Knowing against the odds

We present and discuss a counterexample to the following plausible principle: if you know that a coin is fair, and for all you know it is going to be flipped, then for all you know it will land tails.     

Knowledge and epistemic necessity

Claims of the form ??I know P and it might be that not-P?? tend to sound odd. One natural explanation of this oddity is that the conjuncts are semantically incompatible: in its core epistemic use, ??Might P?? is true in a speaker??s mouth only if the speaker does not know that not-P. In this paper I defend this view against an alternative proposal that has been advocated by Trent Dougherty and Patrick Rysiew and elaborated upon in Jeremy Fantl and Matthew McGrath??s recent Knowledge in an Uncertain World.     

Three Models of Sequential Belief Updating on Uncertain Evidence

Jeffrey updating is a natural extension of Bayesian updating to cases where the evidence is uncertain. But, the resulting degrees of belief appear to be sensitive to the order in which the uncertain evidence is acquired, a rather un-Bayesian looking effect. This order dependence results from the way in which basic Jeffrey updating is usually extended to sequences of updates. The usual extension seems very natural, but there are other plausible ways to extend Bayesian updating that maintain order-independence. I will explore three models of sequential updating, the usual extension and two alternatives. I will show that the alternative updating schemes derive from extensions of the usual rigidity requirement, which is at the heart of Jeffrey updating. Finally, I will establish necessary and sufficient conditions for order-independent updating, and show that extended rigidity is closely related to these conditions.     

Blocking Definitions of Materialism

It is often thought that materialism about themind can be clarified using the concept of supervenience. But there is a difficulty. Amaterialist should admit the possibility ofghosts and thus should allow that a world mightduplicate the physical character of our worldand enjoy, in addition, immaterial beings withmental properties. So materialists can't claimthat every world that is physicallyindistinguishable from our world is alsomentally indistinguishable; and this is wellknown. What is less understood are thedifferent ways that immaterial add-ons can maketrouble for supervenience-theoreticformulations of materialism. In this paper, Ishall present a problematic kind of add-on thathas been ignored and look at threesupervenience-theoretic attempts to formulatematerialism in that light.     

CONTINGENT REINFORCEMENT FOR BENZODIAZEPINE-FREE URINES: EVALUATION OF A DRUG ABUSE TREATMENT INTERVENTION

This study evaluated contingent reinforcement for benzodiazepine-free urines as a therapeutic intervention for promoting reduced use of supplemental benzodiazepine drugs among methadone maintenance outpatients. Ten methadone maintenance patients were selected for participation on the basis of positive urinalysis results. During a 12-week intervention period these patients were offered clinic privileges, including monetary payments or methadone take-home doses, contingent on benzodiazepine negative urinalysis test results. Eight of ten participants responded to the intervention with at least 2.5 weeks of consecutive clean urines. An increase in benzodiazepine-negative tests during the contingent reinforcement period was significant for the group as a whole. The results suggest that more widespread application of contingent reinforcement procedures may be warranted in drug abuse treatment clinics.     

The family of later life: Strategies and interventions

The concerns of the family of later life have only recently become evident. Unlike other age groups, when problems of an elder surface, they almost always involve other family members. Family members tend to become highly involved, alter their lives, and offer support. All this provides a ready condition for family pathology to assert itself. Accordingly, three common strategies used by families of later life are presented and discussed. The effect on the whole family system is stressed. Also, two therapeutic interventions are presented. Since problems related to elders are particularly resistant to therapy, these two interventions are designed for well family members. Case material is presented.