Effects of Reasons Analysis on the Accuracy of Predicting Basketball Games1

It is argued that analyzing and listing reasons can lead to poorer predictions because reasoners either access information inappropriate to the task or have difficulty integrating the information they do bring to mind. To test this hypothesis, self-described basketball experts predicted the outcomes of actual basketball games in a national tournament. Half of the participants were asked to analyze and list reasons for their predictions before making them, and half were told explicitly not to analyze their reasons. Compared to nonreasoners, reasoners predicted fewer winners of the games and predicted margins of victory that differed more from both the actual margins of victory and the margins of victory predicted by experts. The relationship between expertise and reasons analysis, and the implications of the results for other domains of prediction are discussed.     

Responsiveness of pre- and non-delinquents to incentive aspects of a reinforcing event

A learning task, a six-position modification of a Fellows (1967) sequence, was used to examine the differences in responsiveness to symbolic and tangible incentives with 24 pre-delinquent and 25 non-delinquent 15-yr.-old boys. Under the low-incentive condition, only the symbolic incentive was available while under the high-incentive condition a symbolic and material reinforcer was employed. The high-incentive condition had no significant effect on the non-delinquents but did significantly affect the delinquents. Also, the high-incentive delinquent group performed similarly to both non-delinquent groups. Recommendations for research are given.     

A monte carlo study of kruskal's variance based measure on stress

Researchers in the past ten years have studied various parameters involved in nonmetric multidimensional scaling by utilizing Monte Carlo procedures. This paper develops stress distributions using Kruskal's second stress formula based upon a null hypothesis of equal likelihood in the ranking of a set of proximities. These distributions can serve to determine whether a set of data has other than random structure.This research was supported in part by a grant from the Baruch College Scholar Assistance program.     

Majority reaction to shifting and stable attitudinal deviates

Female undergraduates, in groups of four, voted several times on appropriate treatment for a delinquent, using an electrical signalling device. Two simulatedgroup members consistently agreed with subjects' initial position. A third simulated member (target) exhibited one of nine response patterns. In six movement conditions (which formed a 2 × 3 design), the target (a) gradually moved a short distance toward or away from modal group opinion and (b) manifested high, medium, or low net agreement with the majority position. In three stable conditions, the target consistently (a) agreed with modal opinion, (b) disagreed, or (c) took a neutralposition. In movement conditions, the target was evaluated significantly more favourably in the toward than in the away condition and in the high agreement than in the medium and low agreement conditions. In stable conditions, the agreeing target was liked significantly better than the neutral and disagreeing targets. The target's response pattern also affected subjects' attributions about the target's motives, communication to the target (in notes interspersed between votes), and opinion change. Results were discussed in terms of previous research dealing with majority reaction to moving and stable attitudinal deviates.     

A prospective naturalistic study of the impact of an intensive medical treatment on the social behavior of child and adolescent cancer patients

The impact of intensive chemotherapy and prolonged hospitalization on the social behavior of child and adolescent cancer patients was assessed. Twenty-three patients, aged 18 months to 21 years, were observed while they received chemotherapy in a protected environment or in a regular hospital room. Single-subject analyses were used to examine changes on six behaviors in relation to changes in physiological status. Fourteen patients showed significant change in the frequency of at least one behavior. Play and sleep were the behaviors most likely to change. The changes began to occur as patients experienced the systemic toxic effects of the drugs, although a dissipation of drug toxicity generally was not accompanied by a corresponding behavior change. The findings are discussed in relation to age-developmental and interindividual heterogeneity in response to treatment.     

Uncertainty, as defined by the contingency between environmental events, and the adrenocortical response of the rat to electric shock

The pituitary-adrenal system is thought to be sensitive to the degree of uncertainty in a situation. In addition, there is some question whether the pituitary-adrenal system can be conditioned in a Pavlovian sense. Three experiments are reported here. The first and third sought to define uncertainty in terms of conditioned stimulus-unconditioned stimulus (CB-US) and US-US contingencies, which vary the amount of information that can be used to predict the occurrence of discrete shocks. The second experiment examined the possibility that the adrenocortical system was subject to the laws of Pavlovian conditioning, by using a conditioned emotional response paradigm. The results showed that the magnitude of the Pituitary-adrenal response varied in a curvilinear manner along the dimension of uncertainty. Very low and very high degrees of uncertainty resulted in greater corticosterone elevations than did moderate levels. No evidence for Pavlovian conditioning of the adrencortical system was found, although behavioral measures showed fear conditioning. The data presented were supportive of the hypothesis that the pituitary-adrenal response reflects the operation of an arousal system.     

Brief report: Compliance in the classroom: Using the „thumbs up”︁ procedure to increase student compliance to teacher requests

This study assessed the effectiveness of a program designed to increase compliance with teacher commands in a regular 5th grade math class. A reversal design (A-B-B'-A-B') was employed. The teacher used a discriminative stimulus to signal the students as to the availability of an opportunity to earn a point towards a reinforcer. To receive the point the students were required to return the signal and initiate compliance. The entire class was involved in the program; however, data were recorded on two students, one identified by the teacher as noncompliant; the other served as a control. The results indicated that the program was effective in increasing initiation of compliance to teacher commands. However, serious questions were raised about the generalizability of such a program.