Confidence in judgments based on incomplete information: An investigation using both hypothetical and real gambles

This study assessed how confidence in judgments is affected by the need to make inferences about missing information. Subjects indicated their likelihood of taking each of a series of gambles based on both probability and payoff information or only one of these sources of information. They also rated their confidence in each likelihood judgment. Subjects in the Explicit Inference condition were asked to explicitly estimate the values of missing information before making their responses while subjects in the Implicit Inference condition were not. The manner in which probability information was framed was also manipulated. Experiment 1 employed hypothetical gambles and Experiment 2 employed gambles with real money. Expressed likelihood of taking gambles was higher when probability was phrased in terms of '% chance of winning' rather than '% chance of losing', but this difference was somewhat less with real gambles than with hypothetical gambles. Confidence ratings in each experiment were actually higher on incomplete information trials than on complete information trials in the Explicit Inference condition. Results were related to the general issue of confidence in judgments.     

Attitudes toward older and younger adults: a meta-analysis

Attitudes toward the elderly have been examined in a number of empirical studies, yet the question of whether the elderly are viewed more negatively than younger persons has not been resolved. A meta-analysis of the literature was conducted to examine this question; results demonstrated that attitudes toward the elderly are more negative than attitudes toward younger people. However, smaller differences between the evaluations of elderly and younger targets were found when (a) the study used measures of personality traits (compared with measures of competence), (b) there were a larger number of dependent measures included in the effect size, (c) specific information was provided about the target person (compared with when a general target such as old person was used), and (d) a between-subjects design (compared with a within-subjects design) was used. These results support Lutsky's (1981) conclusion that age, in and of itself, seems to be less important in determining attitudes toward the elderly than other types of information. The methodological limitations within the literature and a need to consider multiple components of attitudes toward older individuals are discussed.     

Life event categories differentially predict psychopathology symptom levels.

The present study used a prospective design to investigate whether eight categories of daily negative life events or "hassles" differentially predict psychopathology levels, and/or changes in psychopathology levels over 1 month in a mixed-sex, nonclinical sample of undergraduate subjects. Hassles were assessed using the Revised Hassles Scale (HS-R; DeLongis, 1985); psychopathology was assessed using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (SCL-90; Derogatis, Lipman, & Covi, 1973) on two occasions, separated by 1 month. Scores on all eight HS-R subscales predicted Time 2 scores on most or all of the SCL-90 psychopathology scales. However, the magnitudes of these correlations varied widely, indicating that these subscales may be substantially different in their abilities to predict psychopathology levels.     

Are insomniacs sleepy during the day? A pupillometric assessment.

A biodevelopmental model of insomnia is articulated specifying coordinated nighttime (disturbed sleep pattern) and daytime (no excessive daytime sleepiness) characteristics defining an insomnoid classification in at-risk groups: short sleepers and older adults. Pupillometry is proposed as a useful means of discriminating degree of daytime sleepiness to aid in the differential diagnosis of insomnia and insomnoid states, and the present study tested the discriminative validity of this approach. Noninsomniac (n = 34) and insomniac (n = 29) college students submitted to four 10 min pupillometry sessions tracking daytime sleepiness from morning arising to bedtime. Pupil diameter proved to be an able discriminator of these two groups though substantial overlap of the two distributions was also noted. The results supported the sensitivity of pupillometry in detecting daytime sleepiness, but yielded alternative interpretations. We observed statistical differentiation in insomniac and noninsomniac daytime sleepiness, but substantial, functional overlap between these groups. Assessment and treatment implications arising from the biodevelopmental model were hypothesized.     

Word-finding abilities of three types of aphasic subjects

Word-finding difficulties are often observed among different types of aphasic patients. This investigation analyzed the word-finding abilities of 30 aphasic subjects (10 Broca's, 10 Wernicke's, and 10 anomic). Forty nouns counterbalanced according to word length and frequency of occurrence in English language usage were used as stimuli and presented through four modalities (oral expression, writing, auditory comprehension, and reading comprehension). It was expected that patterns of word finding abilities would help in the classification of the different types of aphasia. In addition, long words and less frequently occurring words in English language usage should prove more difficult in word-finding ability, regardless of modality. The results of this study found long words and less frequent words were more difficult for aphasic subjects. Among the modalities, long words were significantly harder than short words for the writing modality only. It was also found that semantic errors were the most common errors for all types of aphasic subjects. Broca's subjects produced significantly moreno response errors in oral expression; Wernicke's subjects produced significantly more semantic and phonemic errors in reading comprehension; and, Wernicke's subjects produced significantly more unrelated errors in both oral expression and reading comprehension. Clinical implications were also discussed.The present study was based on a doctoral dissertation completed at the City University of New York in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in Speech and Hearing Sciences by the first author under the direction of the second author. The authors wish to thank Dr. Louis J. Gerstman for his assistance with the statistical analysis of this research and Dr. Robert Goldfarb for all his helpful suggestions and editorial comments.     

Wayfinding on foot from information in retinal, not optical, flow.

People find their way through cluttered environments with ease and without injury. How do they do it? Two approaches to wayfinding are considered: Differential motion parallax (DMP) is a retinal motion invariant of near and far objects moving against fixation; the information in optical flow (IOF) is a radial pattern of vectors, relying on decomposition of retinal flow. Evidence is presented that DMP guides wayfinding during natural gait, accounting for errors as well as correct responses. Evidence against IOF is also presented, and a space-time aliasing artifact that can contaminate IOF displays is explored. Finally, DMP and IOF are separated, showing they can yield different results in different environments. Thus, it is concluded that (a) DMP and IOF are different, (b) DMP and not IOF is used for wayfinding, (c) moving observers do not usually decompose retinal flow, and (d) optical flow may be a mathematical fiction with no psychological reality.     

Goal-performance relations: The effects of initial task complexity and task practice

The current study was conducted to examine the effects of task complexity and task practice (trials) on the goal-performance relationship. Specific, difficult goal assignments were predicted to enhance performance on a complex task only in later task practice. On a simpler task, specific, difficult goal assignments were predicted to enhance performance in early task practice and to disrupt performance in later task practice. The results indicated that goals exerted the predicted effects in the simple task version but had no effect in the complex task version. Possible relationships between amount of task practice and stages of skill acquisition are discussed for tasks differing in complexity. The results are also discussed in terms of cognitive resource demands and self-regulatory processes. Implications for the effectiveness of goals in relation to task complexity and task trials are also discussed.This article is based on the senior author's dissertation at the University of Minnesota. We thank Milt Hakel, Allan Jones, and Bart Osburn for their helpful comments on earlier drafts. The authors also wish to thank Phil Ackerman and John Campbell for their insightful comments throughout the research project and other members of the dissertation committee: Rich Arvey, Mark Davisson, and Marvin Dunnette.This research was partially supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research Project LAMP, under the auspices of the Air Force Human Resources Laboratory (contract AFOSR-87-0234) and by a Research Initiation Grant from the University of Houston.Portions of this data were presented at the American Psychological Association Meetings, Atlanta, 1988.