Hindsight bias doesn't always come easy: causal models, cognitive effort, and creeping determinism

Creeping determinism, a form of hindsight bias, refers to people's hindsight perceptions of events as being determined or inevitable. This article proposes, on the basis of a causal-model theory of creeping determinism, that the underlying processes are effortful, and hence creeping determinism should disappear when individuals lack the cognitive resources to make sense of an outcome. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants were asked to read a scenario while they were under either low or high processing load. Participants who had the cognitive resources to make sense of the outcome perceived it as more probable and necessary than did participants under high processing load or participants who did not receive outcome information. Experiment 3 was designed to separate 2 postulated subprocesses and showed that the attenuating effect of processing load on hindsight bias is not due to a disruption of the retrieval of potential causal antecedents but to a disruption of their evaluation. Together the 3 experiments show that the processes underlying creeping determinism are effortful, and they highlight the crucial role of causal reasoning in the perception of past events.     

Ingroup bias in the minimal group paradigm shown by three‐person groups with high or low state self‐esteem

From social identity theory a negative relation between self‐esteem and ingroup bias can be deducted. Much research has been done to test this proposition and largely failed to confirm this relation. Unlike many existing studies, we conducted an experiment in which (a) self‐esteem is not conceived as a trait entity but much more situation‐specific, (b) the self‐esteem manipulation is not relative to the outgroup, and (c) the measure of intergroup differentiation is unrelated to the self‐esteem manipulation. We categorised our participants into two arbitrary minimal groups (Klee or Kandinsky fans) and afterwards formed homogeneous three‐person groups (all persons were either Klee or Kandinsky fans). We manipulated the state self‐esteem of these real groups by giving them positive or negative feedback concerning their performance in a problem‐solving task. Afterwards, all groups distributed money to ingroup and outgroup members via Tajfel distribution matrices. Low state self‐esteem groups were found to exhibit stronger ingroup bias than high state self‐esteem groups overall, although the variability of intergroup discrimination was larger in the low state self‐esteem groups, pointing to more heterogeneous reactions to low state self‐esteem. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Foreseeability and self-interest as moral judgment factors with normal and acting-out adolescent boys

Thirty-two male adolescents participated in a study of moral judgment and its relationship to social functioning. Half of the subjects were selected for frequent acting-out, aggressive behavior, and half were selected from regular eighth-grade classes and matched for intelligence. The moral stories featured good intentions with bad outcomes and varied as to whether or not the outcome was foreseeable and in the actor's self-interest. Subjects judged the actor, attributed judgments to adults, and casually explained the outcome. The difference in judgments between foreseeable and nonforeseeable actions was greater for “normal” subjects. Furthermore, although normal subjects judged foreseeable actions more harshly than acting-out subjects, the reverse was true for nonforeseeable actions. Judgments attributed to adults were harsher than subjects' own judgments, and this difference was greater for acting-out subjects. Causal attributions (personal vs. situational) and other reasoning related strongly to the foreseeability and self-interest factors but not to subject group.     

Undoing suggestive influence on memory: The reversibility of the eyewitness misinformation effect

Presenting inconsistent postevent information about a witnessed incident typically decreases the accuracy of memory reports concerning that event (the misinformation effect). Surprisingly, the reversibility of the effect (after an initial occurrence) has remained largely unexplored. Based on a memory conversion theoretical framework and associated refined assessment strategy, we report three experiments to demonstrate that suggestive influence can be completely undone. Initially established misinformation effects were eliminated - even after a period of 5weeks (Exp. 3) - through (a) an enlightenment procedure ensuring an adequate representation of the memory task as a search for potentially two contradictory items (instead of "the" single "correct" answer) and (b) using a memory state test that unconfounds the performance contributions of item and source memory by assessing them separately. Specifically, memory for original event details that were the target of misinformation was restored to the level of non-misled control performance, and even beyond (Exp. 3). This remarkable reversibility of misinformation influence highlights the central role of memory conversion processes in the misinformation effect (but does not principally exclude the contribution of traditional interference processes). We discuss the compatibility of our findings with previous research and make suggestions for real-world eyewitness interrogation.     

Associations of positive and negative life changes with well-being in young and middle-aged adult cancer survivors

Both positive and negative changes are commonly reported by cancer survivors, and both may impact quality of life. Yet few studies have directly compared the associations of positive and negative changes across multiple life domains with multiple aspects of well-being. This study examined positive and negative changes and their conjoint relation to a range of well-being indices. We used correlational and regression analyses of data from 237 young to middle aged (X?=?45.3?years) cancer survivors, several years after treatment. Measures included demographic and medical variables, medical post-cancer positive and negative changes on multiple life domains, and a range of positive and negative adjustment indices. Demographic factors, especially income, related to both positive and negative outcomes. On average, participants reported no change on most life domains, although modest amounts of both positive and negative changes were reported. Negative change, rather than positive change, was closely associated with cancer survivors' adjustment. Detailed measurement of both positive and negative changes - as well as lack of change - is important to advance understanding of cancer's impact on survivors.     

Comparing the influence of directly vs. indirectly encountered post-event misinformation on eyewitness remembering

Some research has found a stronger influence of directly (face-to-face; co-witness; ‘social’) vs. indirectly (through written reports, ‘non-social’) encountered post-event misinformation on eyewitness memory reports, whereas other research finds no (big) difference. We argue and demonstrate that a crucial but so far neglected variable underlying this difference is memory for the misleading information itself. In a study with N = 120 participants who encountered misinformation directly or indirectly, we found misinformation retention (as assessed in a separate test) to be positively associated with a broad range of misinformation effects. Influence type (direct vs. indirect), however, did not moderate the misinformation effect in terms of memory for original details, and misinformation endorsement was even weaker in the direct influence condition. In our view, these findings reflect differential conversion of retained misinformation into test performance. Other than this, influence type had essentially no effects on remembering; nor did an additional post-warning manipulation.     

Delaware School Climate Survey-Student: its factor structure, concurrent validity, and reliability

The Delaware School Climate Survey—Student (DSCS—S) was developed to provide schools with a brief and psychometrically sound student survey for assessing school climate, particularly the dimensions of social support and structure. Confirmatory factor analyses, conducted on a sample of 11,780 students in 85 schools, showed that a bifactor model consisting of five specific factors and one general factor (School Climate) best represented the data. Those five factors are represented in five subscales of the DSCS—S: Teacher-Student Relations, Student-Student Relations, Fairness of Rules, Liking of School, and School Safety. The factor structure was shown to be stable across grade levels (i.e., elementary, middle, and high school), racial-ethnic groups (i.e., Caucasian, African American, and Hispanic), and gender. As evidence of the survey's concurrent validity, scores for each of the five subscales and the total scale correlated moderately, across groups and at the school level, with academic achievement and suspensions and expulsions.     

The Rabbit and The Duck: Antinomic unity in Dostoevskij, the Russian religious tradition, and Mikhail Bakhtin

At the core of Dostoevskij’s philosophy and theology lies a concept according to which the Truth (Istina) is antinomical: it contains both a thesis and its antithesis without expectation of synthesis. This concept can be traced to Eastern Patristics. After Dostoevskij, the theory of antinomies was elaborated by 20th century Russian religious thinkers such as Pavel Florenskij, Sergej Bulgakov, Nikolaj Berdjaev, Semën Frank, and Vladimir Losskij. Their ideas help us to understand that Dostoevskij’s dialogism, made famous in its secular guise by Bakhtin, has a theological underpinning. Dostoevskij’s exposition of conflicting truths should therefore be seen not as a case of irresolvable contradiction or paradox but as an organic wholeness.     

Using the Interactive Systems Framework to Support a Quality Improvement Approach to Dissemination of Evidence-Based Strategies to Promote Early Detection of Breast Cancer: Planning a Comprehensive Dynamic Trial

Dissemination efforts must optimize interventions for new settings and populations. As such, dissemination research should incorporate principles of quality improvement. Comprehensive Dynamic Trial (CDT) designs examine how information gained during dissemination may be used to modify interventions and improve performance. Although CDT may offer distinct advantages over static designs, organizing the many necessary roles and activities is a significant challenge. In this article, we discuss use of the Interactive Systems Framework for Dissemination and Implementation to systematically implement a CDT. Specifically, we describe “Bronx ACCESS”, a program designed to disseminate evidence‐based strategies to promote adherence to mammography guidelines. In Bronx ACCESS, the Intervention Delivery System will elicit information needed to adapt strategies to specific settings and circumstances. The Intervention Synthesis and Translation System will use this information to test changes to strategies through “embedded experiments”. The Intervention Support System will build local capacities found to be necessary for intervention institutionalization. Simulation modeling will be used to integrate findings across systems. Results will inform on‐going policy debate about interventions needed to promote population‐level screening. More generally, this project is intended to advance understanding of research paradigms necessary to study dissemination. Special Issue: Advances in Bridging Research and Practice Using the Interactive System Framework for Dissemination and Implementation; Guest Editors: Abraham Wandersman, Paul Flaspohler, Catherine A. Lesesne, Richard Puddy; Action Editor: Emilie Phillips Smith