How do we evaluate future gambles? Experimental evidence on path dependency in risky intertemporal choice

This study reports three experiments which demonstrate path dependency in risky intertemporal choice. Consider a lottery to be resolved and paid in a future time period. One can obtain the present value of this lottery in three different ways: (1) eliciting directly the present certainty equivalent (CE) of the future lottery (direct path); (2) eliciting the future CE and then discounting this amount to the present (risk‐time path); and (3) eliciting the present value of the risky prospect and then determining the CE of this current lottery (time‐risk path). Standard rational choice models such as the discounted expected utility model, assume a multiplicative model, where all three methods mentioned above would yield the same value. We conducted three studies to examine if this is the case: Experiments 1 and 2 were based on a set of matching‐task questions and Experiment 3 used a process‐tracing design to analyze the natural sequence of decision making by the subjects. These three studies show that the evaluation of future gambles is path‐dependent. The present values elicited under the time‐risk and direct paths are, on average, higher than those reported under the risk‐time path. In addition, we found evidence for a two‐stage evaluation of risky future prospects: When evaluating a future gamble, individuals first assess the present value of the gamble (time discounting) and then they determine a certainty equivalent (probability discounting). Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments

Decision makers and forecasters often receive advice from different sources including human experts and statistical methods. This research examines, in the context of stock price forecasting, how the apparent source of the advice affects the attention that is paid to it when the mode of delivery of the advice is identical for both sources. In Study 1, two groups of participants were given the same advised point and interval forecasts. One group was told that these were the advice of a human expert and the other that they were generated by a statistical forecasting method. The participants were then asked to adjust forecasts they had previously made in light of this advice. While in both cases the advice led to improved point forecast accuracy and better calibration of the prediction intervals, the advice which apparently emanated from a statistical method was discounted much more severely. In Study 2, participants were provided with advice from two sources. When the participants were told that both sources were either human experts or both were statistical methods, the apparent statistical‐based advice had the same influence on the adjusted estimates as the advice that appeared to come from a human expert. However when the apparent sources of advice were different, much greater attention was paid to the advice that apparently came from a human expert. Theories of advice utilization are used to identify why the advice of a human expert is likely to be preferred to advice from a statistical method. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Relationship Between Perceived Parental Attitudes and Shyness among Turkish Youth: Fear of Negative Evaluation and Self-esteem as Mediators

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between three perceived parental attitudes and shyness, testing self-esteem and fear of negative evaluation as mediators. The study used a total of 492 undergraduate students in Turkey. Data was collected through measures of shyness, fear of negative evaluation, self-esteem, and perceived parental attitudes. The proposed model was estimated using path analysis. Goodness of fit statistics showed that the model fit the data well. Results indicated that parental acceptance/involvement predicted self-esteem; perceived parental strictness/supervision predicted fear of negative evaluation; and perceived parental psychological autonomy predicted self-esteem. Self-esteem partially mediated the relationship between parental acceptance/involvement and shyness, whereas it fully mediated the relationship between parental psychological autonomy and shyness. Fear of negative evaluation fully mediated the relationship between parental strictness/supervision and shyness. In addition, the relationship between self-esteem and shyness was partially mediated by fear of negative evaluation. The findings provided evidence for the propositions that parental attitudes are important in the development of self-image and fears of rejection which result in the experience of shyness.     

Relationship of seat belt use to health and driver behaviors

Seat belts are effective safety devices for protecting car occupants from injuries and fatalities in road vehicle accidents. Seat belt use has been reported to be related to some health and driving-related behaviors. The aim of the present study was to investigate to what degree seat belt use can be seen as health behavior or driver behavior. Participants were 252 licensed Turkish drivers (180 males, 72 females) with the mean age of 30.8 (SD = 12.15). A questionnaire including questions related to health-related behaviors, driver behaviors and seat belt use was used. Results of factor analysis showed that seat belt use in front seat grouped with driver behaviors (e.g., driving errors and violations) but not with health-related behaviors (e.g., healthy diet and sports participation). Regression analyses showed that seat belt use in back seat; and, regular walking and adequate sleep were positively related to seat belt use in front seat, whereas being male, driving errors and smoking frequency were negatively related to seat belt use in front seat. The present findings suggest that seat belt use can be considered in the context of driver behaviors such as driving errors and violations.     

动态面孔表情优势效应的心理机制及神经基础

动态面孔表情优势效应是指较静态面孔表情而言, 个体在识别动态的面孔表情时表现出较好的识别能力。动态面孔表情优势效应的心理机制主要涉及增强的构形加工、补偿角色和面孔模仿能力。此外, 该优势效应的神经网络则由核心的神经网络和扩展的神经网络组成, 前者主要负责早期的知觉编码和刺激的运动加工, 而后者与个体的面孔模仿能力、刺激的动态表征等有关。今后的研究应集中在完善延伸的神经网络、拓展其心理机制; 开展动态面孔表情优势效应的发展性研究; 考察面孔表情的刚性运动特征; 注重在虚拟现实环境下研究动态面孔表情的优势效应。     

Recollective experience in odor recognition: Influences of adult age and familiarity

We examined recollective experience in odor memory as a function of age, intention to learn, and familiarity. Young and older adults studied a set of familiar and unfamiliar odors with incidental or intentional encoding instructions. At recognition, participants indicated whether their response was based on explicit recollection (remembering), a feeling of familiarity (knowing), or guessing. The results indicated no age-related differences in the distribution of experiential responses for unfamiliar odors. By contrast, for familiar odors the young demonstrated more explicit recollection than the older adults, who produced more know and guess responses. Intention to learn was unrelated to recollective experience. In addition, the observed age differences in remember responses for familiar odors were eliminated when odor naming was statistically controlled. This suggests that age-related deficits in activating specific odor knowledge (i.e., odor names) play an important role for age differences in recollective experience of olfactory information.     

MAX EITINGON'S RISE AND DECLINE: THE BERLIN YEARS

Max Eitingon's main achievement was the foundation of the Berlin psychoanalytic Poliklinik that served both as an outpatient center and a training institute. Another area of his responsibility was the Verlag, the International Psychoanalytic Press. By 1926, he occupied several leading positions, including presidency of the International Psychoanalytical Association and editorship of the major psychoanalytic journal of the time. The basis of his power was his personal relationship with Freud, as well as his monetary wealth, which he put into the service of the Freudian cause. By 1932, he had suffered an overall setback, however, with the Berlin Institute losing its best teachers, the Verlag barely escaping bankruptcy, and the journal's editorship returning to Vienna.