Countering conspiracy theory beliefs: Understanding the conjunction fallacy and considering disconfirming evidence

Research suggests that a number of cognitive processes—including pattern perception, intentionality bias, proportionality bias, and confirmation bias—may underlie belief in a conspiracy theory. However, there are reasons to believe that conspiracy theory beliefs also depend in part on a failure to understand the probability of actual events allegedly supporting those conspiracy theories as well as a failure to entertain disconfirming evidence that may contradict those beliefs. Study 1 examines the relationships between general beliefs in conspiracy theories, belief in a novel conspiracy theory, conjunctive error propensity, and the propensity to consider disconfirming evidence. Study 2 investigates the roles of confronting both the propensity to make conjunctive errors and the failure to consider disconfirming evidence in changing conspiracy theory beliefs as well as attitudes associated with those beliefs. The results of both studies suggest that corrections to one's propensity to make conjunctive errors and mindful consideration of disconfirming evidence may serve as viable methods of self-persuasion pertaining to conspiracy theory beliefs.     

Navigating the narrative: An eye-tracking study of readers' strategies when Reading comic page layouts

In multimedia stimuli (e.g., comics), the reader must follow a narrative in which text and image both contribute information, and artists may use more irregular layouts which must still be followed correctly. While previous work has found that the external structure (outlines) of panels is a major contributor to navigation decisions in comics, other studies have shown that panel content can affect reading order. The present studies use eye-tracking to investigate these contributions further. In Experiment 1, the reading behaviors on six layout variations were compared. The influence of the external structure was replicated, but an effect of text location was also found for one layout type. Experiment 2 focused on variations of this particular layout, manipulating the location of text within critical panels. Panel content was a consistent effect for all variations. While most navigation decisions are made using the external structure, content becomes key when resolving ambiguous layouts.     

Using concurrent reinforcement schedules and prompts to produce varied manding: A replication of Seaver and Bourret (2020)

Deficits in social communication and restricted, repetitive patterns of behavior or interests are displayed by individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD; American Psychiatric Association, 2013). Given this, individuals with ASD may engage with a limited variety of reinforcers. Treatments designed to modify the distribution of manding may allow individuals to contact a broad array of reinforcers that could improve the quality of life for individuals with ASD (Seaver & Bourret, 2020). The purpose of the current study was to replicate the results of Seaver and Bourret (2020) by evaluating the effects of manipulating concurrent schedules of reinforcement, alone and with prompts, on the rates of target manding in three boys with ASD, aged 7–9 years, in the United Arab Emirates. All three participants showed increased target manding following intervention. The findings support the use of concurrent reinforcement schedules and prompts as an effective intervention to produce varied manding.     

On objectivity and subjectivity in statistical inference: A response to Mayo

In this paper we respond to the article An Objective Theory of Statistical Testing by D. G. Mayo (1983). We argue that the theory of testing developed by Mayo, NPT*, is neither novel nor objective. We also respond to the claims made by Mayo against Bayesian theory.     

The eyewitness suggestibility effect and memory for source

We examined the possibility that eyewitness suggestibility reflects failures of the processes by which people normally discriminate between memories derived from different sources. To test this hypothesis, misled and control subjects were tested either with a yes/no recognition test or with a "source monitoring" test designed to orient subjects to attend to information about the sources of their memories. The results demonstrate that suggestibility effects obtained with a recognition test can be eliminated by orienting subjects toward thinking about the sources of their memories while taking the test. Our findings indicate that although misled subjects are capable of identifying the source of their memories of misleading suggestions, they nonetheless sometimes misidentify them as memories derived from the original event. The extent to which such errors reflect genuine memory confusions (produced, for example, by lax judgment criteria) or conscious misattributions (perhaps due to demand characteristics) remains to be specified.     

Choice in the repeated-gambles experiment

Humans chose 10 times between two roulette wheels projected on a monitor. During the first trial, the left wheel provided a hypothetical $100 with p = .94, and the right wheel provided $250 with p = .39. A titration procedure adjusted the probability of a $250 win across trials to permit estimation of an indifference point between alternatives. In Experiment 1, intertrial-interval duration (25 vs. 90 s) and whether sessions began with an intertrial interval or a trial were varied in a 2 × 2 design in this risky-choice procedure. Risk aversion (preference for the $100 wheel) increased with intertrial interval but was unaffected by whether sessions began with a trial or an intertrial interval. In Experiment 2, all sessions began with a trial, and subjects were informed that the experiment ended after 10 trials. Intertrial-interval duration had no effect on choice. In Experiment 3, intertrial-interval duration and whether subjects were given $10 or $10,000 before beginning were varied among four groups in a 2 × 2 design. In all other ways, the procedure was unchanged from Experiment 2. Intertrial interval had no effect on choice, but the $10,000 groups showed less risk aversion than the $10 groups. These results can be explained more readily in terms of Kahneman and Tversky's (1984) notion of “framing of the prospect” than in terms of Rachlin, Logue, Gibbon, and Frankel's (1986) behavioral account of risky choice.     

Categories versus groups as explanatory concepts in intergroup relations

In this discussion of papers by Doise (1988) and Tajfel (1982) it is argued that a conceptual distinction should be made between social groups and social categories. A social group can be considered as a ‘dynamic whole’ or social system, characterized by the perceived interdependence among its members, whereas a social category can be defined as a collection of individuals who share at least one attribute in common. This distinction is crucial for the understanding of outgroup favouritism in the minimal intergroup situation, the basic similarity between large scale groupings and face-to-face groups, the difference between group identification and social identity and the issue of categorizations versus attributions in intergroup conflict.     

Set-size effects in primary memory: An age-related capacity limitation?

Set size was varied as a factor in the primary memory paradigm developed by Wickens and colleagues (Wickens, Moody, & Dow, 1981; Wickens, Moody, & Vidulich, 1985). In Experiment 1, using adults and teenagers, no proactive interference (PI) was observed at set size 4, consistent with previous research, but PI was observed at set size 10. In Experiment 2, with adults, PI was observed at set sizes 6, 8, and 10, but not at set size 4. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that sets of more than 4 items overload primary memory, so that some items have to be retrieved from secondary memory. In Experiment 3, 8- to 9-year-olds were used with set sizes of 2 and 4. Proactive interference was observed with the larger, but not with the smaller, set. This suggests that primary memory was overloaded by 4 items at this age, indicating that its capacity increases with age.     

Psychometric data on the Group Embedded Figures Test for a sample of adult learners

The Group Embedded Figures Test (GEFT) was administered to 70 teachers taking a counseling course. Distribution characteristics, reliability, internal consistency, and sex differences are presented.