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We introduce the fundamental tenets of Bayesian inference, which derive from two basic laws of probability theory. We cover the interpretation of probabilities, discrete and continuous versions of Bayes’ rule, parameter estimation, and model comparison. Using seven worked examples, we illustrate these principles and set up some of the technical background for the rest of this special issue of Psychonomic Bulletin & Review. Supplemental material is available via https://osf.io/wskex/. 相似文献
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Joachim Aufderheide 《British Journal for the History of Philosophy》2013,21(5):817-837
Plato's Philebus contains an intricate difficulty. Plato seems to hold both (a) that all pleasures are processes of becoming, a crucial premise in the argument that no pleasure is good (53c–55c) and (b) that some pleasures contribute in their own right to the goodness of the best life (64c–67b). Since it seems also plausible that only things which are good can contribute to the goodness of the best life in their own right, Plato's view seems to be inconsistent. Interpreters usually reject either (a) or (b). As Plato seems firmly committed to both (a) and (b), I propose a third way of dealing with the inconsistency. The apparent inconsistency highlights a vital contrast between what is independently good (good per se), what is dependently good (good through participating in what is independently good), and what is derivatively good (good through standing in a certain relation to dependent goods). I argue that while pleasure's being a process of becoming marks it out as derivatively good, some kinds of pleasure are also dependent goods in virtue of their objects – irrespective of their being processes of becoming. 相似文献
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Strong scientific theories give coherence to a body of research findings, make precise predictions about key phenomena, and guide the search for new discoveries. In social psychology, some contemporary theories fall short of this ideal. Mini-theories are prevalent (cf. Van Lange, Higgins, & Kruglanski, 2011), many predictions are merely directional (like this one!) and theorizing post-hoc. Guided by experimental reasoning, many researchers emphasize—and reify—empirical differences. Taking the experimental method as an epistemological gold standard, they regard comparative thinking as a criterion of rational thinking. Using examples from social judgment and decision making, we show how comparative reasoning can constrain theoretical development and bias assessments of human rationality. To encourage movement toward stronger theory, we describe a model of inductive reasoning in social contexts. 相似文献
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Whereas negative effects of groups on individual motivation have been reported for many years, recent research has begun to show when and why working in a group can produce motivation gains compared to individual work. So far, this evidence has been limited to laboratory settings and rather simple tasks. Using data from swimming competitions at the 2008 Olympics, evidence is presented that motivation gains in groups also occur in field settings with more complex tasks. Based on an instrumentality × value approach, we expect that late positions in a relay trigger motivation gains in groups due to an increase in perceived indispensability for the group outcome. This idea has been initially tested in a pilot study with competitive swimmers, demonstrating that perceived indispensability for the relay outcome indeed increases with later serial positions in a relay. Moreover, the main study with data from the 2008 Olympics revealed performance times consistent with this pattern of indispensability perceptions: while starting swimmers in the swimming relays performed at similar levels as in their individual competitions, swimmers at the later positions showed higher performance in the relay compared to their individual competition heats. 相似文献
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We examined whether and to what extent a sequence of finger movements can be learned and transferred to the untrained hand according to the muscle homology depending on the relative salience of response locations and effectors. Participants performed a discrete sequence production task, in which they were asked to learn a sequence of either key locations or of finger movements. Each training block was followed by a transfer block in which responding with the opposite hand was required. Before the last transfer block participants received an unexpected instruction. They had to reproduce the sequence of key locations instead of the sequence of finger movements and conversely, the sequence of finger movements instead of the sequence of key locations. The results do not support the existence of a sequence representation for the order of finger movements irrespective of the hand used. 相似文献
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In this article a continuous-time stochastic model (the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process) is presented to model the perpetually altering states of the core affect, which is a 2-dimensional concept underlying all our affective experiences. The process model that we propose can account for the temporal changes in core affect on the latent level. The key parameters of the model are the average position (also called home base), the variances and covariances of the process, and the regulatory mechanisms that keep the process in the vicinity of the average position. To account for individual differences, the model is extended hierarchically. A particularly novel contribution is that in principle all parameters of the stochastic process (not only the mean but also its variance and the regulatory parameters) are allowed to differ between individuals. In this way, the aim is to understand the affective dynamics of single individuals and at the same time investigate how these individuals differ from one another. The final model is a continuous-time state-space model for repeated measurement data taken at possibly irregular time points. Both time-invariant and time-varying covariates can be included to investigate sources of individual differences. As an illustration, the model is applied to a diary study measuring core affect repeatedly for several individuals (thereby generating intensive longitudinal data). 相似文献
190.
Joachim Trebbe Philomen Schoenhagen 《Journal of International Migration and Integration》2011,12(4):411-428
Communication research highlights deficiencies in the media’s representation of migrants. The study at hand analyzes these deficiencies from the perspective of the migrants concerned: How do they perceive their representation in the media, especially on television? And how do they assess the perceived situation with regard to immigrant integration? This topic has been examined in a qualitative pilot study based on six group discussions amongst migrants and Swiss citizens with an immigration background in the German-, French-, and Italian-speaking parts of Switzerland. The results show a high discrepancy between the desire for more presence and participation on the one hand, and the wish to stand in the spotlight less often, on the other hand. 相似文献