Effects of Data Noise on Statistical Judgement

People made forecasts from graphically presented time series. Series were sinusoids overlaid by a zero or positive linear trend and a zero, low, moderate, or high level of noise. Forecasting performance was affected by both these variables. However, it did not correlate with ability to identify the trend and correlated significantly with ability to detect the sinusoidal pattern only when series were noise-free. A second experiment showed that the effect of data noise was not influenced by the number of forecasts that people made from a series. These findings are consistent with the view that data noise does not affect the way that forecasts are made but that it impairs them for two reasons. First, it renders the anchor-and-adjust heuristics underlying them less effective. Second, it causes people to add more noise to their judgements in their attempts to make them representative of the data.     

Problem-solving Strategies and Expertise in Engineering Design

A study is reported which focused on the problem-solving strategies employed by expert electronics engineers pursuing a real-world task: integrated-circuit design. Verbal protocol data were analysed so as to reveal aspects of the organisation and sequencing of ongoing design activity. These analyses indicated that the designers were implementing a highly systematic solution-development strategy which deviated only a small degree from a normatively optimal top-down and breadth-first method. Although some of the observed deviation could be described as opportunistic in nature, much of it reflected the rapid depth-first exploration of tentative solution ideas. We argue that switches from a predominantly breadth-first mode of problem solving to depth-first or opportunistic modes may be an important aspect of the expert's strategic knowledge about how to conduct the design process effectively when faced with difficulties, uncertainties, and design impasses.     

Plasticity during childhood and adolescence: innovative approaches to investigating neurocognitive development

Adolescence is a period of profound change, which holds substantial developmental milestones, but also unique challenges to the individual. In this opinion paper, we highlight the potential of combining two recently developed behavioural and neural training techniques (cognitive bias modification and functional magnetic neuroimaging‐based neurofeedback) into a research approach that could help make the most of increased levels of plasticity during childhood and adolescence. We discuss how this powerful combination could be used to explore changing brain–behaviour relationships throughout development in the context of emotion processing, a cognitive domain that exhibits continuous development throughout the second decade of life. By targeting both behaviour and brain response, we would also be in an excellent position to define sensible time windows for enhancing plasticity, thereby allowing for targeted intervention approaches that can help improve emotion processing in both typically and atypically developing populations.     

What clocks tell us about the neural correlates of spatial imagery

We review a series of experimental studies aimed at answering some critical questions about the neural basis of spatial imagery. Our group used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to explore the neural correlates of an online behaviourally controlled spatial imagery task without need for visual presentation—the mental clock task. Subjects are asked to imagine pairs of times that are presented acoustically and to judge at which of the two times the clock hands form the greater angle. The cortical activation elicited by this task was contrasted with that obtained during other visual, perceptual, verbal, and spatial imagery tasks in several block design studies. Moreover, our group performed an event‐related fMRI study on the clock task to investigate the representation of component cognitive processes in spatial imagery. The bulk of our findings demonstrates that cortical areas in the posterior parietal cortex (PPC), along the intraparietal sulcus, are robustly involved in spatial mental imagery and in other tasks requiring spatial transformations. PPC is bilaterally involved in different kinds of spatial judgement. Yet the degree to which right and left PPC are activated in different tasks is a function of task requirements. From event‐related fMRI data we obtained evidence that left and right PPC are activated asynchronously during the clock task and this could reflect their different functional role in subserving cognitive components of visuospatial imagery.     

Some methodological and training/funding perspectives on the future of personality research

This article provides some methodological and training/funding perspectives on the future of personality research. Traditional correlational approaches to personality data have been useful, but approaches that address the data in new ways (e.g., mean structure, variance structure) permit researchers to ask interesting new research questions, particularly of short- and long-term longitudinal data. Advances and issues in the measurement of personality dimensions, types, situations, and biological markers are considered. Given the shrinkage of training programs in personality, new approaches to training are proposed to take advantage of resources across universities. Finally, some potential unanticipated costs for core personality research of the increased emphasis on grant funding at many universities are considered.