Illusory correlations in graphological inference

The authors investigate the illusory correlation phenomenon as a possible contributor to the persistence of graphology's use to predict personality. Participants unfamiliar with graphology inspected handwriting samples paired with fabricated personality profiles. In Experiment 1, handwriting samples and personality profiles were randomly paired. In Experiment 2, discernible correlations near unity were set between targeted handwriting-feature-personality-trait pairs in a congruent or incongruent direction with graphologists' claims. In both experiments, participants' judgments of the correlation between designated handwriting-feature-personality-trait pairs agreed with graphologists' claims, even after controlling for their actual statistical association. Semantic association between words used to describe handwriting features and personality traits was the source of biases in perceived correlation. Results may partially account for continued use of graphology despite overwhelming evidence against its predictive validity.     

Effects of stimulus variation on the reinforcing capability of nonpreferred stimuli

We examined the effects of stimulus (reinforcer) variation in several different contexts. In Study 1, we identified high-quality (HQ) and low-quality (LQ) stimuli based on results of a paired-stimulus assessment and examined their effects when available under concurrent-reinforcement schedules for 8 participants. No participants showed preference for the LQ stimuli when compared singly or in a varied arrangement to the HQ stimulus. In Study 2, we identified nonpreferred (NP) stimuli based on results of a single-stimulus assessment and examined their effects when available under single-reinforcement schedules for 3 participants. Results of Study 2 were mixed. One participant's data indicated that the varied presentation of NP stimuli produced a modest improvement in performance over that observed when the stimuli were presented singly. By contrast, a second participant's data showed no facilitative effect for the varied delivery of NP stimuli and that the inclusion of an HQ stimulus in the varied arrangement obscured the reinforcing effects of the HQ stimulus. The 3rd participant's data showed no effect for the varied delivery of NP stimuli but an apparent facilitative effect when an HQ stimulus was included in the varied arrangement, which was attributable solely to the presence of the HQ stimulus.     

Missing information in multiple-cue probability learning

In a multiple-cue probability learning task, participants learned to use six discrete symptoms (i.e., cues) to diagnose which of three possible flu strains a hypothetical patient suffered from. For some patients, information regarding the status of certain symptoms was not available. Various possible ways in which the missing cue information might be processed were distinguished and tested in a series of three experiments (Ns = 80, 109, and 61). The results suggest that the judged probability of the outcome variable (i.e., flu strain) was assessed by "filling in" the missing cue information with a mean value based on previous observations. The predictions of other methods of processing missing cue information are inconsistent with the data.     

Shattering the illusion of control: Multi-shot versus single-shot gambles

The illusion of control refers to a phenomenon whereby people believe their chances of success at a task are greater than would be warranted by objective analysis. This article raises two questions. First, how robust is the illusion of control? Second, how might the illusion be ‘shattered?’ Previous experimental demonstrations involved situations that can be likened to unique or single-shot gambles. If, however, the phenomenon is robust, it should occur in repeated or multi-shot gambles in which the outcome depends on a series of gambles involving the same underlying random process. It should also appear in single-shot gambles that are framed so as to superficially resemble multi-shot gambles. We label this the strong illusion of control hypothesis. On the other hand, because people have a better appreciation of probabilistic concepts in tasks they are able to represent as relative frequencies, the introduction of a multi-shot or ‘pseudo-multi-shot’ context might cue people to the random nature of the task, thereby shattering the illusion. The weak illusion of control hypothesis holds that the illusion of control will occur in single-shot but not in multi-shot or pseudo-multi-shot gambles. Two studies are reported that support the weak hypothesis. Alternative explanations are considered and implications are discussed.     

Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment.

This article concerns a class of experimental manipulations that require people to generate explanations or imagine scenarios. A review of studies using such manipulations indicates that people who explain or imagine a possibility then express greater confidence in the truth of that possibility. It is argued that this effect results from the approach people take in the explanation or imagination task: They temporarily assume that the hypothesis is true and assess how plausibly it can account for the relevant evidence. From this view, any task that requires that a hypothesis be treated as if it were true is sufficient to increase confidence in the truth of that hypothesis. Such tasks cause increased confidence in the hypothesis at the expense of viable alternatives because of changes in problem representation, evidence evaluation, and information search that take place when the hypothesis is temporarily treated as if it were true.     

Identity categories and transformational paths for face changes across the age spectrum

How faces change across lengthy time periods and whether the changing appearance of a face functions as an identity category was investigated in two experiments. In Experiment 1, the faces of 15 individuals were multidimensionally scaled at each of seven age epochs (roughly <6 months to 75 years of age) and correlated with the same persons, but at different ages. In Experiment 2, three individuals at each of seven age epochs were multidimensionally scaled, and analyses explored the conceptual structure and transformational path of each person within the space. The results revealed that even the earliest age epochs (<6 months) were correlated with the later epochs, except for the most extreme age, with the correlation highest at intermediate ages. Transformational paths were found that emerged and terminated at haphazard points in the space. Results are discussed in terms of principled change in categories whose members systematically change across their life cycle, including suggestions for the need to incorporate systematic change in current theories of categorization.     

Cost Analysis of Integrated Behavioral Health in a Large Primary Care Practice

A residency-based Family Medicine outpatient clinic chose to implement an integrated behavioral health care program in a large primary care clinic in the Southeast to improve patient access to behavioral health care. We hypothesized that embedding a BHP in a primary care setting would be a cost neutral intervention. We implemented a prospective cohort design and included expenses from both inpatient and outpatient visits. We implemented a mixed effects linear regression model to evaluate pre- and post-BHP exposure costs. A total of 1256 patients were identified in the post-BHP exposure period that had more than one-year post-exposure. After applying exclusion criteria, there were 926 patients included in analysis. These patient had an average total cost during the one-year pre-BHP exposure period of $5113 (SD = 7712) and one-year post-BHP exposure period of $5462 (SD = 7813). Our analysis shows a relatively cost neutral impact following the introduction of BHPs in a primary care setting. The results of this study provide a gauge for future planning of services.

     

Explaining the relation between thin ideal internalization and body dissatisfaction among college women: the roles of social comparison and body surveillance

Sociocultural models of disordered eating lack comprehensive explanations as to how thin ideal internalization leads to body dissatisfaction. This study examined two social psychological theories as explanations of this relation, namely social comparison and objectification theories, in a sample of 265 women attending a Southeastern university. Social comparison (both general and appearance-related) and body surveillance (the indicator of objectification) were tested as mediators of the relation between thin ideal internalization and body dissatisfaction using bootstrapping analyses. Results indicated that body surveillance was a significant specific mediator of this relation; however, neither operationalization of social comparison emerged as such. Results serve to elaborate upon the sociocultural model of disordered eating by providing a more comprehensive understanding of the processes by which thin ideal internalization manifests itself in body dissatisfaction. The current findings also highlight the importance of targeting body surveillance in clinical settings.