An introduction to Bayesian hierarchical models with an application in the theory of signal detection

Although many nonlinear models of cognition have been proposed in the past 50 years, there has been little consideration of corresponding statistical techniques for their analysis. In analyses with nonlinear models, unmodeled variability from the selection of items or participants may lead to asymptotically biased estimation. This asymptotic bias, in turn, renders inference problematic. We show, for example, that a signal detection analysis of recognition memory data leads to asymptotic underestimation of sensitivity. To eliminate asymptotic bias, we advocate hierarchical models in which participant variability, item variability, and measurement error are modeled simultaneously. By accounting for multiple sources of variability, hierarchical models yield consistent and accurate estimates of participant and item effects in recognition memory. This article is written in tutorial format; we provide an introduction to Bayesian statistics, hierarchical modeling, and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques.     

“组织学习障碍”研究

组织要进行真正的学习 ,就必须克服“组织学习障碍”。“组织学习障碍”分为“单环学习障碍”和“双环学习障碍”两大类。为了克服“组织学习障碍”,首先必须消除组织的习惯性防御机制 ,然后进行“学习型组织”的各项修炼。     

Contesting Chineseness: An Examination of Religion and National Identity in Mainland China

For citizens of many countries around the world, religion is a necessary—though often contested—component of their national identity. From the vantage point of the symbolic boundaries approach, we argue that the Chinese government and various other social actors are in contestation to define “Chineseness” in religious terms. Using data from the 2007 Spiritual Life Study of Chinese Residents, this study explores the extent to which religion functions as a constitutive part of Chinese national identity. We find that the effectiveness of the Chinese government's demarcation of the symbolic boundaries around Chineseness related to religion varies across religious groups. Believers of each religion are likely to be strong advocates for their own religion's connection to Chinese national identity. Among the religions, traditional Chinese religions tend to demonstrate a stronger affinity with one another than with Christianity. Daoists are a particularly strong contestant in aligning Daoism with Chineseness, to the extent that they discredit the other religions’ suitability for the Chinese. We discuss the implications of these findings and point out directions for future research.     

Risk and Prisoner's Dilemma: A Reinterpretation of Coombs' Re‐parameterization

We propose a model to measure risk in a prisoner's dilemma based on Coombs' (1973) re‐parameterization of the game as an individual risk decision‐making task that chooses between a gamble of cooperation and another gamble of defection. Specifically, we propose an index, r, to represent the risk associated with cooperation relative to defection. In conjunction with Rapoport's (1967) index of cooperation (K), our formulation of risk allows us to construct games that vary in risk (as indexed by r) while controlling for cooperativeness (as indexed by K). Following utility analysis that models risk seeking as a convex utility function and risk averse as a concave function, we predict that risk‐seeking people cooperate more in games that the cooperation choice is more risky, whereas risk‐averse people cooperate more in games that the cooperation choice is less risky. In the three studies that we varied game parameters, used different measures of risk orientation and prosocial orientation and used different experimental procedures, we found robust results supporting our predictions. Theoretical analysis of our formulation further suggests that risk and cooperativeness of a prisoner's dilemma game is not entirely independent. Games that have a higher cooperativeness index are necessarily more risky. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sports spectator behavior: a test of the theory of planned behavior

The theory of planned behavior has been applied to sports and exercise behaviors. According to this theory, human intention to take action in a specific context is guided by three antecedents: attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control. Behavioral intention mediates the relationships between these three considerations and its ultimate performance. However, this theory has seldom been applied to the behaviors of spectators of sporting events. A sample of 269 volleyball spectators in Taiwan was studied to examine whether people's intention mediated their attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control toward a given behavior, watching the 2010 Fédération Internationale de Volleyball World Grand Prix in Taipei. Regression analyses did not support behavioral intention as a mediator. This result is discussed in the context of planned behavior.     

Predicting school achievement from cognitive and non-cognitive variables in a Chinese sample of elementary school children

The present study had two aims: First, to investigate the joint and specific roles of working memory (WM) and intelligence as predictors of school achievement. And second, to replicate and extend earlier findings (Spinath, Spinath, Harlaar, & Plomin, 2006) on the incremental validity of non-cognitive over cognitive abilities in the prediction of school achievement. The present sample consisted of N = 179 Chinese primary school children in the fourth grade. All measures including working memory (WM), intelligence and motivational items were assessed in class. Teachers provided test scores for the domains of Chinese and Math. We found that WM was a good predictor of school achievement and comparable in predictive power to intelligence. Together, cognitive ability including both WM and intelligence explained 17.8% and 36.4% of the variance in children's Chinese and Math scores, respectively. The relative importance of WM and intelligence varied with school domains with greater predictive power of WM for Math while intelligence explained a greater proportion of the variance in Chinese although the magnitude of this difference was only moderate. Domain-specific motivational constructs contributed only marginally to the prediction of school achievement for both Chinese and Math.     

Confucian Dynamism,the Role of Money and Consumer Ethical Beliefs: An Exploratory Study in Taiwan

Consumer ethics is the moral principles and standards that guide consumers to determine the certain consumption behaviors are ethically right or wrong. Whereas cultural and personal dimensions are crucial constructs affecting individual ethical attitudes and behaviors, few studies consider Confucian dynamism and the role of money in consumer ethics. Confucian dynamism, a cultural dimension based on Confucianism, has played a central role in guiding moral obligations and ethics in human relations in several East Asian countries. Thus, this study tested its hypotheses using a sample of 521 respondents obtained via a systematic random sampling technique. The authors find that individuals with a higher tendency to Confucian dynamism are less tolerant of unethical practices. These findings also show that the role of money partially influences consumer ethical beliefs. Finally, we examine the impact of demographic variables and find age and education affect consideration of ethical values.     

Predictors of Depressive Symptoms Among Children Affected by HIV in Rural China: A 3-Year Longitudinal Study

The current study was designed to examine the trend of depression among children affected by HIV (n = 1,221) in rural China over a period of 3 years and to explore baseline psychosocial factors that can predict depressive symptoms at 1- and 2-year follow-ups. Baseline depression score, trusting relationship with caregivers, perceived public stigma against children affected by HIV, and future expectation at baseline positively predicted the 1-year follow-up depression, while children’ self-report health status, self-esteem, and perceived social support negatively predicted depression at 1-year follow-up survey. Depression and self-report health status at baseline significantly predicted depression at the 2-year follow-up. The data in the current study suggested that depressive symptoms were chronic or recurring among some children affected by HIV/AIDS. The findings also underscore the importance of early identification, early intervention, and ongoing counseling for mental health problems among children affected by HIV/AIDS. Future psychological support programs need to target both mental health symptoms and resilient factors that will help these children to cope with adverse life events associated with HIV/AIDS.     

多义词造句任务对负性解释偏差的测量

本研究旨在归纳中文里可以用于测量解释偏差的多义词,并使用多义词造句任务,在广泛性焦虑症状人群中评估其测量有效性。经过对多义词负性与非负性含义常用程度的评分以及多义词造句任务项目区分度、信度、效度和目的隐蔽性的检验,筛选出两含义常用程度大致相同且对焦虑较为敏感的34个题目构成多义词造句任务,该任务信度良好,可以有效测得高低广泛性焦虑和状态焦虑人群中解释偏差的显著差异,且与同类的乱句重排任务相比,能猜出与猜对实验目的的被试显著更少。因此,中文多义词造句任务信效度良好,具有便捷、隐蔽的优势,可以用于解释偏差的相关研究。     

Culture and institutional agency: difference in judgments of economic behavior and organizational responsibilities

The current research tested the concept of institutional agency (IA) and its implications for laypeople's attribution patterns related to economic behaviors and organizational responsibilities. The term “institutional agency” refers to a set of lay theories about whether or not an organization can have personhood and related mental properties, such as wishes, desires, intents, and responsibility. Through three cross‐cultural studies, we found that people do form certain beliefs about IA which are similar to the legal discourse of institutional responsibility. However, there are significant cultural differences in views of IA, and the concept is more mentally salient for Americans than for Chinese. In Study 1, we distinguished institutional from group agency by showing the cultural differences on attributions in the scenario with “individual vs. group agency” and the scenario with “individual vs. institutional agency.” In Study 2, we again demonstrated the stronger salience of IA for Americans than for Chinese by including the individual, group, and institutional agencies together in one scenario. In Study 3, we further demonstrated that the concept of IA is more salient for Americans by presenting three different agents in separate scenarios. The practical implications of these cultural differences for cross‐cultural understanding and the psychological effects of economic globalization are discussed.