The effects of wording on the understanding and use of uncertainty information in a threshold forecasting decision

Many believe that information about small chances of severe weather would be useful to the general public for precautionary action. What is the best way to explain this kind of information to a non‐expert audience? The studies reported here investigated effects of framing (negative vs. positive), format (frequency vs. probability), likelihood (low vs. high) and compatibility (task‐match) on interpretation of verbal expressions of forecast uncertainty and on subsequent forecasting decisions. The crucial factor was the match between the verbal expression and the overall task goal. Errors increased when there was a mismatch between the expression (e.g. winds less than 20 knots) and the task (e.g. post an advisory when winds will exceed 20 knots). However, framing and format had little impact. We conclude that consideration of user expectations arising from the overall task goal is crucial in explaining uncertainty information to a naïve audience. Global expectations overpower other potential effects. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

When 9 is not on the right: Implications from number-form synesthesia

Number-form synesthetes consciously experience numbers in spatially-defined locations. For non-synesthete individuals, a similar association of numbers and space appears in the form of an implicit mental number line as signified by the distance effect–reaction time decreases as the numerical distance between compared numbers increases. In the current experiment, three number-form synesthetes and two different non-synesthete control groups (Hebrew speaking and English speaking) performed a number comparison task. Synesthete participants exhibited a sizeable distance effect only when presented numbers were congruent with their number-form. In contrast, the controls exhibited a distance effect regardless of congruency or presentation type. The findings suggest that: (a) number-form synesthesia impairs the ability to represent numbers in a flexible manner according to task demands; (b) number-form synesthesia is a genuine tangible experience, triggered involuntarily; and (c) the classic mental number line can be more pliable than previously thought and appears to be independent of cultural-lingo direction.     

Mothers’ and Fathers’ Reluctance to Seek Psychological Help for Their Children

We investigated the gap between parents’ willingness to seek help for their children and their willingness to refer other parents to help, and the relationship of this gap to gender. Two hundred and eleven parent couples with elementary-school children reported their willingness to seek help from professional and informal sources for a hypothetical problem with their child, and their willingness to refer a friend’s child with an identical problem to similar help. Attitudes toward help seeking and parental behaviors were also measured. Findings revealed that parents were more willing to refer a friend’s child to professional help than they were to seek such help for their own child, although no gap was found regarding informal help. No gender differences were found regarding willingness to seek help or to refer another, although gender was related to variables that predicted help seeking.     

Task-relevance modulates the effects of peripheral distractors

The current study investigated whether task-relevant information affects performance differently from how information that is not relevant for the task does when presented peripherally and centrally. In three experiments a target appeared inside the focus of attention, whereas a to-be-ignored distractor appeared either in the periphery (Experiments 1 and 2) or at the centre (Experiment 3) of attention. In each trial the distractor carried both task-relevant and irrelevant information. The results confirmed the “task relevance” hypothesis: Task-irrelevant information affected performance only when it appeared at the centre of attention, whereas task-relevant information affected performance when it appeared inside as well as outside the main focus of attention. The current results do not support suggestions that spatial stimuli (e.g., arrows) draw attention automatically regardless of task relevance.     

Relationship between two different measurements of field-dependence and athletic performance of adolescents

Two different measures were used to test field dependence-independence, Group Hidden Figures Test and Portable Rod and Frame Test. The purpose of the study was to compare the advantages of these two measures in differentiating among adolescents who are active in individual and team sports and those who are not. 94 adolescent boys and girls were divided into three groups, as follows: 33 in individual sports, 31 in team sports, and 30 nonathletes. No correlation was found between the two measures. The Portable Rod and Frame Test was the better instrument for distinguishing among the groups. This test requires use of visual vs proprioceptive information to perceive the body's spatial orientation. The Group Hidden Figures Test requires more analytical intelligence. Since there are relationships among awareness of the body, spatial orientation, and physical activity of athletes, the Portable Rod and Frame Test seems to be more applicable to the task of distinguishing between and among athletes and nonathletes.     

Reducing probabilistic weather forecasts to the worst-case scenario: anchoring effects

Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the worst-case scenario (1 boundary of the 80% predictive interval), demonstrated biased understanding of future weather conditions compared with those given both bounds or no uncertainty information. We argue that this was due to an anchoring effect on numeric estimates, which were closer to the worst-case scenario than was warranted and increased linearly as the anchor became more extreme. In many situations tested here, anchoring in numeric estimates also extended to subsequent binary decisions, leading participants with the worst-case scenario to take action more often than did other participants. These results suggest that worst-case scenario forecasts can mislead the user. They appear to convince people that wind speeds will be higher and temperatures will be lower than what are indicated by the forecast. In addition, participants systematically "corrected" the forecast they were given. This effect was most prominent in the condition in which no uncertainty was provided, suggesting that people feel compelled to take uncertainty into account, even when it is not acknowledged by the forecast. Both the anchoring and correction biases were least evident when both bounds were provided, suggesting that balanced uncertainty leads to the best understanding of future weather conditions.     

Sleep patterns and sleep disruptions in school-age children

This study assessed the sleep patterns, sleep disruptions, and sleepiness of school-age children. Sleep patterns of 140 children (72 boys and 68 girls; 2nd-, 4th-, and 6th-grade students) were evaluated with activity monitors (actigraphs). In addition, the children and their parents completed complementary sleep questionnaires and daily reports. The findings reflected significant age differences, indicating that older children have more delayed sleep onset times and increased reported daytime sleepiness. Girls were found to spend more time in sleep and to have an increased percentage of motionless sleep. Fragmented sleep was found in 18% of the children. No age differences were found in any of the sleep quality measures. Scores on objective sleep measures were associated with subjective reports of sleepiness. Family stress, parental age, and parental education were related to the child's sleep-wake measures.     

Eight-dimensional methodology for innovative thinking about the case and ethics of the mount graham,large binocular telescope project

This paper introduces the Eight Dimensional Methodology for Innovative Thinking (the Eight Dimensional Methodology), for innovative problem solving, as a unified approach to case analysis that builds on comprehensive problem solving knowledge from industry, business, marketing, math, science, engineering, technology, arts, and daily life. It is designed to stimulate innovation by quickly generating unique “out of the box” unexpected and high quality solutions. It gives new insights and thinking strategies to solve everyday problems faced in the workplace, by helping decision makers to see otherwise obscure alternatives and solutions. Daniel Raviv, the engineer who developed the Eight Dimensional Methodology, and paper co-author, technology ethicist Rosalyn Berne, suggest that this tool can be especially useful in identifying solutions and alternatives for particular problems of engineering, and for the ethical challenges which arise with them. First, the Eight Dimensional Methodology helps to elucidate how what may appear to be a basic engineering problem also has ethical dimensions. In addition, it offers to the engineer a methodology for penetrating and seeing new dimensions of those problems. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the Eight Dimensional Methodology as an analytical tool for thinking about ethical challenges to engineering, the paper presents the case of the construction of the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) on Mount Graham in Arizona. Analysis of the case offers to decision makers the use of the Eight Dimensional Methodology in considering alternative solutions for how they can proceed in their goals of exploring space. It then follows that same process through the second stage of exploring the ethics of each of those different solutions. The LBT project pools resources from an international partnership of universities and research institutes for the construction and maintenance of a highly sophisticated, powerful new telescope. It will soon mark the erection of the world’s largest and most powerful optical telescope, designed to see fine detail otherwise visible only from space. It also represents a controversial engineering project that is being undertaken on land considered to be sacred by the local, native Apache people. As presented, the case features the University of Virginia, and its challenges in consideration of whether and how to join the LBT project consortium. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the “Ethics and Social Responsibility in Engineering and Technology” meeting, New Orlenas, 2003 and at the American Society of Engineering Education (ASEE) annual Meeting, 2003.     

An Anatomy of Political Beliefs: A Study of Their Centrality, Confidence, Contents, and Epistemic Authority

The present study is a simultaneous investigation of the contents of political beliefs and their characteristics among Israeli students. In addition, it examines their perceived use of information sources. The results indicate that political beliefs regarding the Israeli-Arab conflicts are organized systematically around the dove/hawk dimension. Also, a positive relationship was found between centrality of beliefs and confidence in them; between well-defined political identification and centrality and confidence; and between agreement with the beliefs and confidence. Finally, the results show that the perceived use of information sources is related to political identification. The performed investigation demonstrates the importance of combining the study of the contents of beliefs with that of their characteristics, since the latter have important implications for understanding individuals' cognitive, affective, and behavioral reactions.