The Eating Behavior Inventory (EBI) is a self-report instrument for assessing behaviors that have been theoretically implicated in weight loss, e.g., self-monitoring of food intake and of weight, refusing offers of food, eating at only one place, shopping from a list, eating in response to emotions. Thirty items were constructed in the form of first-person statements, e.g., I eat in the middle of the night. Each item was to be rated with a 5-point scale according to how often it was true for the respondent. Items were scored such that higher scores always reflected more appropriate (theoretically facilitative of weight control) eating patterns. Validity of individual items and total score was assessed in four studies. Twenty-six of the original items appeared valid and were retained. The resulting total score demonstrated validity in these studies and in two cross-validational comparisons. Internal consistency as measured by split-half reliability and correlations of item scores with total score was acceptable. One month test-retest reliability of item and total scores was satisfactory. Clinical and research applications of the EBI are discussed.An early version of this article was presented at the Taos International Conference on Treatment of Addictive Behaviors, Taos, New Mexico, February 1979.     

The influence of professional expertise and task complexity upon the potency of the contextual interference effect

The contextual interference (CI) effect has been investigated through practice schedule manipulations within both basic and applied studies. Despite extensive research activity there is little conclusive evidence regarding the optimal practice structure of real world manipulative tasks in professional training settings. The present study therefore assessed the efficacy of practising simple and complex knot-tying skills in professional fire-fighters training. Forty-eight participants were quasi-randomly assigned to various practice schedules along the CI continuum. Twenty-four participants were students selected for their novice knot-tying capabilities and 24 were experienced fire-fighters who were more 'experienced knot-tiers'. They were assessed for skill acquisition, retention and transfer effects having practiced tying knots classified as simple or complex. Surprisingly, high levels of CI scheduling enhance learning for novices even when practising a complex task. The findings also revealed that CI benefits are most apparent as learners engage in tasks high in transfer distality. In conclusion, complexity and experience are mediating factors influencing the potency of the CI training effect in real-world settings.