Probabilities For Two Properties

Let R(X, B) denote the class of probability functions that are defined on algebra X and that represent rationally permissible degrees of certainty for a person whose total relevant background evidence is B. This paper is concerned with characterizing R(X, B) for the case in whichX is an algebra of propositions involving two properties and B is empty. It proposes necessary conditions for a probability function to be in R(X, B), some of which involve the notion of statistical dependence. The class of probability functions that satisfy these conditions, here denoted P_I, includes a class that Carnap once proposed for the same situation. Probability functions in P_I violate Carnap's axiom of analogy but, it is argued, that axiom should be rejected. A derivation of Carnap's model by Hesse has limitations that are not present in the derivation of P_I given here. Various alternative probability models are considered and rejected.     

Childhood sexual behavior as an indicator of sexual abuse: professionals' criteria and biases

Some sexual behaviors are related to child sexual abuse experiences, but none unequivocally. Therefore, professionals might use non-empirical-based criteria and be biased when detecting and reporting victims. To check this hypothesis, we presented 974 Spanish and Latin American professionals from different fields (Psychology, Education, Health, Social Services, Justice, and Police Force) with hypothetical situations of child sexual behavior (varying the sex, age and behavior) by using an experimental vignette method based on Factorial Survey. Participants were asked to indicate whether such behaviors are a sign of abuse and whether they would report them. We also measured demographic, academic, professional and attitude factors. According to the analysis, professionals' suspicion of abuse is more affected by personal factors, whereas their reporting intention depends more on situational factors. The main criterion adopted is the type of sexual behavior, with professionals being more likely to suspect and report in response to aggressive sexual behavior and precocious sexual knowledge. Professionals' attitudes to sexuality seem to generate biases, as those who are erotophobic are more likely to suspect abuse. None of the sexual behaviors was seen as evidence of abuse.     

Psychometric schizotypy and motor performance

Motor abnormalities have long been a focus in discussions of schizophrenia. The present study used a newly developed line drawing task to examine fine motor performance and psychometrically assessed schizotypy in a large, randomly ascertained sample of young adults (N = 120) with no history of psychosis. Poor motor performance on the line drawing task, indexed by root-mean-square error (RMS), was significantly related to 4 separate psychometric measures of schizotypy in the overall sample. The psychometric schizotypy-RMS association remained significant for 2 of the schizotypy measures even when the effects of intellectual functioning, mental state factors, and sustained attention were statistically controlled in a regression analysis. The status of the line drawing index as a schizophrenia liability measure is discussed.     

How contextual and individual characteristics influence psychological needs satisfaction: The critical roles of political skill and political will

This two-study research package investigates the interactive effects of perceptions of organizational politics, political skill, and political will on psychological need satisfaction, which has been shown to predict a number of different important organizational outcomes. Drawing primarily on social/political influence and self-determination theories, we propose that although perceptions of organizational politics (i.e., as an important situational or contextual variable) can demonstrate need-thwarting effects for some, its effects can be need-satisfying for those individuals with high levels of political skill and political will. In Study 1, we analyze a sample of 142 individuals to demonstrate that possessing political skill attenuates the negative effects of perceptions of organizational politics on psychological need satisfaction. In Study 2, we analyze a sample of 420 individuals to demonstrate that respondents with high levels of both political skill and political will experience their highest levels of need satisfaction in highly political environments. Theoretical contributions, limitations and future research directions, and practical implications are discussed.     

Development of a Patient Adherence Scale for Exposure and Response Prevention Therapy

Exposure and response prevention (EX/RP) is an evidence-based treatment for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). For EX/RP to be maximally effective, it is believed that patients must adhere outside of sessions to the procedures they learn in therapy. To date, there is no standard measure of patient EX/RP adherence, despite the importance of accurately assessing EX/RP adherence in both clinical research and practice. This paper describes the development of the Patient EX/RP Adherence Scale (PEAS), which assesses the patient's between-session adherence to the therapist's EX/RP instructions, and presents initial data on the scale's reliability and validity. The scale was designed to focus on the key procedures of EX/RP and to be brief enough to be used at each treatment session. The scale demonstrates excellent interrater reliability and good face and content validity. The usefulness of the scale is considered in the context of being an important tool to researchers trying to understand and improve outcomes of EX/RP for OCD as well as to EX/RP therapists in clinical practice. Future research will need to test the scale's reliability and validity in a larger sample of patients over the course of treatment.     

Bayesian probability

Bayesian decision theory is here construed as explicating a particular concept of rational choice and Bayesian probability is taken to be the concept of probability used in that theory. Bayesian probability is usually identified with the agent’s degrees of belief but that interpretation makes Bayesian decision theory a poor explication of the relevant concept of rational choice. A satisfactory conception of Bayesian decision theory is obtained by taking Bayesian probability to be an explicatum for inductive probability given the agent’s evidence.     

The Concept of Inductive Probability

The word ‘probability’ in ordinary language has two different senses, here called inductive and physical probability. This paper examines the concept of inductive probability. Attempts to express this concept in other words are shown to be either incorrect or else trivial. In particular, inductive probability is not the same as degree of belief. It is argued that inductive probabilities exist; subjectivist arguments to the contrary are rebutted. Finally, it is argued that inductive probability is an important concept and that it is a mistake to try to replace it with the concept of degree of belief, as is usual today.     

The school psychologist as an organizational boundary role professional

An organizational perspective on the school psychologist's role can provide a basis for integrating disparate activities, reduce ambiguity produced by lack of role consensus, and facilitate more effective role behavior. The school psychologist is herein described as an organizational boundary role professional. Relevant theory and research on this conception are presented and parallels to school psychological practice are drawn. Implications for practice, training, and research in school psychology are also discussed.