Many human interactions involve pieces of information being passed from one person to another, raising the question of how this process of information transmission is affected by the cognitive capacities of the agents involved. Bartlett (1932) explored the influence of memory biases on the “serial reproduction” of information, in which one person’s reconstruction of a stimulus from memory becomes the stimulus seen by the next person. These experiments were done using relatively uncontrolled stimuli, but suggested that serial reproduction could transform information in a way that reflected the biases inherent in memory. We formally analyze serial reproduction using a Bayesian model of reconstruction from memory, giving a general result characterizing the effect of memory biases on information transmission. We then test the predictions of this account in four experiments using simple one-dimensional stimuli. Our results provide theoretical and empirical justification for the idea that serial reproduction reflects memory biases. 相似文献
Traditional mediation analysis assumes that a study population is homogeneous and the mediation effect is constant over time, which may not hold in some applications. Motivated by smoking cessation data, we propose a latent class dynamic mediation model that explicitly accounts for the fact that the study population may consist of different subgroups and the mediation effect may vary over time. We use a proportional odds model to accommodate the subject heterogeneities and identify latent subgroups. Conditional on the subgroups, we employ a Bayesian hierarchical nonparametric time-varying coefficient model to capture the time-varying mediation process, while allowing each subgroup to have its individual dynamic mediation process. A simulation study shows that the proposed method has good performance in estimating the mediation effect. We illustrate the proposed methodology by applying it to analyze smoking cessation data.
