Context affects the interpretation of low but not high numerical probabilities: A hypothesis testing account of subjective probability

Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be interpreted either positively, suggesting the occurrence of the target event, or negatively, suggesting its non-occurrence. High numerical probabilities, however, are typically interpreted positively. We argue that the greater directional ambiguity of low numerical probabilities may make them more susceptible than high probabilities to contextual influences. Results from five experiments supported this premise, with perceived base rate affecting the interpretation of an event’s numerical posterior probability more when it was low than high. The effect is consistent with a confirmatory hypothesis testing process, with the relevant perceived base rate suggesting the directional hypothesis which people then test in a confirmatory manner.     

Freak Observers and the Simulation Argument

The simulation hypothesis claims that the whole observable universe, including us, is a computer simulation implemented by technologically advanced beings for an unknown purpose. The simulation argument (as I reconstruct it) is an argument for this hypothesis with moderately plausible premises. I develop two lines of objection to the simulation argument. The first takes the form of a structurally similar argument for a conflicting conclusion, the claim that I am a so‐called freak observer, formed spontaneously in a quantum or thermodynamic fluctuation rather than through ordinary processes of evolution and growth. The second rejects the basic line of reasoning of both arguments: the sort of evidence they cite is not capable of supporting either the claim that I am a simulant or the claim that I am a freak observer. The evidence that simulants or freak observers exist is not a reason to think that I am one of them.     

Implicit expectations influence target detection in children and adults

When a sound occurs at a predictable time, it gets processed more efficiently. Predictability of the temporal structure of acoustic inflow has been found to influence the P3b of event‐related potentials in young adults, such that highly predictable compared to less predictable input leads to earlier P3b peak latencies. In our study, we wanted to investigate the influence of predictability on target processing indexed by the P3b in children (10–12 years old) and young adults. To do that, we used an oddball paradigm with two conditions of predictability (high and low). In the High‐predictability condition, a high‐pitched target tone occurred most of the time in the fifth position of a five‐tone pattern (after four low‐pitched non‐target sounds), whereas in the Low‐predictability condition, no such rule was implemented. The target tone occurred randomly following 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 non‐target tones. In both age groups, reaction time to predictable targets was faster than to non‐predictable targets. Remarkably, this effect was largest in children. Consistent with the behavioral responses, the onset latency of the P3b response elicited by targets in both groups was earlier in the predictable than the unpredictable conditions. However, only the children had significantly earlier peak latency responses for predictable targets. Our results demonstrate that target stimulus predictability increases processing speed in children and adults even when predictability was only implicitly derived by the stimulus statistics. Children did have larger effects of predictability, seeming to benefit more from predictability for target detection.     

Can We Consume Our Way Out of Climate Change? A Call for Analysis

The problem of climate change is analyzed as a manifestation of economic growth, and the steady-state economy of ecological economics is proposed as a system-wide solution. Four classes of more specific solutions are described. In the absence of analysis, cultural inertia will bias solutions in favor of green consumption as a generalized solution strategy. By itself, green consumption is a flawed solution to climate change because it perpetuates or even accelerates economic growth that is incompatible with a sustainable culture. Addressing climate change requires an integration of regulatory, energy efficiency, skill-based, and dissemination solutions. Behavioral scientists are encouraged to work with others in ecological economics and other social sciences who recognize cultural reinvention as a means of achieving sustainability.     

Living in the Past,Present, and Future: Measuring Temporal Orientation With Language

Temporal orientation refers to individual differences in the relative emphasis one places on the past, present, or future, and it is related to academic, financial, and health outcomes. We propose and evaluate a method for automatically measuring temporal orientation through language expressed on social media. Judges rated the temporal orientation of 4,302 social media messages. We trained a classifier based on these ratings, which could accurately predict the temporal orientation of new messages in a separate validation set (accuracy/mean sensitivity = .72; mean specificity = .77). We used the classifier to automatically classify 1.3 million messages written by 5,372 participants (50% female; ages 13–48). Finally, we tested whether individual differences in past, present, and future orientation differentially related to gender, age, Big Five personality, satisfaction with life, and depressive symptoms. Temporal orientations exhibit several expected correlations with age, gender, and Big Five personality. More future‐oriented people were older, more likely to be female, more conscientious, less impulsive, less depressed, and more satisfied with life; present orientation showed the opposite pattern. Language‐based assessments can complement and extend existing measures of temporal orientation, providing an alternative approach and additional insights into language and personality relationships.     

Contextual memory and skill transfer in category search

In three experiments, we examined transfer and contextual memory in a category search task. Each experiment included two phases (training and test), during which participants searched through category and exemplar menus for targets. In Experiment 1, the targets were from one of two domains during training (grocery store or department store); the domain was either the same or changed at test. Also, the categories were organized in one of two ways (alphabetically or semantically); the organization either remained the same or changed at test. In Experiments 2 and 3, domain and organization were held constant; however, categories or exemplars were the same, partially replaced, or entirely replaced across phases in order to simulate the dynamic nature of category search in everyday situations. Transfer occurred at test when the category organization or domain was maintained and when the categories or exemplars matched (partially or entirely) those at training. These results demonstrate that transfer is facilitated by overlap in training and testing contexts.     

After-School Supervision, Psychosocial Impact, and Adolescent Smoking and Alcohol Use in China

We examined effects of self-care after school hours and psychosocial factors on cigarette smoking and alcohol use among adolescents in China. Survey data were obtained from 4734 7th and 11th grade students from seven cities across China. Students were queried about the frequency and quantity of unsupervised self-care after school in an average week. Tobacco and alcohol usage were also obtained. Odds ratios were calculated to determine the strength of association between unsupervised self-care after school and substance use. Results indicated that the amount of self-care after-school (how many days and how many hours per week) was significantly associated with increased risk for smoking and alcohol use among Chinese adolescents. These associations remained significant even after controlling for anxiety, depressive symptoms, and peer influence. The interaction between unsupervised self-care after school and peer influence indicated that unsupervised self-care after school is a stronger risk factor for smoking among adolescents with pro-smoking friends. The findings suggest that substance use prevention programs for youth in China should try to enhance parental monitoring. As it may not be feasible for families to revert to a lifestyle that includes supervision by relatives, other approaches such as organized after-school care are worthy of consideration.     

TOTEMISM,METAPHOR AND TRADITION: INCORPORATING CULTURAL TRADITIONS INTO EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY EXPLANATIONS OF RELIGION

Totemism, a topic that fascinated and then was summarily dismissed by anthropologists, has been resurrected by evolutionary psychologists’ recent attempts to explain religion. New approaches to religion are all based on the assumption that religious behavior is the result of evolved psychological mechanisms. We focus on two aspects of Totemism that may present challenges to this view. First, if religious behavior is simply the result of evolved psychological mechanisms, would it not spring forth anew each generation from an individual's psychological mechanisms? Yet, Australian Totemism, like other forms of Totemism, is profoundly traditional, copied by one generation from the prior ones for hundreds of generations. Regardless of personal inclinations, individuals are obligated to participate. Second, it is problematic to assume that all practitioners of Totemism actually believe their religious claims. We propose an alternative explanation that accounts for the persistence of Totemism and that does not rely on an assumption that its practitioners are preliterate or naive because they have strange beliefs. We focus on Totemism as a cultural mechanism aimed at building and sustaining social relationships among close and distant kinsmen.     

Noncompetition Agreements: How Informed Are Counselors?

A noncompetition agreement is a contract between employer and employee prohibiting the practice of a trade or profession for a specified time or within a specified region upon an employee's leaving an employer's hire (A. Valiulis, 1985). The authors assessed American Mental Health Counselor Association members' knowledge of the legal bases for these contracts and their agreement with the legal opinions and also assessed the degree of similarity and dissimilarity between members' knowledge of and agreement with the legal opinions. Results showed that counselors are better prepared to look after the welfare of their clients than their own employment interests. Implications for counselor training are discussed.     

Age related effects in children taking the computerized assessment of response bias and word memory test.

The assessment of effort is a fundamental component of test performance analysis, since effort determines whether a psychological evaluation is valid. The assessment of effort in children has proven problematic. This may be related to the variable and inconsistent nature of children's developing self-regulatory systems, and the fact that measures commonly used to assess effort were standardized on adults. If one uses effort measures designed for adults to assess children, then one must presume that the maintenance of effort in children is comparable to the same behavior in adults. However, because children's executive functioning, including their abilities to self-regulate, attend, concentrate, and to engage in various cognitive activities improve with time (Barkley, 1997, pp. 209-234), our hypothesis is that young children's effort regulation is dissimilar to that of adults, and the presumption of similarity is implausible. The purpose of this study was to determine whether age is a significant influence upon young children's performances on the Computerized Assessment of Response Bias (CARB) and Word Memory Test (WMT). Statistical analysis suggests that younger children (those under 10 years of age) tended to produce poorer performance on these instruments. Younger children's scores differed significantly from children ages 10 and older. Children 11 years and older produced CARB and WMT results similar to adult participants, suggesting a viability for adult normative comparisons with children in this age range. The current investigation concluded that children's maintenance of effort appears to be significantly related to age and reading ability level. Consequently, the use of current adult-based norms with the CARB and WMT, without regard for a child's developmental status and other contextual factors such as the child's ability to read, appears ill-advised especially with children under 11 years of age.