Application of regression and neural models to predict competitive swimming performance

This research problem was indirectly but closely connected with the optimization of an athlete-selection process, based on predictions viewed as determinants of future successes. The research project involved a group of 249 competitive swimmers (age 12 yr., SD = 0.5) who trained and competed for four years. Measures involving fitness (e.g., lung capacity), strength (e.g., standing long jump), swimming technique (turn, glide, distance per stroke cycle), anthropometric variables (e.g., hand and foot size), as well as specific swimming measures (speeds in particular distances), were used. The participants (n = 189) trained from May 2008 to May 2009, which involved five days of swimming workouts per week, and three additional 45-min. sessions devoted to measurements necessary for this study. In June 2009, data from two groups of 30 swimmers each (n = 60) were used to identify predictor variables. Models were then constructed from these variables to predict final swimming performance in the 50 meter and 800 meter crawl events. Nonlinear regression models and neural models were built for the dependent variable of sport results (performance at 50m and 800m). In May 2010, the swimmers' actual race times for these events were compared to the predictions created a year prior to the beginning of the experiment. Results for the nonlinear regression models and perceptron networks structured as 8-4-1 and 4-3-1 indicated that the neural models overall more accurately predicted final swimming performance from initial training, strength, fitness, and body measurements. Differences in the sum of absolute error values were 4:11.96 (n = 30 for 800m) and 20.39 (n = 30 for 50m), for models structured as 8-4-1 and 4-3-1, respectively, with the neural models being more accurate. It seems possible that such models can be used to predict future performance, as well as in the process of recruiting athletes for specific styles and distances in swimming.     

Understanding the research program

The target article misunderstands the research program it criticizes. The work of Boyd, Richerson, Fehr, Gintis, Bowles and their collaborators has long included the theoretical and empirical study of models both with and without diffuse costly punishment. In triaging the situation, we aim to (1) clarify the theoretical landscape, (2) highlight key points of agreement, and (3) suggest a more productive line of debate.     

The relationship between need for closure and memory for schema-related information among younger and older adults

Two studies were conducted to examine the relationships among need for closure (NFC) and schematic information processing in younger and older adults. The results show increased NFC to be associated with less schematic processing (i.e., less memory for schema-consistent items, and more memory for schema-irrelevant items, out of all items memorized correctly), among older than younger adults. The findings of the studies are interpreted as demonstrating the age-associated deficit in information processing consistent with the level of NFC. Moreover, the results indicate that positive mood may play a role in facilitating information processing consistent with the level of NFC among older and younger adults. Finally, we present a framework for predicting when older adults will and will not effectively use schematic processing, considered a compensatory strategy for decline in cognitive abilities.     

Context-dependent impairment of recollection in list-method directed forgetting

In list-method directed forgetting, people's ability to forget one of the sets of learned material is examined. Research shows that memory for to-be-forgotten items is impaired when assessed by a recall test and by recognition tests reliant on recollective processes. Retrieval inhibition and context-change mechanisms have been proposed to account for the directed forgetting effects and both of them account for the results obtained with recognition tests. However, the context change account makes a specific prediction that recollection is impaired by directed forgetting only if it makes use of contextual associations. In the present study, directed forgetting was examined with two types of recollection-based tasks making use of different types of associations, namely a list discrimination task utilising contextual associations and an associative recognition task utilising interitem associations. Consistent with the context change account, the costs of directed forgetting were observed in a list discrimination task and were not observed in an associative recognition task. The results indicate that impairment in recollection due to directed forgetting is not general and provide converging evidence to support the context-change account.     

Addicted to answers: Need for cognitive closure and the endorsement of conspiracy beliefs

Conspiracy theories offer simple answers to complex problems by providing explanations for uncertain situations. Thus, they should be attractive to individuals who are intolerant of uncertainty and seek cognitive closure. We hypothesized that need for cognitive closure (NFCC) should foster conspiracy beliefs about events that lack clear official explanations, especially when conspiracy theories are temporarily salient. In Experiment 1, NFCC positively predicted the endorsement of a conspiracy theory behind the refugee crisis, especially when conspiratorial explanations were made salient. Experiment 2 showed that when conspiratorial explanations were made salient, NFCC positively predicted beliefs in conspiracies behind a mysterious plane crash. However, the link between NFCC and beliefs in conspiratorial explanations was reversed in the case of a plane crash with an official, non‐conspiratorial, explanation for the accident. In conclusion, people high (vs. low) in NFCC seize on conspiratorial explanations for uncertain events when such explanations are situationally accessible.     

Particularity of Content and Illusions of Identity

This paper argues that the accuracy of perceptual experiences cannot be properly characterized by using the particular notion of content without breaking one of the three plausible assumptions. On the other hand, the general notion of content is not threatened by this problem. The first assumption is that all elements of content determine the accuracy conditions of an experience. The second states that objects needed for the accuracy of experiences are physical entities that stand in a perceptual relation to a subject. According to the third assumption, common experiences do not have accuracy conditions that are impossible to satisfy. The above point is demonstrated by analysing illusions of identity in which the number of objects is represented incorrectly. In the concluding parts of the paper, I investigate how an alternative account of particular content can be developed by rejecting the first assumption.     

When Interrogative Self‐talk Improves Task Performance: The Role of Answers to Self‐posed Questions

Nearly all the self‐talk cues studied so far have been self‐statements. However, the findings of Senay, Albarracin, and Noguchi suggest that interrogative self‐talk produces better task performance than declarative one. Two of the experiments reported here were meant to replicate that study, but the expected differences were not confirmed. Experiment 3 showed that if a self‐posed question about future behavior was answered positively, task performance was better than in groups exposed either to the self‐statement ‘I will do it’ or to a negative answer following the question. However, these differences occurred only in those who self‐reported the awareness of the impact of self‐talk on their thought processes. This effect and the possible reasons why between‐group differences were not found in Experiments 1 and 2 are discussed. An alternative explanation for the results of Experiment 3 is also proposed beside that stressing the impact of internal answer. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Logic of nondeterministic information

In the paper we define a class of languages for representation o knowledge in those application areas when a complete information about a domain is not available. In the languages we introduce modal operators determined by accessibility relations depending on parameters.     

No non-trivial quasivariety of BCK-algebras has decidable first order theory

Using the semantic embedding technique the theorem announced by the title is proved.