Probability logic,logical probability,and inductive support

This paper seeks to defend the following conclusions: The program advanced by Carnap and other necessarians for probability logic has little to recommend it except for one important point. Credal probability judgments ought to be adapted to changes in evidence or states of full belief in a principled manner in conformity with the inquirer’s confirmational commitments—except when the inquirer has good reason to modify his or her confirmational commitment. Probability logic ought to spell out the constraints on rationally coherent confirmational commitments. In the case where credal judgments are numerically determinate confirmational commitments correspond to Carnap’s credibility functions mathematically represented by so—called confirmation functions. Serious investigation of the conditions under which confirmational commitments should be changed ought to be a prime target for critical reflection. The necessarians were mistaken in thinking that confirmational commitments are immune to legitimate modification altogether. But their personalist or subjectivist critics went too far in suggesting that we might dispense with confirmational commitments. There is room for serious reflection on conditions under which changes in confirmational commitments may be brought under critical control. Undertaking such reflection need not become embroiled in the anti inductivism that has characterized the work of Popper, Carnap and Jeffrey and narrowed the focus of students of logical and methodological issues pertaining to inquiry.     

Under the Corporate Radar: Examining Insider Business Cybercrime Victimization through an Application of Routine Activities Theory

ABSTRACT

Cybercrime is recognized as one of the top threats to UK economic security. On a daily basis, the computer networks of businesses suffer security breaches. A less explored dimension of this problem is cybercrimes committed by insiders. This paper provides a criminological analysis of corporate insider victimization. It begins by presenting reviews of insider criminal threats and routine activities theory as applied to cybercrime. Analysis of the nationally representative Cardiff University UK Business Cybercrime Survey then informs statistical models that predict the likelihood of businesses suffering insider cyber victimization, using routine activities and guardianship measures as predictors.     

Epistemic closure under deductive inference: what is it and can we afford it?

The idea that knowledge can be extended by inference from what is known seems highly plausible. Yet, as shown by familiar preface paradox and lottery-type cases, the possibility of aggregating uncertainty casts doubt on its tenability. We show that these considerations go much further than previously recognized and significantly restrict the kinds of closure ordinary theories of knowledge can endorse. Meeting the challenge of uncertainty aggregation requires either the restriction of knowledge-extending inferences to single premises, or eliminating epistemic uncertainty in known premises. The first strategy, while effective, retains little of the original idea—conclusions even of modus ponens inferences from known premises are not always known. We then look at the second strategy, inspecting the most elaborate and promising attempt to secure the epistemic role of basic inferences, namely Timothy Williamson’s safety theory of knowledge. We argue that while it indeed has the merit of allowing basic inferences such as modus ponens to extend knowledge, Williamson’s theory faces formidable difficulties. These difficulties, moreover, arise from the very feature responsible for its virtue- the infallibilism of knowledge.     

Homicide as conflict resolution

Homicide research at societal, subcultural, and interaction levels of analysis has not produced a comprehensive model for the killer‐victim transaction. But rules for organizing the experience of homicide can be generated from Simmel's definition of conflict as a “resolution of divergent dualisms” (1955:11). A model of homicide as a form of conflict resolution is demonstrated through interviews with a random sample of 35 adjudicated killers. Respondents’ definitions of homicide correspond to the conflict resolution model, with their verbal accounts, their socio‐psychological orientation to the victim at the point of the killing, their method of killing, and the general dynamics of the killer‐victim transaction, all varying as a resolution of a distinctive relationship, either between lovers, adversaries, or strangers. The situational definition casts homicide within the realm of normal behavior and at the same time delineates its distinctive features.     

Homicide and suicide: Structure and process

This article brings together major new findings on homicide and suicide in order to contribute to an awareness of the similarities and differences between the two at both the structural and process levels of analysis, to make causal inferences, and to stimulate future research. Both homicide and suicide are processes of fixation on conflict resolution. The process of conflict resolution in turn is conditioned by structural disorganization. The process of fixation is conditioned by structural segregation, taking the particular form of estrangement, self‐reliance, and partial isolation. Intentional suicide, as distinct from intentional homicide, involves a negative fixation on self resulting primarily from the physical or psychological unavailability of a victim. The lack of a victim leaves the would‐be suicide feeling overwhelmed by the emotion that he or she fears. This process is conditioned by age and societal centralization, which together deny opportunities for homicide and detract from the kind of social support that might make life seem worthwhile.     

Individual Therapy via the Phenomenon of Hope for Treating Chronic and Complex PTSD

Evidence-based treatment (EBT) supports different types of cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for treating post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Yet, a growing body of evidence shows a high therapy dropout rate and non-response rate among PTSD patients, especially patients with complex PTSD. A different, short-term therapeutic approach is therefore needed which combines CBT and psychodynamic therapy (PDT) because it is better for patients with chronic and/or complex PTSD to work with clarified stages and an end of treatment in mind. The patient's mental structure is conceptualized as a continuum, and functional problems are regarded as stemming from cognitive structures and unresolved developmental conflict. The five phases of the phenomenon of hope model proposed in an earlier article—a connection phase; an agency and pathway phase (developing a goal-oriented decision-making pattern and learning to plan toward goal achievement); a reconstruction phase; a phase of processing the conflict characteristic of PTSD by utilizing the natural power of hope; and a summary and separation phase—advance a short-term therapy that combines CBT and PDT techniques. This integrated therapy is based on notes that were kept relating to the case study of a chronic PTSD patient.     

Public Attitudes Toward the Use of Bioremediation to Clean Up Toxic Contamination

Bioremediation is an innovative approach to environmental management that uses microorganisms or plants to clean up toxic contamination in the environment. This research examines public attitudes toward the use of bioremediation at 2 sites in California: an urban site (Avila Beach) and a natural site (Guadalupe Dunes). At both sites, the study participants preferred excavation of the contaminated soil to bioremediation. The survey results help to explain the reasons why there is limited support for the use of bioremediation.     

Factual and Affective/Evaluative Recall of Pretrial Publicity: Their Relative Influence on Juror Reasoning and Verdict in a Simulated Fraud Trial1

This study investigated the relationship between recall of real‐life pretrial publicity (PTP) in a high‐profile fraud case and subsequent reasoning about the trial evidence and verdict decisions. Tracking the reasoning and verdict judgments of 50 mock jurors during a video simulation of the trial material, the effect of factual recall of PTP was compared with recall indicating an affective or evaluative response from the PTP. Affective/evaluative recall, but not factual recall, was significantly associated with anti‐defendant reasoning and confidence in guilt. This effect was partially mediated by reasoning developed during the course of evidence presentation. The potentially prejudicial effect of affective/evaluative recall of PTP is discussed in terms of it activating an explanatory structure that frames evidence interpretation.     

A pragmatic argument against equal weighting

Synthese - We present a minimal pragmatic restriction on the interpretation of the weights in the “Equal Weight View” (and, more generally, in the “Linear Pooling” view)...