Predictive laws of association in statistics and physics

In the present paper we face the problem of estimating cell probabilities in the case of a two-dimensional contingency table from a predictive point of view. The solution is given by a double stochastic process. The first subprocess, the unobservable one, is supposed to be exchangeable and invariant. For the second subprocess, the observable one, we suppose it is independent conditional on the first one.     

Depression and Suicidal Ideation After Predictive Testing for Huntington's Disease: A Two-Year Follow-up Study

The present study reports a two-year follow-up of psychological effects of predictive testing for Huntington's disease. Questionnaires assessing depression, general health, well-being, self injurious behavior, life satisfaction, and lifestyle were completed by 35 carriers and 58 non-carriers before the predictive test, and 2, 6, 12, and 24 months afterwards. Both carriers and non-carriers showed high suicidal ideation before the predictive testing. Depression scores and frequency of suicidal thoughts increased for carriers, compared to non-carriers, over time. There were no differences regarding life satisfaction or life style between carriers and non-carriers. Predictive testing was beneficial in reducing overall ill-health symptoms and increasing well-being for those initially expressing concern about Huntington's disease. The importance of assessing suicidal ideation and of continuing to provide adequate support is emphasized.     

Choking under pressure and working memory capacity: When performance pressure reduces fluid intelligence

Recent findings (Beilock & Carr, 2005) have demonstrated that only individuals with a high working memory capacity (WMC) “choke under pressure” on math problems with high working memory demands. This suggests that performance pressure hinders those who are the most qualified to succeed, because it consumes the WMC they usually rely on to achieve superior performance. This puts into question the use of performance in high-pressure situations as a means of distinguishing individuals with lesser or greater WMC potentials. While addressing several limitations of past research, we offer evidence that such choking (1) occurs only in individuals with high WMC, because of their anxiety-ridden perceptions of high-stakes situations, and (2) is not confined to tasks involving acquired skills and knowledge, but encompasses fluid reasoning abilities or intelligence (Gf). These findings have strong implications for assessments of people’s intellectual capacities in academic, clinical, work, and research settings.