Overcoming the winner's curse: an adaptive learning perspective

The winner's curse phenomenon refers to the fact that the winner in a common value auction, in order to actually win the auction, is likely to have overestimated the item's value and consequently is likely to gain less than expected and may even lose (i.e., it is said to be “cursed”). Past research, using the “Acquiring a company” task has shown that people do not overcome this bias even after they receive extensive feedback. We suggest that the persistence of the winner's curse is due to a combination of two factors: variability in the environment that leads to ambiguous feedback (i.e., choices and outcomes are only partially correlated) and the tendency of decision makers to learn adaptively. We show in an experiment that by reducing the variance in the feedback, performance can be significantly improved. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Locus of control, self-control, and family income as predictors of young children's mathematics and science scores

Locus of control, self-control, and family income were investigated as possible predictors of 138 young children's mathematics and science scores. The children, 60 boys and 78 girls, ranging from 4 to 8 years of age (M = 5.4, SD = 1.3) were administered the Stephens-Delys Reinforcement Contingency Interview Scale, the Self-control Rating Scale, the Comprehensive Mathematics Inventory, and a science test based on the work of D. K. Dickinson. Analysis showed mathematics scores were positively related to income, locus of control, and science scores. Mathematics and science scores were negatively related to lack of self-control. Also, science scores were positively related to locus of control. Multiple regression analysis with mathematics as the dependent variable indicated income had the greatest predictive value followed by self-control and locus of control. The multiple regression model of science was also significant, with locus of control having the greatest influence followed by self-control.     

Toward international normative reference data for the comprehensive system

We build on the work of all the authors contributing to this Special Supplement by summarizing findings across their samples of data, and we also draw on samples published elsewhere. Using 21 samples of adult data from 17 countries we create a composite set of internationally-based reference means and standard deviations from which we compute T-scores for each sample. Figures illustrate how the scores in each sample are distributed and how the samples compare across variables in eight Rorschach Comprehensive System (CS; Exner, 2003) clusters. The adult samples from around the world are generally quite similar, and thus we encourage clinicians to integrate the composite international reference values into their clinical interpretation of protocols. However, the 31 child and adolescent samples from 5 countries produce unstable and often quite extreme values on many scores. Until the factors contributing to the variability among these samples are more fully understood, we discourage clinicians from using many CS scores to make nomothetic, score-based inferences about psychopathology in children and adolescents.     

Introduction to the JPA special supplement on International Reference Samples for the Rorschach Comprehensive System

This Introduction provides an overview to the JPA Special Supplement on International Reference Samples for the Rorschach Comprehensive System (CS; Exner, 2001). It contains a history of this project and a table including all of the lead authors, their country and the type and size of their sample. Suggestions for conducting this type of research are offered, including information on normative vs. nonpatient samples, inclusion/exclusion criteria, the use of collateral instruments, and concerns relative to representativeness. Reliability and coding concerns are addressed, and information on the Popular response in Japan are reviewed. Finally, trends within and across the data are highlighted.     

The Relevant Equivalence Property

The pure implicational and the multiplicative fragments of arange of propositional relevant (and other) logics are shownto have the property that any two formulas equivalent in sucha logic are constructed from exactly the same propositionalvariables – as opposed to merely having (as the definitionof relevance itself would require) some propositional variablein common.     

Psychological contracts and their implications for commitment: A feature-based approach

Two studies were conducted to examine the link between employee perceptions of the psychological contract and their affective and normative commitments to the organization. The authors adapt a new approach to the study of psychological contracts by developing a generalizable measure of contract features (e.g., scope; time frame). In Study 1 (N = 301), the authors predicted and found that employees’ perceptions of the contract’s features contributed beyond perceptions of contract type (i.e., transactional; relational) and fulfillment to the prediction of affective and normative commitment. In Study 2 (N = 147), the features measure was refined and results from the first study were largely replicated. In both studies, affective and normative commitment were greater when employees viewed the contract as broad, trust-based, equal, negotiated, tangible, and long-term, and weaker when they saw it as unequal, imposed, and short-term. We also found evidence for patterns of features that correspond to transactional and relational contracts, as well as to recently proposed balanced contracts and I-Deals. Implications for theory and the management of psychological contracts are discussed.     

Women's Caregiving Careers and Retirement Financial Insecurity

Providing the essential care for children and aged relatives has immediate and long‐term financial consequences for women, particularly financial insecurity in retirement. Women's caregiving careers are examined in relationship to the impact on retirement. The need for career and retirement education and counseling aimed at women who assume caregiving roles is addressed.     

Basic Infobase Change

Generalisations of theory change involving arbitrary sets of wffs instead of belief sets have become known as base change. In one view, a base should be thought of as providing more structure to its generated belief set, and can be used to determine the theory change operation associated with a base change operation. In this paper we extend a proposal along these lines by Meyer et al. We take an infobase as a finite sequence of wffs, with each element in the sequence being seen as an independently obtained bit of information, and define appropriate infobase change operations. The associated theory change operations satisfy the AGM postulates for theory change. Since an infobase change operation produces a new infobase, it allows for iterated infobase change. We measure iterated infobase change against the postulates proposed by Darwiche et al. and Lehmann.