Switching Sides: Exploring Violent Extremist Intergroup Migration Across Hostile Ideologies

Violent extremists and terrorists often abandon their associates to join like-minded groups (i.e., with the same ideology or cause) or leave violent activism altogether (i.e., disengage or deradicalize). Sometimes, however, militants might switch between groups with mutually exclusive and hostile ideologies (e.g., from left-wing to right-wing extremism or from right-wing extremism to Salafi-jihadism). To explain intergroup migration, social identity theory (SIT) stipulates individual mobility as a strategy for status enhancement. However, SIT's applicability to this highly specific scenario of intergroup migration across hostile ideologies has not previously been explored. Several theoretical caveats could limit SIT's explanatory value here, such as potential group impermeability, lack of realistic status enhancement, and high social identity salience with the original ingroup. To assess SIT's applicability, this article uses four well-documented individual case studies of violent extremist intergroup migration across hostile ideologies in Germany. The article shows that SIT's individual mobility strategy largely applies to this scenario, at least in the presented case studies.     

Analytic cognitive style predicts religious and paranormal belief

An analytic cognitive style denotes a propensity to set aside highly salient intuitions when engaging in problem solving. We assess the hypothesis that an analytic cognitive style is associated with a history of questioning, altering, and rejecting (i.e., unbelieving) supernatural claims, both religious and paranormal. In two studies, we examined associations of God beliefs, religious engagement (attendance at religious services, praying, etc.), conventional religious beliefs (heaven, miracles, etc.) and paranormal beliefs (extrasensory perception, levitation, etc.) with performance measures of cognitive ability and analytic cognitive style. An analytic cognitive style negatively predicted both religious and paranormal beliefs when controlling for cognitive ability as well as religious engagement, sex, age, political ideology, and education. Participants more willing to engage in analytic reasoning were less likely to endorse supernatural beliefs. Further, an association between analytic cognitive style and religious engagement was mediated by religious beliefs, suggesting that an analytic cognitive style negatively affects religious engagement via lower acceptance of conventional religious beliefs. Results for types of God belief indicate that the association between an analytic cognitive style and God beliefs is more nuanced than mere acceptance and rejection, but also includes adopting less conventional God beliefs, such as Pantheism or Deism. Our data are consistent with the idea that two people who share the same cognitive ability, education, political ideology, sex, age and level of religious engagement can acquire very different sets of beliefs about the world if they differ in their propensity to think analytically.     

From Gaming to Hating: Extreme-Right Ideological Indoctrination and Mobilization for Violence of Children on Online Gaming Platforms

As a consequence of numerous extreme-right terror attacks in which the perpetrators posted their manifestos and attack life streams on online platforms adjacent to the video gaming community, as well as radicalized within that environment to a significant degree (e.g., Christchurch, New Zealand; Halle, Germany), increasing scholarly and policymaker interest is focusing on far-right radicalization and recruitment within online video game environments. Yet little empirical insights exist about the specific engagement between right-wing extremists and their potential recruits on these platforms. This study presents findings from a qualitative exploration of German police-investigation files for two children who radicalized on gaming platforms to become involved in extreme-right criminal behavior, including the plotting of a terrorist attack. The study demonstrates the importance of online and offline factor interaction, especially regarding the role of familiar criminogenic factors, as well as the social–emotional bonding between potential recruits and extremist gamers created through shared gaming experiences that lead to high-intensity extremist radicalization aimed at offline behavioral changes. The study did not find evidence for strategic organizational far-right recruitment campaigns, but rather multidirectional social-networking processes which were also initiated by the potential recruits.     

Subjective probability of disjunctive hypotheses: local-weight models for decomposition of evidential support

When the probability of a single member of a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive possibilities is judged, its alternatives are evaluated as a composite "residual" hypothesis. Support theory (Rottenstreich & Tversky, 1997; Tversky & Koehler, 1994) implies that the process of packing alternatives together in the residual reduces the perceived evidential support for the set of alternatives and consequently inflates the judged probability of the focal hypothesis. Previous work has investigated the global weights that determine the extent to which the overall evidential support for the alternatives is discounted by this packing operation (Koehler, Brenner, & Tversky, 1997). In the present investigation, we analyze this issue in greater detail, examining the local weights that measure the specific contribution of each component hypothesis included implicitly in the residual. We describe a procedure for estimating local weights and introduce a set of plausible properties that impose systematic ordinal relationships among local weights. Results from four experiments testing these properties are reported, and a local-weight model is developed that accounts for nearly all of the variance in the probability judgments in these empirical tests. Local weights appear to be sensitive both to the individual component with which they are associated and to the residual hypothesis in which the component resides.     

The effects of recoding and presentation format on recency and suffix effects

The primary linguistic theory of Shand and Klima (1981) hypothesizes that stimuli that cannot be directly processed without recoding are not in the primary linguistic mode of the subject and thus should lead to lesser recency and associated suffix effects. In three experiments, different normal hearing subjects learned to pair American Sign Language (ASL) stimuli, visual "quasivocables" (QVs), word-like letter strings, and auditory QVs with common English words. In the first experiment, the subjects were given sequences of ASL or QV stimuli and required to recall the associated words in strict serial order. In two other experiments involving auditory and visual presentation, respectively, subjects who had never been given paired associate training were required to recall the English words that had previously been associated with the ASL and QV stimuli, in a standard suffix paradigm. The results showed recency and suffix effects to be present only with auditorily presented QVs and words. Contrary to the predictions of the primary linguistic hypothesis, greater recency and larger suffix effects were present with the auditory QVs than with the auditory words, although the QVs were not primary linguistic and the task involved forced recoding. Previous results showing recency with ASL stimuli in normal subjects were not replicated. It is concluded that recency and suffix effects are not related either to the primary linguistic mode of the subject or to stimulus recoding, as we and Shand and Klima have defined them.     

Person theories: their temporal stability and relation to intertrait inferences

This article tests whether individual differences in inferring one trait from another (intertrait inferences) can be linked to lay beliefs about the malleability of personality (person theories). It finds that holding the belief that personality is malleable (incremental theory) rather than fixed (entity theory) at the time of inferences is associated with less extreme inferences involving semantically related (but not unrelated) traits. Although person theories have been assumed to be stable over time, existing short-term test-retest coefficients do not capture their instability over a longer period. These results can illuminate interrater discrepancies in assessments of personality pathology and job performance, enrich understanding of such phenomena as stereotyping and impression formation, refine the interpretation of past research involving person theories, and inform research planning.     

Choice strategies in multiple-cue probability learning

Choice strategies for selecting among outcomes in multiple-cue probability learning were investigated using a simulated medical diagnosis task. Expected choice probabilities (the proportion of times each outcome was selected given each cue pattern) under alternative choice strategies were constructed from corresponding observed judged probabilities (of each outcome given each cue pattern) and compared with observed choice probabilities. Most of the participants were inferred to have responded by using a deterministic strategy, in which the outcome with the higher judged probability is consistently chosen, rather than a probabilistic strategy, in which an outcome is chosen with a probability equal to its judged probability. Extended practice in the learning environment did not affect choice strategy selection, contrary to reports from previous studies, results of which may instead be attributable to changes with practice in the variability and extremity of the perceived probabilities on which the choices were based.     

RegRand: Statistical software for the multiple-baseline design

RegRand (Version 1.0) is Macintosh-based software that enables a researcher to conduct a nonparametric statistical analysis of the data from Koehler and Levin’s (1998) recently described regulated randomization single-case multiple-baseline design. Regulated randomization design and analysis principles are reviewed in relation to an educational research application and a step-by-step illustration of them in relation to the RegRand program is presented.