The psychological side of Hempel’s paradox of confirmation

People often test hypotheses about two variables (X andY), each with two levels (e.g.,X1 andX2). When testing “IfX1, thenY1,” observing the conjunction ofX1 andY1 is overwhelmingly perceived as more supportive than observing the conjunction ofX2 andY2, although both observations support the hypothesis. Normatively, theX2&Y2 observation provides stronger support than theX1&Y1 observation if the former is rarer. Because participants in laboratory settings typically test hypotheses they are unfamiliar with, previous research has not examined whether participants are sensitive to the rarity of observations. The experiment reported here showed that participants were sensitive to rarity, even judging a rareX2&Y2 observation more supportive than a commonX1&Y1 observation under certain conditions. Furthermore, participants’ default strategy of judgingX1&Y1 observations more informative might be generally adaptive because hypotheses usually regard rare events.     

Body image,self-esteem,and depression-proneness: Closing the gender gap

Gender differences in body image and related correlates have received increasing attention in recent psychological research. The purposes of the present study were to further examine gender differences in body image and its relationship to depression-proneness and self-esteem. The Body Cathexis Scale, the Depression-Proneness Inventory, the Janis-Field Feelings of Inadequacy Scale, and a background questionnaire were administered to 176 female and male undergraduates at a small Midwestern college. Responses were analyzed by gender and by participants' perceived and actual weight. Findings were consistent with sociocultural messages, and showed a pervasive preoccupation with weight and appearance for both men and women. The importance of considering weight, environment, and other demographic data when studying body image is discussed.All authors contributed equally. Authorship order was determined by coin toss.We gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Laurie Phillips in the data collection for this study.     

Brief counseling to reduce AIDS risk in intravenous drug users and their sexual partners: Preliminary results

Intravenous drug users (N = 88) and their sexual partners (N = 45) were randomly assigned to either a brief counseling intervention or an information-brochure only condition (aimed at reducing behavioral risk for HIV infection). At 10 day follow-up, intravenous drug users exposed to brief counseling were more knowledgeable about risk behaviors, and reported higher levels of self-efficacy and communication skill, and more frequent use of condoms and sterilisation of needles. At 90 day follow-up, intravenous drug users were more accepting of guidelines to reduce sex-related risk and reported greater self-efficacy in relation to drugs. Sexual partners who received brief counseling showed a small reduction in unprotected sex (at 90-day follow-up), while those receiving brochures were slightly less likely to use condoms. Methodological problems of the study are discussed.     

A short-term group therapy model for treatment of adult female survivors of childhood incest

Childhood incest has been experienced by a minimum of one million American women. Because of the dynamic of secrecy in these families and society's discomfort with the issue, disclosure frequently does not take place until adulthood. A treatment modality for adult women following disclosure of a childhood incest experience has been devised. A short-term semi-structured group model has been chosen which creates an atmosphere of rapid cohesion and helps participants broaden their identity beyond that of victim. This paper reports participants' demographic and historical data as well as thematic content and group evaluative data from the first nine such groups conducted in a major health maintenance organization in the Boston area. Findings suggest that childhood incest has widespread and long-lasting effects on women's functioning, including ability to trust and form relationships, emotional functioning and self-esteem, and the ability to protect self and children from victimization. The group was felt to be extremely valuable by the majority of participants and was experienced by many as the first place they ever found safety, unconditional nurturance, and a sense of belonging. Other findings include the repetition of incest over generations, the nonresponsiveness of adults in cases where disclosure had taken place in childhood, and the importance of an empathic yet well-bounded therapist.     

Gender and the self-presentation of academic achievement

Two experiments were conducted in which first-year male and female subjects (75% white; 25% minorities) at a highly selective liberal arts college predicted their first-semester grade point averages (GPAs). The first experiment varied whether predictions were given publicly or privately when an incentive for accuracy was either present or absent. Whereas the actual GPAs obtained by women did not differ from those obtained by men, women predicted that they would receive lower GPAs than men predicted, but only in the public condition. Whether incentive was present or absent did not affect predictions. The second experiment varied whether predictions were given publicly or privately as well as the perceived achievement of the experimenter. Once again, women's actual GPAs did not differ from men's. However, women predicted that they would receive lower GPAs than men predicted, but only when their estimates were given publicly to a low-ability experimenter. Although previous research has concluded that gender differences on performance estimates is attributable to a lack of confidence among women, these results suggest that the gender difference may be (at least partly) attributable to self-presentational style. It appears that women in this study adopted a modest self-presentational style that was motivated by attempts to protect the self-esteem of the experimenter.We are especially grateful to Rob Abel, David McGill, and Melinda Varn for their help in data collection.     

Grammatical priming of inflected nouns

In normal linguistic usage, the inflected nouns of Sorbo-Croatian are usually preceded by prepositions that help to specify which particular grammatical case is intended and to stress the noun’s function in the sentence. In a lexical decision task, it was demonstrated that lexical decision times to nouns in a grammatical case that demands a preposition were faster when the preposition was appropriate to the case than when it was either inappropriate to the case or a nonsense syllable. This result lends support to the intuition that priming can occur among sentential components.     

A Field Study of Conflict in Psychological Exchange: The California Taxpayers' Revolt

The present research applied an exchange analysis to the confrontation between California renters and landlords after the passage of a property tax initiative (Proposition 13). The inability of renters to leave the exchange intensified perceived inequities. As a result, both parties sought solutions to perceived inequities by changing the existing relationship. As predicted, renters and landlords disagreed on the relative importance of exchange inputs and the actions needed to restore equity to their relationship. Relationships examined were consistent with a psychological contract in which renters were blocked from leaving. This interpretation suggests that changes in the intrinsic nature of the psychological contract may be needed to avoid future conflict.     

Swine Flu: A Field Study of Self-Serving Biases

Self-serving biases were examined as an explanation for swine flu inoculation behavior. Subjects who had recently had the opportunity to obtain the shot were surveyed by questionnaire. As predicted, most persons held biased beliefs that their own health was superior to that of others. Those getting or intending to get the shot had less health bias, had recently experienced a confidence-shaking event, and felt that the shot might make a difference in their health. The results are seen as having implications both for self-serving bias research and for disease control.     

Markov processes in learning theory

Consideration is given mathematical problems arising in two learning theories—one developed by Bush and Mosteller, the other developed by Estes. The theory of Bush and Mosteller leads to a class of Markov processes which have been studied in considerable detail (see [1] and [7]). The Estes model can be treated as a Markov chain, i.e., a Markov process with a finite number of states. For an important class of special cases, it is shown that the Bush-Mosteller model is, in a sense, a limiting form of the Estes model. The limiting probability distributions are derived for the cases treated in both models.This research was supported by the National Science Foundation through a grant given to the Dartmouth Mathematics Project.