An optimal property of least squares weights in prediction models

In predicting scores fromp > 1 observed scores in a sample of sizeñ, the optimal strategy (minimum expected loss), under certain assumptions, is shown to be based upon the least squares regression weights computed from a previous sample. Letting represent the correlation between and the predicted values , and letting represent the correlation between and a different set of predicted values , where w is any weighting system which is not a function of , it is shown that the probability of being less than cannot exceed .50. The relationship of this result to previous research and practical implications are discussed.     

The effects of alcohol consumption and expectancies in an experimental date rape analogue

This study examined the impact of perceived token resistance and the psychological and pharmacological effects of alcohol consumption on men's discrimination of when a female wants her partner to stop his sexual advances. In a 2 (alcohol vs. no alcohol) × 2 (expectancy vs. no expectancy) × 2 (perceived token resistance vs. no resistance) randomized factorial design, male college students were exposed to an audiotape of a date rape. Before listening, participants were told that on the previous date the woman did not resist sexual contact or that she initially objected to the contact but the man was able to obtain the level of intimacy he desired. Relative to participants assigned to the no-alcohol expectancy or no-alcohol consumption group, participants in the alcohol expectancy and alcohol consumption groups took significantly longer to determine that the man should refrain from attempting further sexual contact. The implications of the findings are discussed.This investigation was carried out by the first author under the supervision of the second author in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.     

Crisis Management: Looking Back to Look Forward

Alexander George made a seminal contribution to theories of preventive diplomacy, crisis management, deterrence, and coercive diplomacy. Although he made his contribution in the highly structured environment of the Cold War, his analysis of the close connections between positive and negative inducements, the importance of interests in shaping outcomes, and the dangers of threat-based strategies as substitutes for policy speaks to the central challenges of contemporary global politics.     

Defining the boundary of childhood amnesia

When adults are asked to recall their earliest autobiographical memories most can recall nothing about their infancy and early childhood, a phenomenon commonly referred to as childhood amnesia. There is general consensus regarding the existence of childhood amnesia, but there remains considerable debate over its boundary. Most researchers have argued that the boundary of childhood amnesia occurs between the ages of 3 and 4 years, but in 1993 Usher and Neisser published a highly influential paper, which has subsequently been used to argue that the boundary may be as low as 2 years. In the present experiment we examined how changes in scoring criteria influence our estimates of the age of adults' earliest memories. We conclude that some coding criteria are more valid than others and that the best estimates of childhood amnesia will include measures of free recall in addition to the specific questions that have dominated prior research in this area.     

Harnessing the need for immediate gratification: cognitive reconstrual modulates the reward value of temptations

Many of us succumb to temptations, despite knowing that we will later regret doing so. How can such behavior be avoided? In three studies, the authors tested the hypothesis that reconstruing temptation as a test of a valued internal quality ("willpower") would decrease the tendency to succumb by reducing the appeal of the temptation. In Study 1, participants who construed a challenging handgrip task as a test of willpower resisted the temptation to terminate the painful task longer than participants who did not. In Study 2, participants performed a handgrip task twice. Only participants who changed their construal of the task into a test of willpower improved their performance. In Study 3, participants took a timed math test while being tempted by comedy clips. Participants who reconstrued the situation as willpower test compared with participants who did not, (a) enjoyed the videos less, and (b) were better able to resist the tempting videos. These studies demonstrate that cognitive reconstrual can be used to modify reward contingencies, so that succumbing to temptation becomes less appealing, and resisting temptation becomes more appealing.